Prediction markets now put the odds of Caesars Entertainment (NASDAQ: CZR) being acquired before 2027 at 61.5%, with billionaire restaurateur and ambassador Tilman Fertitta widely cited as the most likely buyer. The stock has surged 49.53% over the past month on deal speculation. But if a deal happens, the question isn’t just what Caesars shareholders get. It’s who else wins. We looked at four stocks to find out.
4 Stocks in the Crosshairs of a Potential Caesars Deal
Caesars Entertainment: The Target
Caesars operates more than 50 casino and hotel properties under brands including Caesars, Harrah’s, and Horseshoe. Despite $11.49 billion in full-year 2025 revenue, the company carries $11.9 billion in aggregate debt and posted a net loss of $502 million for the full year. Its stock sat near $19.70 at the time of its Q4 earnings filing, well below its 52-week high of $31.58. The depressed valuation and heavy debt load have drawn acquisition speculation. A Fertitta acquisition could bring fresh capital and operational focus, particularly to a Las Vegas segment that has seen four consecutive quarters of revenue decline. The bright spot is Caesars Digital, which set a quarterly adjusted EBITDA record of $85 million in Q4 2025, up from $20 million in the prior year period.
VICI Properties: The Landlord With the Most at Stake
VICI Properties (NYSE:VICI) owns the real estate underneath many of Caesars’ most valuable properties, including Caesars Palace. Caesars represents 39% of VICI’s annualized contractual rent, making it the REIT’s single largest tenant. Any new owner must honor existing leases, and a well-capitalized Fertitta organization could be a stronger, more reliable tenant than the current heavily indebted Caesars. VICI also holds put/call rights on several Las Vegas Strip Caesars properties, including the Flamingo, Horseshoe, Paris, Planet Hollywood, and LINQ, giving it optionality if a new owner pursues sale-leaseback transactions. The real estate investment trust generated full-year revenue of roughly $4 billion and raised its dividend for the eighth consecutive year, currently paying $0.45 per quarter. Analysts carry a consensus target of $31.28 against a current price near $28.41.
CEO Edward Pitoniak noted:
We are proud to have announced several new partnerships in 2025 that we believe position the company well for sustained future growth…. Each of these partnerships represent important additions to VICI’s roster of partners. As we have consistently emphasized, our company has been built on developing strategic partnerships, and the relationships forged in 2025 are emblematic of this enduring strategic ethos.
MGM Resorts: The Competitor That Benefits From Distraction
MGM Resorts International (NYSE: MGM) is Caesars’ most direct competitor on the Las Vegas Strip and in regional markets. A Caesars absorbed in integration is a Caesars less focused on competing. MGM posted $17.54 billion in full-year 2025 revenue and delivered 20% Consolidated Adjusted EBITDA growth in Q4 despite Las Vegas headwinds. Its digital arm, BetMGM, swung to operating income of $29.3 million from a loss of $42.3 million in the prior year and distributed $135 million to the parent. MGM China grew 21% in Q4, adding geographic diversification Caesars lacks. CEO Bill Hornbuckle said: “MGM Resorts once again saw the benefit of a diversified operational strategy, delivering Consolidated Adjusted EBITDA growth of 20% in the fourth quarter despite headwinds in Las Vegas.” MGM has also repurchased shares aggressively, with shares outstanding down roughly 48% since 2021.
Gaming and Leisure Properties: Diversified Exposure
Gaming and Leisure Properties (NASDAQ: GLPI) holds Caesars-leased properties, generating $22.5 million from its Caesars Master Lease in Q4 2025. But Caesars is a smaller slice of its portfolio compared to VICI. Its largest tenant is PENN Entertainment, and its roster spans Boyd, Bally’s, Cordish, and tribal relationships. That diversification means Gaming and Leisure Properties has less direct upside from a Caesars ownership change, but also less concentration risk. It posted a record $1.12 billion in full-year AFFO and carries a committed pipeline of approximately $2.6 billion at a blended cap rate over 8%. CEO Peter Carlino described the pipeline as a driver of “accelerating growth in 2026.”
Who Actually Benefits Most
Analysts have pointed to VICI as having the most direct structural exposure to a potential ownership change. It owns the land and buildings under Caesars’ crown jewel properties, collects rent regardless of who operates them, and holds call rights that could become valuable if a new owner pursues asset monetization. A more financially stable tenant would reduce VICI’s counterparty risk. MGM benefits more indirectly but meaningfully: a distracted competitor cedes ground in Las Vegas and online gaming at exactly the moment BetMGM is turning profitable. Gaming and Leisure Properties benefits at the margins through broader gaming M&A momentum and its diversified growth pipeline. Caesars shareholders stand to gain if a deal closes at a premium.
The Bottom Line
A Fertitta acquisition of Caesars would reshape the competitive landscape across gaming operators and REITs. VICI’s structural position as landlord with embedded call rights gives it the most direct exposure to a potential ownership change. MGM’s operational momentum has it positioned to capture ground in Las Vegas and online gaming during any competitor transition. The deal’s probability of 61.5% on Polymarket reflects significant market attention on how a potential ownership change could affect the broader gaming sector.
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