XRP Surges 16% This Week, Reclaims $1.55 After $157 Million Theft—Can It Sustain This Level Until Quarter-End?

XRP (CRYPTO:XRP) bounced back to $1.55 just one day after the biggest theft at Bitget, where $157 million worth of XRP was taken. Over the past week, XRP has risen 16%.

Normally, exchange hacks tend to drive down the price of stolen assets, making this quick recovery to $1.55 unusual. The key reason for this resilience is that the stolen XRP has not yet entered the market.

On September 24, 2026, Bitget reported that hackers stole about $351.6 million from its hot and warm wallets, which are the internet-connected wallets an exchange uses for day-to-day withdrawals. Lookonchain, a blockchain monitoring service, tracked the theft and reported that 102.93 million XRP, valued at about $157 million, was part of the haul—about 44% of the total funds stolen.

As XRP trades at $1.55, it remains about 16% lower this year than its $1.84 start. The pressing question is whether XRP can maintain this level through the quarter-end on September 30, especially with a significant amount of stolen supply still looming over the market.

The Stolen 103 Million XRP Cannot Be Frozen, and Most of It Has Not Moved

The attacker split the stolen XRP into five wallets: four with roughly 20 million XRP each and one with about 23 million. So far, only about 400,000 XRP (around $620,000) has been moved from one of those wallets, while the other four remain untouched.

Traders often refer to this as an “overhang,” indicating a known supply of coins that could eventually be sold and pressure prices downward once those coins hit the market.

Additionally, the XRP Ledger has a freeze tool that can halt the transfers of certain tokens, like stablecoins. However, this does not apply to XRP itself, meaning neither Ripple nor Bitget can freeze the stolen coins. Bitget has said its protection fund, which holds 5,500 Bitcoin, is sufficient to cover the loss, removing any need for the exchange to sell XRP to reimburse customers.

Typically, thieves with a large stash of stolen cryptocurrency will break it down into smaller chunks and trade it in a way that minimizes immediate impact on prices. This pattern can stretch out the pressure over weeks. The small transfer appears to be an early test, and subsequent moves will determine how severely XRP feels the weight of this overhang.

Spot XRP ETFs Start Buying Again with $38 Million in Two Days

In a silver lining for the market, spot XRP exchange-traded funds (ETFs)—which hold XRP on behalf of investors—have resumed buying, bringing in around $38 million over just two days (September 23 and 24), and totaling about $80 million for the month with a week left. These purchases have been crucial in offsetting the supply, as each new share issued by these funds requires them to buy XRP to back it.

The rally sparked by this institutional buying gained momentum after hitting a low of $1.25 on September 16, reaching $1.66 by September 23. After the hack news broke, it dipped to $1.45 on September 24 but quickly rebounded to $1.55 by September 25.

The Overhang Is Larger Than the Month’s Fund Buying, but It Only Weighs When It Moves

When weighing the two opposing forces, the stolen XRP represents a significantly larger supply than what the funds have purchased this month. The attacker holds approximately $157 million worth of XRP, while the funds have collectively acquired about $80 million. If a large amount of stolen XRP flooded the market quickly, it could overwhelm weeks of ETF demand.

However, while the fund buying has already occurred, the stolen XRP has not yet been sold. If the stolen coins are released gradually, consistent fund demand could absorb the selling pressure.

Conversely, a sudden infusion of 20 million XRP into the market could create momentum that the current demand cannot match. The amount of stolen XRP is fixed, making the pace of its movement the key variable affecting price.

Can XRP Maintain Its Hold Above $1.55 Through Quarter-End?

We believe XRP has a better-than-even chance of staying above $1.55 by September 30, provided the four wallets containing the bulk of the stolen XRP remain inactive. The hacker has held most of the stolen coins since the theft, and the resurgence of fund buying in the last week of the quarter provides strong support.

Even if the price declines slightly, the third quarter still offers a much stronger close than the second quarter’s $1.04. However, if any dormant wallets start transferring XRP to exchanges before the quarter closes, it could significantly affect market perception.

Investors should watch these five wallets closely. XRP needs to hold above $1.50, which was its closing price on September 23, about 3% lower. A surge beyond the September 23 high of $1.66, roughly 7% above, could lead to a run at the August 22 high of $1.70. If the attacker begins to sell, we could see a drop to the September 24 low of $1.45 and potentially even down to the September 16 low of $1.25.

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