Qualcomm Just Ripped 70% in a Month. Is It Time to Sell in May and Go Away?

Shares of Qualcomm (NASDAQ:QCOM | QCOM Price Prediction) are heading higher Friday, trading at around $215 intraday and up roughly 6% on the session. The move caps a parabolic stretch that has put QCOM stock up 70% over the past month.

That kind of vertical move on a $200 billion-plus mega-cap is rare. It’s also forcing investors to ask the obvious question: is it time to ring the register?

The rally is being driven by a clean fundamental story rooted in real catalysts. Yet the speed of the move is what’s creating the dilemma for holders sitting on a large gain in just a few weeks.

Data Center Pivot Fuels the Repricing

The biggest catalyst Friday came from Daiwa, which upgraded Qualcomm stock to Outperform from Neutral and lifted its price target to $225 from $140. That note follows last week’s Q2 FY2026 earnings report, where Qualcomm posted non-GAAP EPS of $2.65 on revenue of $10.6 billion, both ahead of consensus. CEO Cristiano Amon confirmed that a “leading hyperscaler custom silicon engagement is on track for initial shipments later this calendar year.”

Add in Qualcomm’s record automotive revenue of $1.326 billion (up 38% year over year), and the bull case writes itself. Qualcomm stock is being repriced from a handset cyclical to a multi-vector AI infrastructure name.

The Case for Taking Profits

The bear pushback is straightforward. A 70% one-month gain is historically anomalous and often precedes a meaningful pullback, especially when the underlying business still leans on a softening handset segment. Qualcomm’s Q2 handset revenue fell 13% year over year, and Q3 FY2026 guidance of $9.2 billion to $10 billion implies a sequential decline.

Insiders have also been selling into strength. CFO Akash Palkhiwala disposed of 5,000 Qualcomm shares across seven transactions in March and April, and the Chief Accounting Officer sold 192 shares at $172 on April 30. Sentiment on Reddit has flipped too, with scores collapsing from very bullish readings of 80 to 82 in early May to bearish prints of 22 to 35 this week.

The competition is real, as well. Qualcomm’s data center push runs straight into NVIDIA (NASDAQ:NVDA), Advanced Micro Devices (NASDAQ:AMD), Intel (NASDAQ:INTC), and hyperscaler custom silicon programs. The opportunity is large, but the runway to revenue is not immediate.

The Case for Holding

On the other hand, the Daiwa upgrade suggests the sell-side is only beginning to model the data center optionality. The analyst consensus target still sits near $168.50, well below where QCOM stock trades, which means estimate revisions could continue to chase the price higher.

Qualcomm’s combined automotive and IoT businesses grew 20% year over year in Q2, partially offsetting handset weakness. Management is also repurchasing stock aggressively, with $5.4 billion already retired in the first half of fiscal 2026.

What to Watch

The next binary catalyst is the June 24 Investor Day, where Amon is expected to detail the Data Center and Physical AI roadmap. A credible long-term revenue framework could extend the rally. However, a vague update from Qualcomm could invite the kind of profit-taking that often follows parabolic runs.

For Qualcomm stock investors who rode the move, trimming a piece into strength is a defensible discipline rather than a call on the thesis. Parabolic charts cut both ways, and the burden of proof now sits with Qualcomm’s management to justify the new multiple at the June event.