Binance Just Reopened HYPE Withdrawals and Hyperliquid Is Down 12% in a Week. Can HYPE Hold $75?

Binance reopened withdrawals for Hyperliquid (CRYPTO: HYPE), ending a freeze that began after thieves took more than $6 billion from the exchange on October 29. The news hasn’t given the HYPE price a bounce. HYPE trades at $77 as of November 8 after a 12.2% drop over the past seven days, the worst weekly showing of any top-15 coin.

Hyperliquid is a decentralized exchange built mostly around perpetual futures, which are contracts that track a coin’s price with no expiry date. Its HYPE token ranks 11th by market value and trades 21.6% below its all-time high of $98, set on September 23. HYPE is also down 8.8% over the past 30 days.

The weekly drop has nearly erased HYPE’s gains since October 25, when it closed at $76, its lowest close in the past 30 days. Even so, HYPE is still up more than 200% year to date. Now that Binance customers can move their coins again, can HYPE hold above $75, just 2.3% below where it trades?

Binance Freeing HYPE Could Add Fresh Selling Pressure

The hack doesn’t explain the drop. HYPE posted its highest close of the past 30 days, about $90, on October 30, a day after the theft. The weekly slide started from $88 on November 1, the same day Binance began restoring withdrawals for its first batch of 15 networks and assets, including Bitcoin (CRYPTO: BTC), Ethereum (CRYPTO: ETH) and Solana (CRYPTO: SOL).

HYPE stayed locked during that first phase. Under a withdrawal freeze, customers could still trade HYPE on Binance but couldn’t move it to a personal wallet or onto Hyperliquid’s blockchain. Binance said on November 6 that it was working to restore HYPE withdrawals, and HYPE and Aptos (CRYPTO: APT) came back on November 8, with more assets returning in phases.

The released coins could push the price either way. Holders who move HYPE off Binance to stake it on Hyperliquid or keep it in their own wallets shrink the supply available to sell. However, holders can also move their coins to sell on other exchanges, and that extra supply could weigh on HYPE near $75.

ETF Outflows Are Pulling Against Hyperliquid’s Buyback

ETF investors were pulling money out at the same time. U.S. Hyperliquid ETFs saw net outflows of $8 million on November 6. The Bitwise Hyperliquid ETF (NYSEARCA: BHYP) lost $7.1 million, and the 21Shares Hyperliquid Staking ETF (NASDAQ: THYP) lost $0.9 million. An outflow means investors pulled out more cash than they put in, so the funds need less HYPE to back their shares.

Hyperliquid’s daily token buyback pushes the other way and has supported HYPE all year. The exchange sends trading fees to its Assistance Fund, which buys HYPE on the open market. That buying is paid for with fees the exchange has already earned, so it keeps coming as long as traders keep trading.

Traders kept using the exchange while the token fell. Hyperliquid Perps, the exchange’s futures market, earned $2.8 million in fees over 24 hours, the third-highest of any protocol, according to DefiLlama data for November 7. Those fees fund the buyback, so the Assistance Fund keeps buying HYPE even as other holders sell.

HYPE Broke Below Its Short-Term Averages and Fell Far Harder Than Bitcoin

HYPE trades below its 20-day simple moving average (SMA) of $81 and its 50-day SMA of $85. An SMA averages closing prices over a set number of days, and a coin trading under its short averages usually means sellers control the recent trend. However, HYPE remains 11.4% above its 200-day SMA of $68, so the longer uptrend holds.

Sellers have eased off for now, with HYPE down just 0.7% over 24 hours. Still, the token hasn’t recovered either short-term average, so the slower selling looks like a pause rather than a recovery.

The majors fell over the same seven days, but by far less. Bitcoin dropped 2.9% to $75,662, and Ethereum slipped 1.6% to $2,226. Solana fell 6.1% to $89, but HYPE’s 12.2% drop was still the steepest in the group.

HYPE fell harder because it ran much further before the market cooled. Bitcoin is down 13.6% year to date, and Ethereum is down 25%, so HYPE holders carry far bigger paper gains and more reason to take profit. HYPE also faced pressures the majors didn’t, with its Binance withdrawals frozen a week longer and money leaving the HYPE ETFs.

Can HYPE Hold Above $75 Now That Binance Coins Can Move?

HYPE could hold above $75 if the newly released Binance coins mostly head into personal wallets and staking. The token trades 2.3% above that level and is close to its October 25 low close of $76, where buyers stepped in before. However, a rebound still depends on Binance customers choosing to stake rather than sell, ETF investors returning after the November 6 outflows, and a buyback that can only absorb so much supply at once.

Sellers could take control if the released coins hit sell orders. A daily close below $75 could signal that Binance supply is reaching the market, and HYPE could then test $70, 8.8% below its price, with the 200-day SMA of $68 as the last line of the longer uptrend. A close back above the 20-day SMA of $81 would suggest the buyback is absorbing the released coins and the sell-off has run its course.

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