S&P 500
7,588.60
+0.51%
Dow Jones
52,758.90
+0.47%
Nasdaq 100
29,885.70
+0.46%
Russell 2000
2,982.51
-0.27%
FTSE 100
10,543.60
+0.61%
Nikkei 225
69,317.20
+0.42%

Jobs

TrimTabs Mutes Unemployment Hopes

Photo of Jon C. Ogg
By Jon C. Ogg Updated Published
This post may contain links from our sponsors and affiliates, and Flywheel Publishing may receive compensation for actions taken through them.

Invalid Image
The employment report for May is due on Friday from the Labor Department, and the first views of the tally may be a weak.  TrimTabs has data out this morning projecting that only 124,000 jobs were added in the month of May.

As of Tuesday the target expected by Bloomberg was that 150,000 jobs were added to the nonfarm payrolls.  One estimate was as low as 95,000 and one estimate was as a high as 206,000.  Bloomberg also projected that the private payrolls were likely up by 164,000.  TrimTabs is now muting those expectations.

This report from TrimTabs precedes the ADP report and Challenger data which are also meant to predict or telegraph the payroll creations each month.

What the TrimTabs report does not indicate is the overall labor force participation rate, although that rate cannot generally have any massive change on a month to month basis.  This figure has been diving and sits at a three decade low with the most recent report showing only 63.6% versus about 67% at the peak.  With a consensus estimate of 8.1% for the official unemployment rate and with so many able-bodied workers no longer being counted in the workforce, the U.S. is still probably years away from full employment.

JON C. OGG

Contact [email protected] for any questions or corrections.

DISCLOSURE:
INVESTMENTS ARE NOT FDIC INSURED • ARE NOT BANK GUARANTEED • MAY LOSE VALUE Brokerage and Active investing products offered through SoFi Securities LLC, member FINRA(www.finra.org)/SIPC(www.sipc.org). Advisory services are offered by SoFi Wealth LLC, an SEC-registered investment adviser. Information about SoFi Wealth’s advisory operations, services, and fees is set forth in SoFi Wealth’s current Form ADV Part 2 (Brochure), a copy of which is available upon request and at www.adviserinfo.sec.gov. Probability of Member receiving $1,000 is a probability of 0.026%; If you don’t make a selection in 30 days, you’ll no longer qualify for the promo. Customer must fund their account with a minimum of $50.00 to qualify. Other fees, such as exchange fees, may apply. Please view our fee disclosure to view a full listing of fees. Investing in alternative investments and/or strategies may not be suitable for all investors and involves unique risks, including the risk of loss. An investor should consider their individual circumstances and any investment information, such as a prospectus, prior to investing. Interval Funds are illiquid instruments, the ability to trade on your timeline may be restricted. Brokerage and Active investing products offered through SoFi Securities LLC, Member FINRA(www.finra.org) /SIPC(www.sipc.org). There are limitations with fractional shares to consider before investing. During market hours fractional share orders are transmitted immediately in the order received. There may be system delays from receipt of your order until execution and market conditions may adversely impact execution prices. Outside of market hours orders are received on a not held basis and will be aggregated for each security then executed in the morning trade window of the next business day at market open. Share will be delivered at an average price received for executing the securities through a single batched order. Fractional shares may not be transferred to another firm. Fractional shares will be sold when a transfer or closure request is initiated. Please consider that selling securities is a taxable event. Options involve risks, including substantial risk of loss and the possibility an investor may lose the entire investment Before trading options please review the Characteristics and Risks of Standardized Options  Investing in an Initial Public Offering (IPO) involves substantial risk, including the risk of loss. Further, there are a variety of risk factors to consider when investing in an IPO, including but not limited to, unproven management, significant debt, and lack of operating history. For a comprehensive discussion of these risks please refer to SoFi Securities’ IPO Risk Disclosure Statement This should not be considered a recommendation to participate in IPOs and investors should carefully read the offering prospectus to determine whether an offering is consistent with their investment objectives, risk tolerance, and financial situation. New offerings generally have high demand and there are a limited number of shares available for distribution to participants. Many customers may not be allocated shares and share allocations may be significantly smaller than the shares requested in the customer’s initial offer (Indication of Interest). For more information on the allocation process please visit IPO Allocation.
Follow 24/7 Wall St. on Google
Photo of Jon C. Ogg
About the Author Jon C. Ogg →

Jon Ogg has been a financial news analyst since 1997. Mr. Ogg set up one of the first audio squawk box services for traders called TTN, which he sold in 2003. He has previously worked as a licensed broker to some of the top U.S. and E.U. financial institutions, managed capital, and has raised private capital at the seed and venture stage. He has lived in Copenhagen, Denmark, as well as New York and Chicago, and he now lives in Houston, Texas. Jon received a Bachelor of Business Administration in finance at University of Houston in 1992. www.247wallst.com.

Continue Reading

Jon C. Ogg |

TrimTabs and Gallup Signal Strong Jobs Growth in August

TrimTabs has given its first look at the employment situation and payrolls for the month of August.

TrimTabs Payrolls Less Positive Than ADP Ahead of BLS Payrolls
Jon C. Ogg |

TrimTabs Payrolls Less Positive Than ADP Ahead of BLS Payrolls

When the September payrolls reading from the Labor Department was so weak, it was TrimTabs that proved more accurate.

Jon C. Ogg |

Unemployment at Post-Recession Low, With Dismal Participation Rate

The U.S. Department of Labor has released the highly awaited unemployment and payrolls report for the month of June.

TrimTabs Less Optimistic Than ADP on Payrolls Gains
Jon C. Ogg |

TrimTabs Less Optimistic Than ADP on Payrolls Gains

Investors have been using the ADP Payrolls report the TrimTabs employment growth report as a preliminary tool to judge and…

Chris Lange |

Will Labor Department Payrolls and Unemployment Report Meet Expectations?

On Friday morning, the U.S. Department of Labor will release its Employment Situation report for the month of October.

Jon C. Ogg |

What to Expect From Labor Department on Unemployment and Payrolls

This Thursday will mark a very unusual event in economic reporting. Since this week holds the first Friday of the…

Jon C. Ogg |

ADP and TrimTabs Foreshadow Poor April Payrolls and Unemployment for Friday

ThinkstockWe already warned ahead of the number that the first-quarter gross domestic product would come in well under estimates. Now…

Jon C. Ogg |

A Mixed Yet Positive Bias Ahead of Labor Department Payrolls and Unemployment

Investors are getting a very mixed bag, albeit a positive mix, for previewing this Friday's unemployment and payrolls report from…

Chris Lange |

Total Blowout on Labor Department Payrolls Report

Employers across the United States increased hiring in November and kept the economy on track, ultimately recording the strongest year…

Top Gaining Stocks

Meta
META • Vol: 40,760,422
CarMax
KMX • Vol: 2,288,021
Weyerhaeuser
WY • Vol: 6,523,553
SBA Communications
SBAC • Vol: 1,443,801
NVIDIA
NVDA • Vol: 148,249,982

Top Losing Stocks

Moderna
MRNA • Vol: 9,176,778
Coterra Energy
CTRA • Vol: 73,319,495
CrowdStrike
CRWD • Vol: 9,269,567
Datadog
DDOG • Vol: 5,135,556
EPAM Systems
EPAM • Vol: 1,164,561