How high could oil prices go? That’s the question on the minds of many investors as the conflict in Iran enters its next phase. With President Trump threatening “demolition” if a deal can’t be met, oil has caught another bid higher, with prices now hovering just north of $115 per barrel. While things could take a turn for the worse, markets seem to be settling down after a rough entry into the second quarter of 2026.
While it’s impossible to know what happens next for oil, investors should be prepared for the possibility of a further spike. The volatility has been off the charts, and it could stay that way for another month, especially as deadlines come and go without much in the way of progress.
A one in five chance that oil hits $150 or more? That’s a serious risk
Turning to Polymarket, there’s actually a pretty high chance that oil goes above $150 per barrel for the month of April. As the odds stand today, the odds of oil at or north of $150 is 20%, with a 3% chance of oil hitting $200 or higher. That’s high, alarmingly high, and could entail even bigger price hikes at the local gas station. Of course, a lot needs to go wrong for oil to get to that $200 high.
The Strait of Hormuz might need to stay closed for a few more months, trapping much of the world’s oil supply. Add other geopolitical unknowns into the equation, and perhaps a non-zero chance of $200 oil is worth hedging against if you’ve yet to do so.
Just because $150-200 oil can happen, though, doesn’t mean you should back up the truck on shares of junior oil companies, especially since they’re already coming in hot. At the same time, $150-200 oil is bound to hurt just about any business out there while weighing down consumers and perhaps paving the way for stagnation, inflation, and, yes, maybe even stagflation.
Either way, the Polymarket odds pin oil at or below $60 as just as likely (3%) as oil at or above $200. Though only time will tell where oil heads next, I do think that being prepared for the high-impact, low-probability events is worthwhile. In this piece, we’ll check in on two stocks that I view as well-equipped to do well, even if oil has yet to see its peak in this global energy crisis.
Occidental Petroleum
Remember Occidental Petroleum (NYSE:OXY | OXY Price Prediction): the oil company that Warren Buffett’s Berkshire Hathaway (NYSE:BRK-B) had been loading up on in recent years? It’s been a questionable buy on the dip, but that probably confused many investors, at least up until the stock blasted off nearly 50% year to date.
Suddenly, Buffett and Berkshire look like geniuses for buying the name into weakness as shares steadily dipped off their 2022 peak. After the 2026 spike, the big question is where the Berkshire oil favorite goes from here.
I think much higher, especially following the wave of analyst upgrades on the name. Did the upgrades come quite late? Perhaps. They were definitely late compared to Berkshire, but I do think there’s still upside in a name that’s acted as the ultimate hedge against a global energy crisis. With increased oil price sensitivity and impressive operating economics, Occidental is perhaps the absolute best stock to play a run in oil to $150-200.
Even if oil stays range-bound, but in the triple-digits, Occidental stands out as a winner. With enviable margins and a wave of free cash flow that could hit with oil as high as it is, I certainly wouldn’t bet against generous dividend hikes moving into 2027. Either way, it’s good to be in the company of Buffett and Berkshire. And even if you’re paying a heftier price, I still find the name to be fairly priced, given the risks that are now very apparent in today’s market.
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