The ADP national employment report for June is often considered a prelude to the tone of the following day’s real unemployment report from the Labor Department. The ADP report for June is out at -473,000. This is down from -485,000 as revised in May. This is also worse than the estimates being les than -400,000 on an unofficial basis.
This number is computed from a subset of ADP records that represent close to 400,000 business clients million U.S. employees working in all private industrial sectors.
The breakdown showed that small and mid-sized businesses were the largest job cut contributors with -177,000 and -205,000 respectively. Large businesses accounted for about 91,000 of the cuts.
With this number being worse than unofficial estimates, it is hard to expect any solid changes to tomorrows unemployment data from the Labor Department. Bloomberg has those estimates at 9.6% unemployment and -350,000 on the change in non-farm payrolls.
Jon C. Ogg
July 1, 2009
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