Do Airbus Missteps Offer Relief for Boeing?

At the meeting’s outset on Wednesday, the company’s chief financial officer suggested that Airbus could contemplate shutting down its A380 program after 2018. The A380 is the company’s answer to Boeing Co.’s (NYSE: BA) 747 family. But it took Airbus too many years (about 25) and too many dollars (about $25 billion) to get the jumbo jet to market. Now, the market for these planes has all but disappeared.

Boeing has a total of just 39 orders for both the passenger and freighter variations of its 747-8. Through Tuesday, the company has taken no new orders for the aircraft in 2014. Airbus has 171 A390s still undelivered as of the end of November. It, too, has taken no new orders for the plane in 2014.

In April 2013, Boeing has cut its production rate on the 747 from two per month to 1.75 per month. In October of that year, the company cut the rate to 1.5 planes per year, and earlier this week it cut the rate to 1.3 planes per year beginning late next year. Boeing has delivered 16 747s so far in 2014.

Airbus has delivered 25 A380s so far this year and plans to build about 30 a year. But with no new orders flowing in, the future of the plane is in doubt.

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There is some pressure on Airbus to revamp the A380 with new engines and other improvements to make the plane more economical to operate. Already the plane, which Airbus designed to hold 550 seats, is seeing some customers stuff in 600 seats in order to make the economics work. The company says it is considering an overhaul to the A380 and is expected to make a decision next year. Right now, it is difficult to find anyone who thinks a revamped A380 will get the go ahead.

With virtually no interest in either the passenger or freighter version of the 747, Boeing may choose to let the plane simply fade away. Airbus, though, is still actively trying to sell the A380 as the answer to serving airports that will become increasingly crowded (Heathrow, Narita) in the near future and will need large planes to meet the demand. It has been a tough sell, with only Emirates Airlines, which owns 56 of the double-decked jumbos in its fleet, appearing to be really buying the story.

Boeing is unlikely to sell any more 747s as a result of Airbus’s comments on the A380 program. Even though Boeing hasn’t given up on the jumbo jet, especially in the freighter version, it will not disappoint any customers if it lets the program wind down. That is not true for Airbus, and the company could find itself pinned down by promises it made to customers it wants to keep.

Boeing stock closed down about 1% on Thursday at $123.37, one of just a couple of Dow stocks to close in the red. The stock’s 52-week range is $116.32 to $144.57.

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