Over the past 12 months, shares of ConocoPhillips (NYSE: COP) have added 4.4% to their value. That gain includes a share price drop of about 22% over the past 6 months. About 83% of Conoco’s float is held by institutional investors, and while returns for oil exploration and production companies have declined sharply, the companies still provide solid returns.
The outlook is not much brighter, either. Since April 12, crude prices have dropped by about $10 a barrel, a decline of more than 10%. One thing to keep an eye on is the federal government’s plan to replenish the Strategic Petroleum Reserve if crude prices fall below about $72 a barrel. Crude traded at around $73.60 Tuesday morning.
There are 28 brokerages covering the company, and 19 have Buy or Strong Buy ratings. Eight rate the stock at Hold. At a recent price of around $99.30 a share, the upside potential based on a median price target of $132.50 is about 33.4%. At the high price target of $167.00, the upside potential is about 68.2%.
For the first quarter of 2023, analysts expect revenue of $16.06 billion, which would be down 16.6% sequentially and by 16.7% year over year. Adjusted EPS are expected to come in at $2.07, down 23.7% sequentially and 36.7% lower year over year. For the full fiscal year, Conoco is expected to report EPS of $9.84, down 27.2%, on sales of $67.52 billion, down 17.8%.
Conoco stock trades at 10.1 times expected 2023 EPS, 9.2 times estimated 2024 earnings of $10.78 and 10.6 times estimated 2025 earnings of $9.37 per share. Its 52-week trading range is $78.30 to $138.49. The company pays an annual dividend of $2.32 (yield of 2.25%). Total shareholder return for the past 12 months was 9.36%.
Retail power generation company Constellation Energy Corp. (NASDAQ: CEG) has seen its share price increase by more than 30% over the past 12 months, including a decline of more than 19% in the past six months. Since its spin-off from Exelon in January 2022, shares are up about 85% but down from a November peak of nearly $98 a share. Constellation generates about 90% of its electricity from carbon-free fuels (nuclear, solar, wind and hydro) and supplies about 10% of all U.S. carbon-free generation.
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