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Earnings Previews: BlackBerry, CarMax, Carnival, FedEx

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The three major U.S. equity indexes closed higher Tuesday, with the Nasdaq adding 2.51%, the S&P 500 rising by 2.45% and the Dow Jones industrials closing up 2.15%. Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell sits down Wednesday for his first of two reports to Congress, the Senate first and the House on Thursday. Tuesday’s price bounce looked to be just a one-off, as index futures traded down between 1.5% and 1.8% in Wednesday’s premarket.

Before markets opened Tuesday morning, RV maker Winnebago beat estimates on both the top and bottom lines. Shares traded up about 1.6%.

We already previewed these earnings reports due out late Wednesday or early Thursday: Darden Restaurants, KB Home and Rite Aid.

Here is a look at four companies scheduled to release quarterly results after markets close Thursday or before they open on Friday.

BlackBerry

After touching a high of around 52-week high on this date last year, shares of BlackBerry Ltd. (NYSE: BB) have plunged by around 60%. The former cellphone maker has transitioned to a provider of security software and automotive (QNX) software. The company is scheduled to release quarterly results after markets close Thursday.

Over the past few weeks, the company has announced deals with the likes of Google and NXP Semiconductors, but it is unclear yet how those deals will pay off for shareholders. Then there is the stalled $600 million sale of mobile, messaging and wireless patent portfolio, another reason investors are cool to the stock. BlackBerry’s annual shareholders’ meeting is going to continue a battle begun last year when a shareholder “say-on-pay” proposal was defeated.

The company gets little attention from analysts, and what it does get is, at best, lukewarm. Of eight brokerages covering the stock, three have a Sell rating and the other five rate the stock at Hold. At a recent share price of around $5.25, the upside potential to a median price target of $7.00 is 33%. At the high price target of $8.00, the upside potential is 52.3%.


Fiscal first-quarter revenue is forecast at $159.78 million, which would be down 13.6% sequentially and 8.9% lower year over year. BlackBerry is expected to post an adjusted loss per share of $0.06, compared to the prior quarter’s per-share loss of $0.01 and worse than a loss per share of $0.05 in the year-ago quarter. For the 2023 fiscal year ending in February, the company is currently forecast to post a loss per share of $0.18 compared with EPS of $0.10 a year ago. Revenue is forecast to drop by nearly 4% to $689.66 million.

BlackBerry is not expected to post a profit in 2023, 2024 or 2025. The stock’s 52-week trading range is $4.70 to $13.57. BlackBerry does not pay a dividend. Total shareholder return for the past year is negative 58.8%.

CarMax

Shares of used car retailer CarMax Inc. (NYSE: KMX) have dropped about 22.5% of their value over the past 12 months. The company sells, services and finances purchases at some 220 locations around the United States. With investors currently focused on profitability and cash flow, CarMax has chosen to chase market share. The result is what one should expect: investors are not happy. Of course, the company could turn that unhappiness into smiles if the quarterly report were to be better than expected. CarMax shares quarterly results first thing Friday morning.

Of 19 analysts covering the stock, 11 have a Buy or Strong Buy rating and another seven have a Hold rating. At a share price of around $87.70, the upside potential based on a median price target of $105.50 is 20.3%. At the high price target of $165, the upside potential is about 88%.

First-quarter revenue is forecast at $9.15 billion, up 19.0% sequentially and 18.8% year over year. Adjusted earnings per share (EPS) are expected to come in at $1.53, up 55.9% sequentially but down 41.8% year over year. For the full 2023 fiscal year ending in February, CarMax is expected to report EPS of $5.83, down 15.2%, on sales of $33.45 billion, up 4.9%.

The stock trades at 15.0 times expected 2023 EPS, 14.2 times estimated 2024 earnings of $6.18 and 11.4 times estimated 2025 earnings of $7.67 per share. CarMax’s 52-week range is $84.37 to $155.98, and the low was posted last Thursday. CarMax does not pay a dividend. Total shareholder return over the past 12 months is negative 24.5%.

Carnival

Cruise line operator Carnival Corp. & PLC (NYSE: CCL) is set to report results before Friday’s opening bell. Over the past 12 months, Carnival stock has dropped about 66%. Like BlackBerry, Carnival stock posted its 52-week high one year ago and has been plummeting ever since. The cruise operator recently struck a deal with BetMGM to “deliver world-class retail and mobile sports betting and iGaming experiences to cruise ship guests.” The deal covers more than 50 ships U.S.-ported ships. Carnival reports quarterly results early Friday.

Analysts are taking a wait-and-see view of Carnival, with seven of 22 analysts having a Buy or Strong Buy rating and another 11 assigning a Hold rating. At a share price of around $9.60, the upside potential based on a median price target of $21.00 is 119%. At the high target of $38.00, the upside potential is 295.8%.
For the company’s second quarter of fiscal 2022, analysts have forecast revenue of $2.76 billion. That would be up 69.8% sequentially and by nearly 5,400% year over year. The company reported revenue of $50 million in the same period a year ago. The adjusted loss per share is forecast at $1.14, better than the prior quarter’s loss of $1.66 and also better than last year’s quarterly loss of $1.80 per share. For the full fiscal year ending in November, Carnival is expected to post a per-share loss of $2.49, compared with last year’s loss of $7.06 per share. Revenue is forecast to reach $14.67 billion, up about 670% year over year. Carnival posted revenue of $1.91 billion in fiscal 2021.

Carnival is expected to post EPS of $1.43 in its 2023 fiscal year and $2.17 in fiscal 2024. The stock’s 52-week range is $8.70 to $28.69. The company does not pay a dividend. Total shareholder return for the past year is a negative 66.6%.

FedEx

After reporting quarterly earnings last September, FedEx Corp. (NYSE: FDX) shares plummeted to a 52-week low. Just ahead of its fiscal third-quarter earnings report in March, the stock set another 52-week low. Things are looking up now, though: since posting its current 52-week low in early May, FedEx stock has added 17%.

Most of that gain came after new CEO Raj Subramaniam promised to raise the company’s dividend and slash capital spending. Music to investors’ ears, amplified by an agreement to permit an activist investor to name two board members. FedEx reports quarterly results after markets close Thursday and holds its annual shareholders’ meeting next week.

Analysts remain staunchly bullish on the shares, with 21 of 30 brokerages covering the stock having a rating of Buy or Strong Buy. The other nine rate the stock at Hold. At a share price of around $230.50, the upside potential based on a median price target of $291.00 is 26.2%. At the high price target of $339.00, the upside potential is 47.1%.


The consensus fourth-quarter revenue estimate is $24.5 billion, up 3.6% sequentially and 8.4% higher year over year. Adjusted EPS are forecast at $6.87, up 49.7% sequentially and 37.1% year over year. For the full 2022 fiscal year ended in May, analysts are currently expecting EPS of $20.65, up 13.7%, on sales of $93.51 billion, up 11.3%.

FedEx stock trades at 11.2 times expected 2022 EPS, 10.3 times estimated 2023 earnings of $22.45 and 9.3 times estimated 2024 earnings of $24.71 per share. The stock’s 52-week range is $192.82 to $304.59. FedEx pays an annual dividend of $3.00 (yield of 2.0%). Total shareholder return for the past year was a negative 20.4%.

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