Investing

Short Interest Plays Tricks Ahead of and into SolarCity Earnings

Maybe Elon Musk is the modern real-world version of Tony Stark as you are seeing all over the internet. As for his SolarCity Corp. (NASDAQ: SCTY), the still relatively new solar power installation outfit reported a hefty loss in the first quarter. As you will see below, it is very difficult to analyze the report and short sellers have been a serious influence here.

The good news is that SolarCity has now expanded its customer base by just over 100% from a year ago to over 57,400 customers. The company further said that it has now boosted its long-term contracted cash flows to $1.22 billion. That customer base represents 14% growth on a sequential quarterly basis. Estimated nominal contracted payments remaining rose by 10% sequentially to $1.222 billion.

SolarCity’s core operating lease revenue was $15.1 million, up 85% from a year ago, and total revenue grew 21% year-over-year to $30.0 million.

Gross Profit was up 25% from a year ago to $12.7 million, yielding a gross profit margin of 42%. Total operating expenses rose to $34.5 million versus $24.7 million a year ago, while the loss from operations was wider at $21.8 million versus $14.6 million a year ago. Despite posting a net loss, the net increase in cash was $40.197 million in the first quarter of 2013 versus a gain of over $110 million in the fourth quarter of 2012 due to equity being issued in the last two quarters.

Guidance is being put as follows: $16 to $18 million in operating lease revenue, $5 to $10 million in solar energy systems sale revenue, $38 to $42 million in operating expenses, and 40% to 55% in gross margin. All guidance is on a GAAP basis, and the company earlier noted that it feels non-GAAP measurements better reflect its long-term efforts.

Shares were up a whopping 24% at $35.88 in regular trading ahead of earnings and the stock is giving back about 5% at $34.25 in the after-hours. SolarCity’s market cap at the close was $2.7 billion post-IPO range is $9.20 to $39.00 and that high was hit on Monday. NASDAQ showed that the April 30 short interest was a record high at 3.58 million shares.

As a reminder, Elon Musk is the Chairman at SolarCity. The co-founders are CEO Lyndon Rive and COO/CTO Peter Rive. Before considering any changes from analysts, investors need to know that SolarCity is expected to keep losing money. Sales are expected to rise over 30% to $169.4 million in 2013 and are expected to rise over 50% to $258 million in 2014. That being said, Thomson Reuters has the consensus earnings estimates at -$1.30 EPS in 2013 and -$1.10 EPS in 2014.

Be advised that analysts had only a consensus price target of $23 without knowing the impact from earnings. The highest analyst price target was only $27, so investors will have to expect that valuation downgrades are coming or that analysts will try to chase their price targets higher.

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