Anthropic’s $1.5 Trillion IPO Could Expose the Biggest Risk Facing the AI Boom
One stock has already lost nearly half its value in a month, and the Anthropic mega-deal could decide what happens next. The real danger sits on a balance sheet running on borrowed money, while a quieter supplier collects the profits.
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CoreWeave (NASDAQ:CRWV) faces a financing test right now. Anthropic is reportedly seeking $80 billion to $100 billion at a valuation around $1.5 trillion, down from earlier talk of approximately $2 trillion. The deal has become a test of whether the AI buildout can keep paying for itself. CoreWeave is the most direct way to own that question, and the market has already started to answer it. Shares closed at $46.40 on November 6, down 47.54% in one month and 56.61% over the past year.
A Balance Sheet Running on Borrowed Money
At the end of Q2 2026, CoreWeave carried $72.05 billion in total liabilities against just $5.02 billion of shareholders’ equity. Debt-to-equity was 8.94 and net debt to EBITDA was 10.75. Interest coverage stood at -0.037, so operating income does not cover interest. Q2 interest expense reached $640 million. That was up from $267 million a year earlier, and management guided Q3 interest to $860 million to $940 million. The stock still trades at 6.38 times book value, with a return on equity of -79.89%. After the selloff, the valuation remains high relative to its negative returns.
Cash Burn That Needs Open Credit Markets
Q2 free cash flow was -$5.743 billion. CoreWeave filled the gap with $10.071 billion of financing cash in the quarter. Full-year 2026 capex guidance is $35 billion to $39 billion. Anthropic’s own commitments add to that pressure. Its filings show about $895.4 billion in future computing and infrastructure obligations, including $69.8 billion due over the next 12 months. The same filings warn that higher financing costs or tighter credit could delay contracted capacity. Reuters reported on November 5 that some investors wondered whether the roadshow could stay on schedule. The 10-year Treasury yield is 4.84%, which ranks in the 83.9 percentile of the past year. If the Anthropic deal stumbles, credit gets tighter for every AI infrastructure borrower, and CoreWeave can’t fund its expansion without that credit.
Concentrated Customers, a Single Supplier and a Lawsuit
Optimists highlight a $104 billion backlog. A few names make up much of it, including one $21 billion commitment signed in March 2026 and roughly $22.4 billion in OpenAI commitments. NVIDIA (NASDAQ:NVDA | NVDA Price Prediction) supplies CoreWeave’s GPUs and is also a $2 billion equity investor. CoreWeave also faces a securities fraud class action saying it hid data center construction delays. Revenue grew 112.3% in Q2, yet the company still posted a GAAP net loss of $626 million.
Why NVIDIA Profits From the Same Buildout
For AI infrastructure exposure, NVIDIA earns revenue from this expansion without taking on CoreWeave’s debt. In fiscal Q2 2027, NVIDIA produced $21.341 billion of free cash flow and $59.688 billion of net income. Its debt-to-equity ratio is 0.07 and interest coverage is 503. It returned about $26.0 billion to shareholders in the quarter, and Anthropic runs on its hardware.
At 38 times earnings NVIDIA is expensive, but real profits and cash flow back that multiple. The chip supplier is only one piece of this trade. We profiled seven more AI infrastructure names, from power to cooling, in a free report you can grab here.
Key milestones for CoreWeave are positive free cash flow and interest covered by operating income, but until then, it is a direct proxy for AI credit conditions and carries high financing risk.
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After two decades of patrolling the dark corners of suburbia as a police officer, Rich Duprey hung up his badge and gun to begin writing full time about stocks and investing. For the past 20 years, he’s been cruising the markets looking for companies to lock up as long-term holdings in a portfolio while writing extensively on the broad sectors of consumer goods, technology, and industrials. Because his experience isn’t from the typical financial analyst track, Rich is able to break down complex topics into understandable and useful action points for the average investor. His writings have appeared on The Motley Fool, InvestorPlace, Yahoo! Finance, Money Morning, and, of course, 24/7 Wall St. He has been featured in both U.S. and international publications, including MarketWatch, Financial Times, Forbes, Fast Company, and USA Today.
