Special Report

24 Senate Seats Least Likely to Flip this Year

usdagov / Flickr

The midterm elections are only about a month away, and across the country, political campaigns are in full swing. A handful of key, closely contested races will determine which party controls Congress for the next two years and could meaningfully alter the balance of power in Washington. Still, the majority of races – particularly for the U.S. Senate – are decidedly lopsided. 

There are a total of 34 senate seats up for grabs this November, and in 28 of them, an incumbent senator is running for reelection. Historically, incumbent senators have held a significant advantage in election years, benefitting from greater name recognition, a larger fundraising network, and often, challengers who lack a similar level of qualifications. 

Going back to 1964, over 80% of incumbent senators have won their reelection bid, and this year will likely be no different. (Here is a look at America’s most popular senators.) 

Reviewing a range of polling and fundraising data, 24/7 Wall St. identified the U.S. senators who are most likely to keep their job this year. Each incumbent senator on this list is up for reelection in November and has at least an 80% chance of winning, according to poll analysis from data analytics company FiveThirtyEight. The projections model aggregates poll results and weights them based on pollster quality and sample size. Senators are ranked by their odds of winning.

The candidates on this list have raised anywhere from $3.5 million to over $50 million to fund their reelection campaigns. And in the majority of cases, this fundraising accounts for over 90% of the total fundraising for the entire race, including money raised by other rivals. 

This list is made up of 11 Democrats and 13 Republicans. The majority of these candidates – 15 out of 24 – have been in office for over a decade, including some who were first sworn in in the 1980s and ‘90s. (Here is a look at the senators who became more popular in the last year.)

Click here to see 24 Senate seats least likely to flip this year.

Click here to see our detailed methodology.

Source: Pool / Getty Images News via Getty Images

24. Sen. Mark Kelly, D-Arizona
> Projected odds of winning in Nov. 2022: 82%
> Assumed office in: 2020
> Campaign fundraising: $52.4 million (91.1% of total race fundraising)
> Opponent: Blake Masters (R)

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Source: Darren McCollester / Getty Images

23. Sen. Margaret Hassan, D-New Hampshire
> Projected odds of winning in Nov. 2022: 84%
> Assumed office in: 2017
> Campaign fundraising: $30.9 million (98.1% of total race fundraising)
> Opponent: Don Bolduc (R)

Source: Joe Raedle / Getty Images News via Getty Images

22. Sen. Marco Rubio, R-Florida
> Projected odds of winning in Nov. 2022: 86%
> Assumed office in: 2011
> Campaign fundraising: $36.5 million (43.5% of total race fundraising)
> Opponent: Val Demings (D)

Source: Justin Sullivan / Getty Images News via Getty Images

21. Sen. Michael Bennet, D-Colorado
> Projected odds of winning in Nov. 2022: 92%
> Assumed office in: 2009
> Campaign fundraising: $14.3 million (80.2% of total race fundraising)
> Opponent: Joe O’Dea (R)

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Source: Tasos Katopodis / Getty Images

20. Sen. Mike Lee, R-Utah
> Projected odds of winning in Nov. 2022: 93%
> Assumed office in: 2011
> Campaign fundraising: $7.9 million (71.0% of total race fundraising)
> Opponent: Evan McMullin (I)

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19. Sen. John Kennedy, R-Louisiana
> Projected odds of winning in Nov. 2022: 93%
> Assumed office in: 2017
> Campaign fundraising: $28.3 million (91.6% of total race fundraising)
> Opponent: Luke Mixon (D)

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18. Sen. Todd Young, R-Indiana
> Projected odds of winning in Nov. 2022: 97%
> Assumed office in: 2017
> Campaign fundraising: $13.0 million (95.0% of total race fundraising)
> Opponent: Tom McDermott (D)

Source: Chip Somodevilla / Getty Images News via Getty Images

17. Sen. Patty Murray, D-Washington
> Projected odds of winning in Nov. 2022: 97%
> Assumed office in: 1993
> Campaign fundraising: $14.3 million (66.9% of total race fundraising)
> Opponent: Tiffany Smiley (R)

Source: Chip Somodevilla / Getty Images

16. Sen. Chuck Grassley, R-Iowa
> Projected odds of winning in Nov. 2022: 98%
> Assumed office in: 1981
> Campaign fundraising: $7.5 million (61.9% of total race fundraising)
> Opponent: Mike Franken (D)

