The GLP-1 drug market has surged dramatically in the past four years, driven by soaring demand for weight-loss treatments that also tackle related conditions like diabetes and heart disease. Valued at over $100 billion today, the sector is projected to exceed $150 billion by 2030 as more patients seek effective therapies.
Viking Therapeutics (NASDAQ:VKTX) is carving out a strong position with its dual GLP-1/GIP agonist VK2735, which showed up to 15% weight loss in Phase 2 trials and has now advanced to Phase 3 studies under the VANQUISH program, initiated in June. This includes evaluations in obese adults and those with type 2 diabetes, as well as a maintenance dosing trial that started last month.
Additionally, Viking’s VK2809 for non-alcoholic steatohepatitis (NASH) delivered impressive Phase 2b data, with up to 75% of patients achieving disease resolution without fibrosis worsening. Updates posted last week confirmed 44% of treated patients saw both NASH resolution and fibrosis improvement.
With these milestones, could Viking be the next acquisition target for a big pharmaceutical player hungry for obesity assets?
Big Pharma’s Obesity Scramble Intensifies
However, Novo Nordisk (NYSE:NVO) just escalated the competition by outbidding Pfizer (NYSE:PFE) with an unsolicited $9 billion offer for Metsera (NASDAQ:MTSR), a clinical-stage biotech focused on next-generation obesity treatments. The bid includes about $6.5 billion in upfront cash plus up to $2.5 billion in milestones, valuing Metsera at up to $77.75 per share — a 133% premium over prior levels.
This move came just weeks after Pfizer announced a $7.3 billion agreement to acquire the company, highlighting the fierce race to dominate the booming obesity market.
Metsera is developing a portfolio of injectable and oral therapies targeting GLP-1 and related pathways to address weight loss and metabolic diseases. Its lead candidate, MET-097i, is an ultra-long-acting GLP-1 receptor agonist (RA) that showed promising Phase 2b results in September, with patients losing up to 14.1% of body weight after 28 weekly doses. The drug aims for less frequent dosing — potentially monthly — while maintaining efficacy comparable to leading options like Novo’s Wegovy or Eli Lilly‘s (NYSE:LLY | LLY Price Prediction) Zepbound.
Another asset, a fully biased GLP-1 RA, is designed for even longer action and could become a first-in-class NuSH analog peptide. Early Phase 1 data from September indicated five-week weight loss rivaling top GLP-1 drugs, with good tolerability.
Why are giants like Novo and Pfizer so eager? The obesity drug space is exploding, with adherence data showing long-term market share gains for those who secure advanced assets early. Overpaying now beats being sidelined later, as the market compounds through real-world evidence and broader indications.
Novo, already dominant with Ozempic and Wegovy, wants to bolster its pipeline against rivals, while Pfizer seeks a foothold after lagging in this area. Acquiring Metsera gives them late-stage candidates to accelerate toward approval and capture a slice of the $150 billion-plus opportunity.
Viking’s Stronger Stance in the Race
Compared to Metsera, Viking appears better positioned with a more advanced and diversified pipeline. VK2735’s subcutaneous version is already in Phase 3, a step ahead of Metsera’s Phase 2 assets, potentially shortening the path to market.
Phase 2 data for VK2735 demonstrated rapid weight loss — up to 15% in just 13 weeks — outpacing Metsera’s 14.1% over 28 weeks in some metrics. Viking’s oral formulation of VK2735 also posted solid Phase 2 results in August, with up to 12% weight loss, offering convenience that could boost patient adherence.
Beyond obesity, Viking’s VK2809 adds value as a thyroid receptor-beta agonist targeting NASH, a condition often comorbid with obesity. The 52-week VOYAGE study data showed robust histologic improvements, including 63% to 75% NASH resolution rates and significant fibrosis reduction in many patients — two shots on goal, whereas Metsera focuses mainly on one core area.
Viking’s market cap hovers around $4.3 billion, far below Metsera’s $9 billion bid valuation, suggesting undervaluation given its progress. With cash reserves from recent financings and no major debt, Viking has a runway to advance independently, but its dual assets make it an attractive buyout play.
Key Takeaway
A buyout for Viking seems increasingly likely amid this M&A frenzy, as big pharma scrambles for differentiated obesity therapies. Analysts speculate a premium of 60% to 100% over current prices, potentially valuing Viking at $7 billion to $9 billion or more, based on Metsera comps.
Even without an offer, Viking can thrive as a standalone company: Phase 3 readouts for VK2735 expected to begin next year and could drive approvals by 2027 or the year after, while VK2809’s NASH potential taps another multibillion-dollar market. Strong data and a clean safety profile position it for partnerships or organic growth, fueling significant stock upside regardless of which way it goes.
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