The end of the NFL’s Week 9 means the season is halfway over, and teams are starting to jockey for playoff spots in earnest. Teams are running out of time to rack up wins and put themselves in position to make the playoffs.
Several top teams are starting to pull away from the rest of their division, while others are muddling through injuries and tough competition in their division for a shot at the Super Bowl. After nine weeks, there are six teams with a 95% or better chance of making the playoffs, and just four with a 10% or better chance of winning the Super Bowl.
To determine how each NFL team will finish the 2021 season, 24/7 Tempo reviews each week FiveThirtyEight’s 2021 NFL Predictions, which are based on 50,000 simulated games and are updated after every game. The predictions are as of Nov. 9, 2021, and teams are ranked by their projected chance of winning the Super Bowl. Supplemental data came from Pro Football Reference.
Week 9 was all about backup quarterbacks and surprising upsets. The Arizona Cardinals regained the NFL’s best record at 8-1 when backup QB Colt McCoy ably stepped in for the injured Kyler Murray to beat the San Francisco 49ers 31-17. On the other hand, Green Bay Packers QB Jordan Love struggled in his first start, replacing Aaron Rodgers who was out with COVID-19. Green Bay could only muster a late touchdown and lost to the Kansas City Chiefs 13-7.
A few Super Bowl contenders were taken down a peg by some surprising opponents. The Buffalo Bills fell to 5-3 after losing a messy 9-6 game to the Jacksonville Jaguars, who picked up just their second win of the season. The Dallas Cowboys fell to 6-2 after being dominated at home by the Denver Broncos 30-16.
The marquee matchup of the week saw the Tennessee Titans win in Los Angeles over the Rams 28-16. Both teams are now 7-2. The Rams will hope the newly-acquired Von Miller can help bolster their defense and get after the opposing quarterback, adding to his already impressive sack total. These are the NFL’s all-time sack leaders.
Click here to see each NFL team’s chance of winning the Super Bowl.
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32. Detroit Lions
> Projected record: 2-15
> Pct. chance to make playoffs: <0.1%
> Pct. chance to win Super Bowl: <0.1%
> 2020 record: 5-11
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Source: Bob Levey / Getty Images Sport via Getty Images
31. Houston Texans
> Projected record: 3-14
> Pct. chance to make playoffs: <0.1%
> Pct. chance to win Super Bowl: <0.1%
> 2020 record: 4-12
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Source: Sarah Stier / Getty Images Sport via Getty Images
30. New York Jets
> Projected record: 5-12
> Pct. chance to make playoffs: 0.6%
> Pct. chance to win Super Bowl: <0.1%
> 2020 record: 2-14
Source: Alex Pantling / Getty Images Sport via Getty Images
29. Jacksonville Jaguars
> Projected record: 5-12
> Pct. chance to make playoffs: 0.4%
> Pct. chance to win Super Bowl: <0.1%
> 2020 record: 1-15
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Source: Michael Reaves / Getty Images Sport via Getty Images
28. Miami Dolphins
> Projected record: 6-11
> Pct. chance to make playoffs: 1%
> Pct. chance to win Super Bowl: <0.1%
> 2020 record: 10-6
Source: Emilee Chinn / Getty Images Sport via Getty Images
27. Chicago Bears
> Projected record: 6-11
> Pct. chance to make playoffs: 5%
> Pct. chance to win Super Bowl: <0.1%
> 2020 record: 8-8
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Source: Tim Warner / Getty Images Sport via Getty Images
26. Carolina Panthers
> Projected record: 6-11
> Pct. chance to make playoffs: 7%
> Pct. chance to win Super Bowl: <0.1%
> 2020 record: 5-11
Source: Tim Nwachukwu / Getty Images Sport via Getty Images
25. New York Giants
> Projected record: 6-11
> Pct. chance to make playoffs: 9%
> Pct. chance to win Super Bowl: <0.1%
> 2020 record: 6-10
Source: Rob Carr / Getty Images Sport via Getty Images
24. Washington Football Team
> Projected record: 6-11
> Pct. chance to make playoffs: 7%
> Pct. chance to win Super Bowl: 0.1%
> 2020 record: 7-9
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Source: Kevin C. Cox / Getty Images Sport via Getty Images
23. Philadelphia Eagles
> Projected record: 7-10
> Pct. chance to make playoffs: 18%
> Pct. chance to win Super Bowl: 0.1%
> 2020 record: 4-11
Source: Michael Reaves / Getty Images Sport via Getty Images
22. Atlanta Falcons
> Projected record: 8-9
> Pct. chance to make playoffs: 25%
> Pct. chance to win Super Bowl: 0.2%
> 2020 record: 4-12
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Source: Gregory Shamus / Getty Images Sport via Getty Images
