Strategy’s STRC Funding Loop ‘Gives Me the Shivers,’ Says Analyst Worried About Saylor’s Shrinking Window

Crypto analyst Ran Neuner recently joined The Wolf Of All Streets podcast with host Scott Melker to discuss a part of Strategy (NASDAQ:MSTR | MSTR Price Prediction) that many retail investors still do not fully understand.

The conversation focused on STRC, the company’s preferred-stock funding vehicle that helps finance Michael Saylor’s ongoing Bitcoin purchases. Neuner’s conclusion was uneasy. The shrinking amount of time STRC spends trading near its $100 target price, he said, “gives me the shivers.”

At the center of the debate is a simple question. If STRC stops functioning smoothly, does Saylor’s Bitcoin buying machine begin slowing down, too?

STRC Works Only if It Stays Near $100

STRC, formally known as the Variable Rate Perpetual Stretch Preferred Stock, launched in July 2025 and raised roughly $2.5 billion in what became Strategy’s largest IPO ever. The total stated amount has since grown to roughly $3.4 billion.

The structure is designed to trade near $100 per share through a variable monthly dividend rate tied to the stock’s VWAP. When STRC stays near par value, Strategy can continuously issue more shares into the market, raise capital, buy more Bitcoin, and increase what management calls Bitcoin Per Share. To maintain that peg, the dividend rate has steadily climbed. STRC started at 9.0% in mid-2025 before gradually rising through 10%, 10.5%, 11%, and now roughly 11.5%, according to Neuner.

What worried him was how little time STRC recently spent at the critical $100 level. In February and March, STRC reportedly traded near par around the 25th of the prior month, giving Saylor multiple weeks to issue stock and raise capital. In May, Neuner said the window narrowed dramatically. “In May, the thing only got to 100 on the 11th of May, which gave him 4 days until the stock went ex-div to raise money,” he said.

His concern is that if the market stops supporting STRC near par, Strategy’s ability to raise fresh capital could weaken. “Eventually the market’s going to start discounting the fact that Saylor’s not in the market anymore,” Neuner warned. STRC closed at $99.30 on May 22, 2026. Neuner floated $70 as a downside scenario if confidence in the peg begins to break down.

Scott Melker Thinks Saylor Is Still Supporting Bitcoin

Melker pushed back against the bearish interpretation. He argued Saylor remains one of the strongest structural buyers in the Bitcoin market and suggested the system likely holds together unless a major black swan event occurs. “Saylor is definitely holding up the price of Bitcoin,” Melker said during the discussion.

Strategy currently holds approximately 850,000 BTC, representing more than 5% of effective Bitcoin supply excluding lost coins. The company disclosed holdings of 713,502 BTC as of its Q4 2025 filing, including 41,002 BTC purchased during January 2026 alone. The company also still has significant financing capacity available. Strategy disclosed a $2.25 billion USD Reserve intended to cover multiple years of preferred dividends and debt interest payments. The company also reported $8.1 billion remaining under its common-stock ATM program alongside more than $29 billion across preferred ATM programs.

Prediction markets currently assign only about a 4.5% probability of a margin call occurring in 2026. Even so, MSTR has been under pressure. The stock is down 59.97% over the past year, with Bitcoin itself trading around $77,148 on May 25, 2026, off 29.26% year-over-year.

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The Real Risk Is the Funding Mechanism

Even with that support structure, Strategy stock has struggled. MSTR is down nearly 60% over the past year, while Bitcoin itself recently traded near $77,148, down roughly 29% year over year.

Neuner closed the discussion by zooming out. Referencing another analyst’s view, he floated the possibility that the broader AI-driven asset bubble may continue inflating until 2033, potentially allowing Bitcoin and risk assets to keep climbing despite periodic corrections.