The reason behind the most recent move is more on speculation and sentiment than it is on raw news. The concern that Howard Stern is going to jump ship seems to be abating after a weekend poll from TheStreet.com and even comments from Ellen DeGeneres saying Stern joining American Idol is just not likely. But there is also the notion that we have discussed before… After looking at the data and evaluating the risks. it looks as though SIRIUS XM can likely survive if Stern leaves and is likely to survive the Pandora product launch in the coming weeks.
CEO Mel Karmazin has recently noted in an interview at FORA.tv that he would like to keep Howard Stern and he is optimistic that SIRIUS will be able to do so. But he also noted that many others are likely to go after Howard Stern….. We also noted the rumors last week that Howard Stern’s departure may be more noise and fiction than reality.
SIRIUS put in a new 52-week high yesterday when it went above $0.98, and today the stock is at yet another 52-week with shares up 7.4% at $1.03. We have also seen more than a full day’s volume trade in just the first hour. If SIRIUS can manage to keep its stock up here above the buck for another month and change, then it will not have to effect that reverse split to stay inside of NASDAQ compliance for the $1.00 rule.
JON C. OGG
FEBRUARY 17, 2010
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