If you collect benefits from Social Security, the cost-of-living adjustment (COLA) is one of the most important numbers you’ll hear each year.
COLAs are designed to help ensure that benefits can keep up with inflation. Without them, seniors who get most or all of their income from Social Security would risk eventually plunging into poverty.
Social Security COLAs weren’t always automatic. They became a permanent feature of Social Security in 1975, when Congress changed the program to tie annual benefit increases to inflation rather than requiring lawmakers to vote on raises each year.
The goal was simple — to protect seniors from losing ground as the cost of everyday essentials like food, housing, and healthcare increased.
Social Security COLAs are based on the Consumer Price Index for Urban Wage Earners and Clerical Workers (CPI-W). Each year, the Social Security Administration compares CPI-W data from the third quarter of the year to determine whether benefits are due for an increase. And right now, that inflation measure is sending mixed signals for seniors.
A 4.4% inflation reading pushes COLA expectations higher
The CPI-W reading came in at 4.4% in May, and that number has already started to ripple through Social Security forecasts.
After that report, the nonpartisan Senior Citizens League raised its projection for the 2027 COLA to 3.8%, up from lower earlier estimates. If that 3.8% projection turns out to be accurate, Social Security recipients could see one of their largest increases in recent years.
The Senior Citizens League says the average monthly benefit could rise by $77 in 2027 if its latest estimate comes to be. That could give the typical senior almost $1,000 more in spending power.
The news isn’t all good
On the surface, a larger Social Security COLA might sound like a win. And to some degree, it could be.
But there’s a catch.
Higher inflation readings don’t just impact future Social Security COLAs. They also impact seniors’ costs in the near term.
The fact that the CPI-W rose 4.4% in May means that Social Security recipients could already be paying a lot more for food, gas, and other everyday expenses. And while elevated inflation could lead to a larger raise in the new year, it could render 2026’s 2.8% COLA a lot less effective.
Remember, for Social Security benefits to actually increase 3.8% in 2027, inflation will need to remain at its current elevated level through the summer months. But that could burden retirees on Social Security with high costs they aren’t equipped to handle.
Next year’s COLA could disappoint either way
No matter what 2026’s COLA ends up being officially, the reality is that those raises don’t always help seniors on Social Security maintain their buying power. That’s because the COLA formula doesn’t tend to match retirees’ real-life spending patterns.
There’s a timing issue, too. COLAs are backward-looking. They’re based on previous inflation readings, not current ones. That can create a mismatch situation like the one seniors are stuck in today.
The fact that experts are now anticipating a larger Social Security boost in the new year may seem like positive news at first. But in reality, there’s a major problem with that scenario, and it’s one you may feel in the coming months if prices remain elevated.
If you’re struggling to cover your bills on Social Security, it could pay to go back to work in some capacity to drum up extra income. Even a few hours of gig work per week could give you more breathing room and make it easier to keep up with rising costs if your current Social Security checks are falling behind.
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