This weekend we covered something that should have been more controversial than it was made out to be. That would be whether it was safe to invest in emerging markets. It so happened that Barron’s wrote a 2,500-word article covering India, with the thesis that India is open for business again.
The first reaction in any rational investor’s mind would be that India’s future is looking better for investors than it did last year. That being said, the future is brighter. After all, India was in the midst of a currency crisis at the time.
That all sounds great for the exchange traded funds that cover India. Just one problem. This is already reflected in the markets. The time to buy was during that currency crisis and when things looked bleak. Remember the lesson of Baron Rothschild, and more recently by Templeton’s Mark Mobius: invest when there is blood in the streets!
In this modern world, you often do not get a real chance of people’s blood in the streets. Maybe that blood is the tears of investors and local merchants, and then the central banks have to act to do the right thing even if they would prefer not to do the right thing.
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Barron’s was right about India. The problem is simply in the timing. Investors can probably make money over the long haul, so long as emerging markets and the United States do not take a major dip out of the blue. And maybe if Russia’s boots on the ground regarding Ukraine do not go too far inland into the nation.
WisdomTree India Earnings (NYSEMKT: EPI) was down 0.3% at $19.14 in mid-afternoon trading on Monday. Again, that is up close to 50% from the bottom of $12.99 during the panic selling. The 52-week high is also just above at $19.53. Again, much of the good news is priced in.
The India Fund Inc. (NYSE: IFN) was also down 0.3% at $22.18, even though it trades at a 10% discount to its net asset value.
PowerShares India (NYSEMKT: PIN) was down by 0.7% to $18.64. Also, the Market Vectors India Small-Cap ETF (NYSEMKT: SCIF) was down 0.9% at $37.00 in mid-afternoon trading on Monday, and the small-cap ETF is still up 67% from its 52-week low.
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