Monday was historic. The Dow Jones had a 7% intraday trading range. The Nasdaq was even more volatile with a 9% intraday trading range. The S&P 500 had gained more than 2% in the space of 12 minutes at one point, and still closed down 4%.
These types of movements are not one offs. They usually come in clusters. And it is very likely that, until the Federal Reserve reassures markets that a rate hike is absolutely off the table, the bottom is not in yet. An announcement of “QE4” may even be necessary. That said, here are four stocks that investors should sell now, especially if the markets open gap up Tuesday morning.
Alibaba Group Holding Ltd. (NYSE: BABA) is not only merely associated with China in the minds of traders, 82% of its revenues come from Chinese commerce. The Chinese yuan supply has increased by a factor of five in 10 years. The rate of increase is now stalling, which is what brings on busts after huge booms. No other central bank has printed more money than China has, with the exception of Venezuela, which is currently in the throes of hyperinflation. The Fed does not even come close to the People’s Bank of China in terms of money supply expansion. The Chinese stock market crash could be the biggest in history, considering the amount of money that has fueled it. That will bleed into the Chinese economy soon, which will bring Alibaba down with it.
Alibaba shares were up about 4% in Tuesday’s premarket to $68.41.
HomeAway Inc. (NASDAQ: AWAY) is a competitor of Airbnb, matching vacationers with owners of vacation rentals. There is nothing wrong with the business. It makes money. The problem is the valuation. With a market cap of $2.6 billion, its price-to-earnings ratio is over 27,000. Traders are either expecting it to grow by orders of magnitude, or they are just buying it to sell to someone else at a higher price. More likely the latter. Traders stop trying to do that when the trend reverses.
Shares were inactive in premarket trading, after closing at $27.28, down 6.6% on Monday.
Netflix Inc. (NASDAQ: NFLX) is a good company with good fundamentals. The only problem is, what has driven its stock price is not those fundamentals. The main thing that has driven it higher is the fact that it has been going higher. It is a positive feedback loop that is only sustained by money printing and zero interest rates. The new money finds something that it can trade for a profit and looks for winners. Netflix just happened to be one of the targets this time. Momentum stocks do not just stall. They continue to be momentum stocks, just in the other direction, until the parabola breaks, like a clean-up hitter and a fast ball.
Shares of Netflix were 8.2% higher in Tuesday’s premarket to $104.80.
Regeneron Pharmaceuticals Inc. (NASDAQ: REGN) is the Netflix of biotech, except it is less stable. Biotech has led stocks higher. Regeneron has led biotech in terms of stratospheric valuations. That valuation has been led higher by a single drug, a one-hit wonder called Eylea. The Regeneron parabola seems to have already topped, and it still has a price to earnings of 125. When investors realize that a single product does not justify such a price, and a wave of broad-based panic selling tends help with this process by bringing people to their senses, it could fall even faster.
In Tuesday’s premarket, Regeneron was up 3% to $520.01 per share.
All this applies as long as the Fed stays quiet. Any sign that they are considering more quantitative easing though, and trends can continue up, pushing all these stock even higher. It was QE that made most of this happen, and only QE can keep it going.
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