21. San Francisco 49ers
> Projected record: 7-10
> Pct. chance to make playoffs: 21%
> Pct. chance to win Super Bowl: 0.3%
> 2020 record: 6-10
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20. Minnesota Vikings
> Projected record: 7-10
> Pct. chance to make playoffs: 27%
> Pct. chance to win Super Bowl: 0.4%
> 2020 record: 7-9
Source: Joe Sargent / Getty Images Sport via Getty Images
19. Cincinnati Bengals
> Projected record: 9-8
> Pct. chance to make playoffs: 32%
> Pct. chance to win Super Bowl: 0.6%
> 2020 record: 4-11
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Source: Justin Casterline / Getty Images Sport via Getty Images
18. Seattle Seahawks
> Projected record: 8-9
> Pct. chance to make playoffs: 30%
> Pct. chance to win Super Bowl: 0.7%
> 2020 record: 12-4
Source: Julio Aguilar / Getty Images Sport via Getty Images
17. Denver Broncos
> Projected record: 9-8
> Pct. chance to make playoffs: 39%
> Pct. chance to win Super Bowl: 0.9%
> 2020 record: 5-11
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Source: Ethan Miller / Getty Images Sport via Getty Images
16. Las Vegas Raiders
> Projected record: 9-8
> Pct. chance to make playoffs: 43%
> Pct. chance to win Super Bowl: 1%
> 2020 record: 8-8
Source: Justin Casterline / Getty Images Sport via Getty Images
15. Indianapolis Colts
> Projected record: 8-9
> Pct. chance to make playoffs: 37%
> Pct. chance to win Super Bowl: 1%
> 2020 record: 11-5
Source: Chris Graythen / Getty Images Sport via Getty Images
14. New Orleans Saints
> Projected record: 9-8
> Pct. chance to make playoffs: 65%
> Pct. chance to win Super Bowl: 1%
> 2020 record: 12-4
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Source: Justin K. Aller / Getty Images Sport via Getty Images
13. Pittsburgh Steelers
> Projected record: 9-8
> Pct. chance to make playoffs: 39%
> Pct. chance to win Super Bowl: 1%
> 2020 record: 12-4
Source: Adam Glanzman / Getty Images Sport via Getty Images
12. New England Patriots
> Projected record: 9-8
> Pct. chance to make playoffs: 53%
> Pct. chance to win Super Bowl: 2%
> 2020 record: 7-9
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Source: Nic Antaya / Getty Images Sport via Getty Images
11. Cleveland Browns
> Projected record: 9-8
> Pct. chance to make playoffs: 50%
> Pct. chance to win Super Bowl: 2%
> 2020 record: 11-5
Source: Jamie Squire / Getty Images Sport via Getty Images
10. Kansas City Chiefs
> Projected record: 10-7
> Pct. chance to make playoffs: 56%
> Pct. chance to win Super Bowl: 3%
> 2020 record: 14-2
Source: Katelyn Mulcahy / Getty Images Sport via Getty Images
9. Los Angeles Chargers
> Projected record: 11-6
> Pct. chance to make playoffs: 77%
> Pct. chance to win Super Bowl: 5%
> 2020 record: 7-9
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Source: Tom Pennington / Getty Images Sport via Getty Images
8. Dallas Cowboys
> Projected record: 12-5
> Pct. chance to make playoffs: 95%
> Pct. chance to win Super Bowl: 6%
> 2020 record: 6-10
Source: Harry How / Getty Images Sport via Getty Images
7. Los Angeles Rams
> Projected record: 12-5
> Pct. chance to make playoffs: 95%
> Pct. chance to win Super Bowl: 7%
> 2020 record: 10-6
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Source: Andy Lyons / Getty Images Sport via Getty Images
6. Baltimore Ravens
> Projected record: 11-6
> Pct. chance to make playoffs: 84%
> Pct. chance to win Super Bowl: 8%
> 2020 record: 11-5
Source: Timothy T Ludwig / Getty Images Sport via Getty Images
5. Buffalo Bills
> Projected record: 11-6
> Pct. chance to make playoffs: 89%
> Pct. chance to win Super Bowl: 8%
> 2020 record: 13-3
Source: Stacy Revere / Getty Images Sport via Getty Images
4. Green Bay Packers
> Projected record: 12-5
> Pct. chance to make playoffs: 98%
> Pct. chance to win Super Bowl: 10%
> 2020 record: 13-3
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Source: Wesley Hitt / Getty Images Sport via Getty Images
3. Tennessee Titans
> Projected record: 13-4
> Pct. chance to make playoffs: >99%
> Pct. chance to win Super Bowl: 13%
> 2020 record: 11-5
Source: Dylan Buell / Getty Images Sport via Getty Images
2. Tampa Bay Buccaneers
> Projected record: 13-4
> Pct. chance to make playoffs: 98%
> Pct. chance to win Super Bowl: 14%
> 2020 record: 11-5
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Source: Ronald Martinez / Getty Images Sport via Getty Images
1. Arizona Cardinals
> Projected record: 14-3
> Pct. chance to make playoffs: >99%
> Pct. chance to win Super Bowl: 15%
> 2020 record: 8-8
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