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Economic Fears May Undercut Fourth-Quarter Growth

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By Trey Thoelcke Published
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A growing number of analysts believe the stock market cannot match its 5% advance in the third quarter. Among the most obvious reasons are worries that the fiscal cliff will slow or reverse hiring among businesses that are concerned about tax increases, as well as a general nervousness about the national economy.

Many observers of political behavior in Washington do not expect decisions on taxes or the budget until well into 2013, particularly if one party controls the White House and another either the House or Senate. Add to that consumers who also worry about tax increases and their jobs. Europe will continue to be a factor. On a broad scale, the crisis there is in the news every day, which cannot help confidence in the United States. And most experts believe that the earnings of public companies with large Europe operations and sales will be undercut by the region’s recession, hindering the recovery of America’s export economy.

Indices may be at or near all-time highs, but that creates earnings multiples that will be hard to sustain, if even one or two of the concerns about the state of American business come true.

Douglas A. McIntyre

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About the Author Trey Thoelcke →

Trey has been an editor and author at 24/7 Wall St. for more than a decade, where he has published thousands of articles analyzing corporate earnings, dividend stocks, short interest, insider buying, private equity, and market trends. His comprehensive coverage spans the full spectrum of financial markets, from blue-chip stalwarts to emerging growth companies.

Beyond 24/7 Wall St., Trey has created and edited financial content for Benzinga and AOL's BloggingStocks, contributing additional hundreds of articles to the investment community. He previously oversaw the 24/7 Climate Insights site, managing editorial operations and content strategy, and currently oversees and creates content for My Investing News.

Trey's editorial expertise extends across multiple publishing environments. He served as production editor at Dearborn Financial Publishing and development editor at Kaplan, where he helped shape financial education materials. Earlier in his career, he worked as a writer-producer at SVE. His freelance editing portfolio includes work for prestigious clients such as Sage Publications, Rand McNally, the Institute for Supply Management, the American Library Association, Eggplant Literary Productions, and Spiegel.

Outside of financial journalism, Trey writes fiction and has been an active member of the writing community for years, overseeing a long-running critique group and moderating workshop sessions at regional conventions. He lives with his family in an old house in the Midwest.

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