S&P 500 Chart Telegraphs Earnings Season & FOMC Minutes (SPY)

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Stocks are trying to find their footing after yesterday’s disappointing drop.  The good news is that the charts we featured told you not to chase that gap-up on Tuesday.  We are tracking the daily buy/sell pivot points on the SPDR S&P 500 (NYSEMKT: SPY) as the most liquid equity ETF on the market to help traders and investors avoid buying at the wrong time or shorting just before a intraday rally.

Erlanger Value Lines are designed to identify key levels for the intraday trader or for anyone trying to establish a new position during trading hours. The Value Lines fall into three categories: Support and Resistance, Extreme values and Range values. From a practical point of view, the Value Lines can act as targets and triggers for short-term trades.

Some think it is uncanny how these levels stop or turn back short-term price swings. We do not. Why? Because both high frequency traders and program trades have built these levels into their models which cause them to gravitate to resistance, pivot or support along with range values like the 5 and 60 minute ranges. We have compiled here the daily chart, the daily analysis for traders to use, and then we have followed it with a general guideline after the daily commentary along with a sample chart.

For Wednesday’s S&P 500 SPDR chart analysis, Phil Erlanger said, Tuesday saw the SPY close below support. As we noted, ‘SPY had broken the 5 minute low of $136.01. Do not add to positions until SPY moves back above the 5 minute low. If resistance is broken, then one could short SPY as a reversal day off the open could occur.’ The short on the break of resistance turned out to be a great sell signal as SPY collapsed from that point onward. Today should be a range bound day until 2:00 p.m. EDT when the FOMC minutes are out. Use the value lines at that point to become more aggressive on the long or short side.”

The Erlanger Value Lines can be accessed via Erlanger Chart Room. The daily service gives investors and traders access to critical buy/sell levels on the S&P 500, NASDAQ, DJIA, Oil Services Index, gold & silver, any index or equity, as well as analyzing short-squeeze opportunities and more. For more information we direct you to sign up here.

General Notes:

  • If price moves above the red Resistance value line, then the intraday bias turns positive:
  • A positive bias reflects times when only long trades are considered.
  • If price moves below the green Support value line, then the intraday bias turns negative:
  • A negative bias reflects times when only short trades are considered.
  • If price remains within the green Support and red Resistance value lines, then the bias is neutral. The pivot line can be used to establish an intra Value Lines bias. Pivot to Support is negative and Pivot to Resistance is positive.
  • If price remains within the first hour high and low value lines, then the bias can also be viewed as neutral. This is especially true if the first hour range is inside the range set by the support and resistance value lines:
  • A neutral bias reflects times when both long and short trades may be considered or (depending on the traders style) a time for no trading. All Erlanger Value Lines can be used as short term target levels. This is especially true if a few are clustered together.

July 11, 2012