How We Calculate Our Stock Price Predictions
A plain-language guide to the model behind our 12-month price targets
Every 24/7 Wall St. price prediction starts with a simple question: where could this stock realistically be in 12 months? To answer it, we begin with a baseline growth estimate for the company and then apply our proprietary 24/7 Factor, a set of adjustments that raise or lower that baseline based on what analysts expect, how the company is growing, how the broader sector is trending, and more. The result is a single target price, shown alongside an optimistic and a conservative scenario so you can see the realistic range of outcomes, not just one number.
The Process, Step by Step
Start with a baseline
Our 24/7 Prediction Model begins with the clearest signals a company provides: its previously reported financials and most recent earnings. We use the company’s growth in revenue and profitability to set a baseline for where the stock could realistically trade over the next 12 months — before any other factors are applied.
Apply the 24/7 Factor
Next, we apply eight adjustments that nudge the baseline up or down. Each exists because no single signal captures a stock alone, so we combine independent factors: professional analysis, the company’s profit trajectory, the sector backdrop, risk and positioning, and retail attention. Each is described in full below.
Show the ranges
Stocks rarely move in a straight line, so we don’t rely on a single number. Alongside our central 12-month target, we publish an optimistic and a conservative scenario. We measure each stock against our past targets, widening or narrowing its bands over time as the data warrants.
Reading the Three Scenarios
Optimistic
Where the stock could go if conditions break favorably: strong earnings, supportive markets, positive sentiment. This isn’t a ceiling a stock can’t pass, but the upper end of the range our model considers realistic today.
Target Price
Our central 12-month estimate: the single number our model considers most likely given everything we know today. It sits between the optimistic and conservative scenarios, and it’s the figure we’d point to first.
Conservative
Where the stock could land if headwinds win out: weaker results, a tougher market, or fading momentum. Like the optimistic case, it’s not a floor; it’s the lower end of the range we see as realistic.
We calibrate these bands against outcomes. We aim for most stocks to finish within their optimistic-to-conservative range, and we widen or narrow the bands over time when the historical hit rate drifts from that target.
The Factors Inside the 24/7 Factor
After establishing a baseline, our 24/7 Prediction Model applies a series of adjustments that were each selected by Eric Bleeker, CFA. Each factor can either increase or decrease a stock’s target, and the size of each adjustment will change over time as we evaluate which ones contribute more meaningfully to share price movement. On any stock’s prediction page, you can toggle these on and off to see how each one moves the company’s target.
Base Growth
A 12-month growth rate built from the company's recent trajectory and fundamentals, before any other adjustments are applied. Because equities have historically drifted upward over time, this factor is often positive, though not always. The other seven factors then decide whether that starting point holds.
Sector Momentum
We measure recent momentum across industries (e.g. information technology, energy, healthcare) and apply an adjustment for where each is trending. A stock in a sector with strong tailwinds is nudged higher; one facing sector-wide headwinds is nudged lower.
Analyst Consensus
Thousands of full-time Wall Street analysts track stocks, and their research often focuses on catalysts and future risks not accounted for in past results. We factor in the balance of Buy, Hold, and Sell ratings and how published price targets compare to today's price.
Earnings Growth
The rate of change in a company's profitability is one of the strongest signals of how it will perform ahead. Accelerating earnings push this factor up; deteriorating or slowing earnings pull it down.
Volatility Adjustment
A risk check. Highly volatile stocks carry more forecasting uncertainty, so we temper their targets to avoid over-extrapolating from a wide, choppy trading range. Lower-volatility stocks, whose ranges are steadier and have historically delivered stronger risk-adjusted returns, receive a modest positive adjustment.
Price Position
Where a stock trades relative to our sense of fair value and its recent range. A name near the top of its range has less room to run and is treated more cautiously, while one closer to the bottom is given more upside.
Social Sentiment
Communities of retail investors increasingly drive trading activity. We monitor retail mood from public discussion (in places like Reddit and X), measuring both the level of interest a stock draws and whether it skews positive or negative. It's a lighter-weight signal, capturing attention rather than fundamentals, so it moves the target only modestly.
Editorial Adjustments
A factor that is only sometimes present. Our team can apply a manual adjustment for context a model can miss: a pending catalyst, a known risk, or an unusual one-off event.
Where the Data Comes From
The factors above are only as good as the data feeding them. We draw on several independent sources:
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Wall Street analyst ratings & targets. Aggregated Buy / Hold / Sell ratings and published 12-month price targets from professional analysts who cover the stock.
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Company fundamentals & earnings. Reported results and forward earnings expectations that shape the base growth rate and earnings-growth factor.
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Market & volatility data. Recent price history, trading range, and volatility used to gauge risk and position the stock within its range.
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Social & retail sentiment. Public investor discussion (for example, Reddit) summarized into sentiment and activity scores.
About the 24/7 Prediction Model
The 24/7 Prediction Model was built and is overseen by Eric Bleeker, CFA, Chief Investment Officer at 24/7 Wall St. Eric has more than 20 years of experience in equities, including 15 years at The Motley Fool, where he directed Technology & Telecom coverage and research. He currently hosts The AI Investor Podcast, where he maintains a portfolio that has dramatically outperformed market indexes.
Eric selected the eight factors inside the 24/7 Factor and sets how heavily each one weighs on a stock’s target. The weights were selected based upon factors Eric uses when researching and identifying stock recommendations on 24/7 Wall St.
Austin Grandt is the developer of the 24/7 Prediction Model. Austin has developed multiple finance tools and models across his 10+ years of work in fintech. He previously founded Financial Toolbelt, a suite of personal finance tools, which was acquired by The Motley Fool.
Austin and Eric work together to refine the weights over time as new data shows which signals move share prices most, so the model reflects an active, accountable process rather than a fixed formula.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is a price prediction the same as financial advice?
How often are the predictions updated?
What do the optimistic and conservative scenarios mean?
How accurate are stock price predictions?
Our price predictions are data-driven estimates published for informational and educational purposes. They are not investment advice or a recommendation to buy or sell any security. Separately, Eric Bleeker issues stock recommendations elsewhere (for example, the AI Investor Podcast); because the model is broad, those may differ from its outputs and may cover stocks it does not weight most highly.
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