SpaceX (NASDAQ:SPCX | SPCX Price Prediction) shares are trading less like a newly public industrial company and more like a squeeze gathering force. The stock closed Wednesday at $146.15, jumping 9.75% for the session and 34.99% since August 5. With its market capitalization already at $1.9 trillion, any forced covering would unfold on a scale the market has rarely witnessed.
Short Interest Collapses From 34% to 11%
The setup was textbook. Short interest built aggressively into the company’s first earnings report, which coincided with a 911 million share unlock. According to S3 Partners, 95% of SpaceX stock available to borrow was out on loan late last week, and short interest peaked near 34%.
Then the tide turned. S3 data now shows short interest has collapsed to 11% as the newly unlocked float absorbed some borrowing pressure and shorts covered into strength. Retail noticed. The top wallstreetbets thread of the week asked, “How did SPCX maintain its share price today despite adding 900,000,000 more shares?”, drawing 1,379 upvotes. Composite social sentiment sits at 82, firmly bullish.
Earnings, Grok 4.6, and the 10 Gigawatt AI Story
The fundamentals gave shorts nothing to lean on. SpaceX’s Q2 revenue hit $7.81 billion, up 92% year over year, adjusted EBITDA jumped 191%, and the AI segment grew 247% to $2.56 billion. Cash on hand: roughly $100 billion, with a $47.5 billion backlog.
On Wednesday, SpaceX released Grok 4.6, which Musk touted as the top model in AI. Revenue estimates for the xAI franchise have been climbing, and Anthropic is already paying to rent roughly 300 megawatts of Colossus capacity. Our earlier coverage of SemiAnalysis research found that SpaceX could realistically reach 10 gigawatts of compute by year-end 2027. Following the Colossus II buildout, current capacity stands at 1.4 gigawatts.
What Happens at the Next Unlock
Prediction markets on SpaceX stock imply 61.27% upside to the $235.69 consensus target, backed by 27 Buy ratings. Put/call ratio sits at a modest 0.72, though September 25 expirations spike to 1.53, hinting at hedging around the next float event.
The bear case is simple: additional lockup expirations will keep adding supply, and Q2 capex of $18.37 billion shows how quickly the Starship and AI compute buildout burns cash. But with borrow tight, sentiment bullish, and a pending $60 billion acquisition of AI coder Cursor on the calendar, the next unlock may find a very different order book waiting for it.
Contact [email protected] for any questions or corrections.
Top Gaining Stocks
Top Losing Stocks