Retail

Has Yum Finally Turned Its Earnings Around?

Yum! Brands Inc. (NYSE: YUM) reported its first-quarter results Tuesday after the markets closed as $0.80 in earnings per share (EPS) on $2.6 billion in revenue. This compares to Thomson Reuters consensus estimates of $0.72 in EPS on $2.64 billion in revenue. The same quarter from the previous year had $0.87 in EPS on $2.72 billion in revenue.

What may be adding some relief here is that Yum maintained its full-year guidance of at least 10% in EPS growth in 2015. The problems of China, and KFC to a lesser extent, seem to be partially offset by the new push of Taco Bell. Investors have reacted positively, so maybe some of the woes of China are slowing to an acceptable level.

Through April 20, year to date, Yum has repurchased 2.6 million shares, totaling $200 million at an average price of $76.

In terms of the company’s segments, it reported revenues versus the same quarter in the previous year. 24/7 Wall St. used the consolidated numbers from the operating results to smooth out all the currency and one-time items that often confuse the reports. These were seen as follows, without the exceptional commentary provided by Yum on each unit, and they include the company sales figures and the franchise/license fees and income (with additional commentary added from the bullets):

  • China division had total revenues of $1.26 billion, down 9%. System sales declined 6%, as 8% unit growth was offset by a 12% same-store sales decline.
  • KFC division had total revenues of $642 million, down 3%. System sales increased 8%, driven by 2% unit growth and 5% same-store sales growth.
  • Pizza Hut division had total revenues of $271 million, up 1%. System sales increased 2%, driven by 2% unit growth. Same-store sales were even.
  • Taco Bell division had total revenues of $431 million, up 10%. System sales increased 9%, driven by 3% unit growth and 6% same-store sales growth.

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Again, those unit revenues may look different due to the inclusion of franchise and license fees. After all, there are many moving parts to Yum, and not all of those parts boil down solely to company-owned store sales. The market has been very negative on its woes in China, and the 12% same-store sales drop just is not as bad as some were calling for.

Greg Creed, CEO of Yum Brands, was very optimistic on the China division despite revenues being down 9% from the first quarter of 2014:

Our confidence in China is bolstered by improving sales and upward momentum in customer perceptions. China Division restaurant margins were a healthy 19% even though same-store sales declined 12%, reinforcing our belief in significant operating leverage as sales recover. We remain on track to open at least 700 new restaurants in China this year with strong returns, laying the groundwork for future growth.

The CEO also commented on the international expansion:

Importantly, we’re on pace to set a new record in international development this year, opening 2,100 new restaurants and extending our lead in emerging markets. We expect overall operating results will enable us to achieve targeted earnings growth this year, despite strengthening headwinds from foreign currency translation.

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So far for the first quarter, total international development was 294 new restaurants, and 88% of this development occurred in emerging markets.

Shares closed Tuesday down 0.3% at $80.85. Following the release of the earnings report, shares were up 4.7% at $84.83 in after-hours trading. The stock has a consensus analyst price target of $81.68 and a 52-week trading range of $65.81 to $83.58.

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