After last Friday’s 600+ point drop in the Dow, the reality is that the United States held up much better than Europe. Bank stocks were hammered and many European key stocks were down 10% to 25% — and many PIIGS and Euro ETFs were down over 10% on the unexpected Brexit news. Investors need to understand that extreme events cause extreme volatility.
While the dust may not settle immediately, maybe weeks rather than days, big drops often bring up big opportunities. 24/7 Wall St. has been looking for its own version of companies which may be immune or where selling pressure might have been too great. The team at Jefferies identified many U.S. stocks which may have sold off too much and represent long-term value and opportunity.
Again, investors should not expect the dust to settle here in a matter of days. Jefferies points out that understanding which companies’ fundamentals are most insulated (and most impacted) by the Brexit turmoil isn’t that difficult. What is more difficult is identifying which stocks the market might be overestimating or overly discounting the real fundamental risks.
The entire team of analysts at Jefferies gave a weekend synopsis of companies where the stock selloff in recent days may be too much of a selloff. Their view is that this presents medium-term and long-term opportunity. Again, these are not short-term trading calls for the immediate days ahead.
With the S&P down not that much last week and down over 4% from highs, Jefferies was looking through its list of Buy-rated stocks which were, heading into the Brexit vote, much further down from respective highs and which may have sold off substantially more than the broad market on fresh pressure. Over 20 were selected, and here are seven of the better known companies with some direct quotes on each.
Wal-Mart Stores, Inc. (NYSE: WMT) is rated as Buy at Jefferies with a $82.00 price target, versus a current price of $71.50 and a consensus analyst target of $69.11. The firm expects the impact of Brexit to be modestly negative on ASDA results, but Wal-Mart’s exposure to the UK is relatively small (ASDA accounted for about 8% of total company revenues and 6% of total company EBIT in 2015). If the UK goes into recession, Jefferies believes that ASDA could receive a trade-down benefit. The report said:
We think Walmart’s size and reliance on the US consumer positions it relatively well as a safe haven for investors reducing exposure in other areas.
Nike Inc. (NYSE: NKE) is rated as Buy with a $67.00 price target. On a relative basis, NIKE trades 11% below peers. Nike’s consensus analyst target price is $71.05 and it has a 52-week range of $47.25 to $68.19. Jefferies said:
At these levels we think you get two companies with top-notch execution, supported by strong cash flow power and shareholder returns, and multiple tiers of growth across regions. In NKE’s case, we remain especially bullish on China and the long term margin enhancing opportunities in direct to consumer and new manufacturing technologies.
Freeport-McMoRan Inc. (NYSE: FCX) is rated as Buy with a $15.00 price target. Freeport-McMoRan was last trading around $10.50, with a $10.91 consensus analyst target and with a 52-week range of $3.52 to $19.96. Jefferies likes this for free cash flow and leverage to a recovery in copper prices. Their report said:
Based on our analysis, Freeport’s share price is likely to go higher due to a combination of accretive asset sales, strong free cash flow in the second half of 2016 and 2017 due to volume growth, lower costs and capital spending, and longer-term upside to the copper price.
Superior Energy Services (NYSE: SPN) was rated as Buy with a $22.00 price target. Superior Energy was last seen trading around $18.00 after a 3% drop on Monday, versus a consensus analyst target price of $19.19 and a 52-week range of $8.25 to $21.11. Jefferies sees limited direct economic impact from Brexit. The firm said:
First, pressure on oil is more likely a function of the rising US Dollar and the risk-off trade than the risk of reduced demand from the EU (even if the EU dissolves further). Second, US exposure brings no foreign earnings translation into a stronger USD.
Abercrombie & Fitch Co. (NYSE: ANF) is rated as Buy and the firm has a $35.00 price target. A&F is a Jefferies Franchise Pick as well, and it is said to be best positioned in light of the sell-off. Abercrombie & Fitch has a consensus analyst price target of $22.95 and it has a 52-week range of $15.42 to $32.83. The Jefferies report said:
While the company does have significant European exposure (nearly 25% of sales), he believes the turn at A&F hinges largely on improvement in the US, which we think is well underway and is more a function of the company’s own initiatives than the macro environment.
Albemarle Corp. (NYSE: ALB) is rated as Buy with a $99.00 price target. This company is deemed as a domestic lithium winner that may care less about the Brexit as Albemarle was called a rare secular growth story. Jefferies said:
The uncertainty caused by Brexit does not change this. Lithium demand is growing with an increase in North America and the emerging markets, and we peg Albemarle’s exposure to battery grade material at 20%-25% of the lithium portfolio, technical grade at 30%-35%, with the rest a potpourri of alloys, pharma ingredients, ag intermediates and other niches.
KeyCorp (NYSE: KEY) is rated as Buy with a $14.50 price target at Jefferies. KeyCorp was down over 7% on Friday and was then down another 3% early on Monday at $10.72. Jefferies admits that financial stocks may not be able to avoid the fallout, but here is what they had to say:
While no financial stock will be immune to potential downside risk from lower rates and the potential absence of future rate hikes, this US-centric regional bank has fewer of the negative drivers relative to most peers. It is less sensitive to the absence of rate hikes, less sensitive to the energy sector, and importantly has pending EPS/ROE benefits from the pending acquisition of First Niagara (FNFG) that is expected to close in third quarter of 2016.
Here is a mixed view off 11 economists, analysts and market watchers on how they view the post-Brexit scen ahead.
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