Special Report

24 Senate Seats Least Likely to Flip this Year

The midterm elections are only about a month away, and across the country, political campaigns are in full swing. A handful of key, closely contested races will determine which party controls Congress for the next two years and could meaningfully alter the balance of power in Washington. Still, the majority of races – particularly for the U.S. Senate – are decidedly lopsided. 

There are a total of 34 senate seats up for grabs this November, and in 28 of them, an incumbent senator is running for reelection. Historically, incumbent senators have held a significant advantage in election years, benefitting from greater name recognition, a larger fundraising network, and often, challengers who lack a similar level of qualifications. 

Going back to 1964, over 80% of incumbent senators have won their reelection bid, and this year will likely be no different. (Here is a look at America’s most popular senators.) 

Reviewing a range of polling and fundraising data, 24/7 Wall St. identified the U.S. senators who are most likely to keep their job this year. Each incumbent senator on this list is up for reelection in November and has at least an 80% chance of winning, according to poll analysis from data analytics company FiveThirtyEight. The projections model aggregates poll results and weights them based on pollster quality and sample size. Senators are ranked by their odds of winning.

The candidates on this list have raised anywhere from $3.5 million to over $50 million to fund their reelection campaigns. And in the majority of cases, this fundraising accounts for over 90% of the total fundraising for the entire race, including money raised by other rivals. 

This list is made up of 11 Democrats and 13 Republicans. The majority of these candidates – 15 out of 24 – have been in office for over a decade, including some who were first sworn in in the 1980s and ‘90s. (Here is a look at the senators who became more popular in the last year.)

Click here to see 24 Senate seats least likely to flip this year.

Click here to see our detailed methodology.

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