Stock Market Live March 3, 2026: S&P 500 (SPY) Down Big on Iran War Fears

By Ian Cooper Updated Mar 3, 12:46PM EST · Published Mar 3, 9:29AM EST

Quick Read

S&P 500 futures dropped 1.62% as oil surged $5 on Iranian conflict and Strait of Hormuz closure threats.
Iran reportedly closed the Strait of Hormuz, which transports 13 million barrels of oil daily.
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This is Why Target is Up $6.50 Today

Mar 3, 2026 at 12:46 PM EST

Shares of Target are up about 6% on the day. All after the company said it’s on track to end its sales slump after another poor quarter.

In fact, Target CEO Michael Fiddelke said the company is “out of the gates strong this year,” as noted by CNBC. Also, while he noted that one month of growth “does not make a trend,” he said the February sales increase gives him “confidence” that the company is moving back to growth.

When the VIX Begins to Drop, Consider this ETF

Mar 3, 2026 at 12:40 PM EST

Eventually, the U.S.-Iran fiasco will cool off.

And when it does, we’ll be offered an interesting opportunity on the short side of volatility. Right now, even though tensions are sky-high, the VIX is telling us that fear is too hot.

In fact, if you look at the VIX dating back to early 2022, you can see that with every spike, RSI, MACD, and Williams’ %R tell us when the VIX is likely to pivot lower. We saw that happen in April 2025, December 2024, August 2024, April 2024, October 2023, March 2023, October 2022, September 2022, and also in May 2022. Each time the VIX peaked with those three indicators, buying calls on the DIAs, QQQs, and the SPY typically paid off well.

One of the best ways to trade an overheated fear gauge is by jumping into inverse VIX ETFs, which move higher when the VIX moves lower.

That includes the ProShares Short VIX Short-Term Futures ETF (SVXY), which seeks daily investment results, before fees and expenses, that correspond to one-half the inverse (-0.5x) of the daily performance of the S&P 500 VIX Short-Term Futures Index, as noted by ProShares.com. It also has an expense ratio of 0.95%.

Palantir is a Beneficiary of the Conflict

Mar 3, 2026 at 9:27 AM EST

Analysts at Rosenblatt just reiterated a buy rating on PLTR, saying it’s a beneficiary of the Middle East conflict.

“War Regrettably Underscores the Value of PalantirOver Just Another LLM–Raising Price Target From $150 to $200 Against Our 2027 Street High Estimates,” they noted, as reported by CNBC.

PLTR upside is being driven by the company’s role in defense and artificial intelligence, particularly following increased geopolitical tensions between the U.S. and Iran. Plus, investors are just starting to rotate into defense stocks like Palantir.

It’s ugly out there today.

S&P 500 futures are down 1.62%, or by 111 points. The SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY) is down 1.64%, or by $11.23. The Dow is down 1.5%, or by 786 points. The Nasdaq is down 2.15%, or by 537 points. Meanwhile, oil is up $5 on ongoing Iranian war fears and potential threats to the Strait of Hormuz. The Volatility Index is up by $5.53 at 25.40.

Bitcoin is down 2.61%, or by $1,794, as gold slips by $150 to $5,148. Again, all thanks to uncertainty with Iranian war fears and potential threats to the Strait of Hormuz.

Unfortunately, there are signs the conflict is deepening.

Drones hit the U.S. embassy in Riyadh. The State Department ordered evacuations at facilities in Bahrain, Iraq, and Jordan. Hezbollah attacked Tel Aviv. And there are concerns about how long Gulf states can keep themselves safe from Iranian attacks. Plus, President Trump just said the conflict could continue for another four weeks, which raises uncertainty, which markets hate.

But hey, maybe we’ll get lucky again, and markets will recover like they did yesterday, on the idea of a quick war, with little impact on the economy.

However, “After initially taking the Middle East war in stride on Monday, market anxiety ratcheted higher overnight amid concerns that a decapitated and leaderless Iranian government and military will execute a prolonged retaliatory response aimed at sowing chaos throughout the region by targeting key economic and energy infrastructure for weeks to come,” said Adam Crisafulli of Vital Knowledge, as quoted by CNBC.

“While the US and Israeli militaries have complete dominance in the region, they can’t knock out every cheap missile and drone fired off by Iran, especially since interceptor stockpiles are rapidly depleting,” he added.

Plus, oil could gush to $100.

If the Strait of Hormuz is closed for an extended period, oil could rise to $100.

Right now, reportedly, the Strait of Hormuz is closed, and Iran will fire on any ship trying to pass, Iranian media reported, as noted by Reuters.

Remember, the Strait is a critical transit route for global oil, with about 13 million barrels of oil per day moving through that region. By disrupting that flow, we risk $100 oil.

If Iran were to close the Strait, the situation could worsen significantly. In fact, “This could present a scenario three times the severity of the Arab oil embargo and Iranian revolution in the 1970s, and drive oil prices into the triple digits, while LNG prices retest the record highs of 2022,” added Saul Kavonic, head of energy research at MST Marquee, as quoted by CNBC.

At this point, everything is a wait-and-see.