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Source: Alex Wong / Getty Images

15. Sen. John Hoeven, R-North Dakota
> Projected odds of winning in Nov. 2022: >99%
> Assumed office in: 2011
> Campaign fundraising: $3.5 million (99.2% of total race fundraising)
> Opponent: Katrina Christiansen (D)

Source: Sarah Silbiger / Getty Images News via Getty Images

14. Sen. Brian Schatz, D-Hawaii
> Projected odds of winning in Nov. 2022: >99%
> Assumed office in: 2012
> Campaign fundraising: $4.2 million (99.7% of total race fundraising)
> Opponent: Bob McDermott (R)

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Source: usdagov / Flickr

13. Sen. Jerry Moran, R-Kansas
> Projected odds of winning in Nov. 2022: >99%
> Assumed office in: 2011
> Campaign fundraising: $6.0 million (93.2% of total race fundraising)
> Opponent: Mark Holland (D)

12. Sen. Mike Crapo, R-Idaho
> Projected odds of winning in Nov. 2022: >99%
> Assumed office in: 1999
> Campaign fundraising: $6.2 million (98.8% of total race fundraising)
> Opponent: David Roth (D)

Source: Win McNamee / Getty Images

11. Sen. James Lankford, R-Oklahoma
> Projected odds of winning in Nov. 2022: >99%
> Assumed office in: 2015
> Campaign fundraising: $6.4 million (97.6% of total race fundraising)
> Opponent: Madison Horn (D)

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Source: Justin Sullivan / Getty Images

10. Sen. John Boozman, R-Arkansas
> Projected odds of winning in Nov. 2022: >99%
> Assumed office in: 2011
> Campaign fundraising: $6.7 million (99.3% of total race fundraising)
> Opponent: Natalie James (D)

Source: Mark Wilson / Getty Images

9. Sen. Chris Van Hollen, D-Maryland
> Projected odds of winning in Nov. 2022: >99%
> Assumed office in: 2017
> Campaign fundraising: $8.0 million (100.0% of total race fundraising)
> Opponent: Chris Chaffee (R)

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Source: Chip Somodevilla / Getty Images News via Getty Images

8. Sen. Richard Blumenthal, D-Connecticut
> Projected odds of winning in Nov. 2022: >99%
> Assumed office in: 2011
> Campaign fundraising: $8.1 million (85.4% of total race fundraising)
> Opponent: Leora Levy (R)

Source: arlingtonnatl / Flickr / Public Domain

7. Sen. Alex Padilla, D-California
> Projected odds of winning in Nov. 2022: >99%
> Assumed office in: 2021
> Campaign fundraising: $10.6 million (95.5% of total race fundraising)
> Opponent: Mark Meuser (R)

Source: Chip Somodevilla / Getty Images News via Getty Images

6. Sen. John Thune, R-South Dakota
> Projected odds of winning in Nov. 2022: >99%
> Assumed office in: 2005
> Campaign fundraising: $11.2 million (98.7% of total race fundraising)
> Opponent: Brian Bengs (D)

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Source: Alex Wong / Getty Images News via Getty Images

5. Sen. Ron Wyden, D-Oregon
> Projected odds of winning in Nov. 2022: >99%
> Assumed office in: 1996
> Campaign fundraising: $12.5 million (99.7% of total race fundraising)
> Opponent: Jo Rae Perkins (R)

Source: Chip Somodevilla / Getty Images

4. Sen. Tammy Duckworth, D-Illinois
> Projected odds of winning in Nov. 2022: >99%
> Assumed office in: 2017
> Campaign fundraising: $17.7 million (97.5% of total race fundraising)
> Opponent: Kathy Salvi (R)

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Source: Chip Somodevilla / Getty Images

3. Sen. Rand Paul, R-Kentucky
> Projected odds of winning in Nov. 2022: >99%
> Assumed office in: 2011
> Campaign fundraising: $22.4 million (83.2% of total race fundraising)
> Opponent: Charles Booker (D)

Source: Chip Somodevilla / Getty Images News via Getty Images

2. Sen. Charles Schumer, D-New York
> Projected odds of winning in Nov. 2022: >99%
> Assumed office in: 1999
> Campaign fundraising: $38.5 million (98.8% of total race fundraising)
> Opponent: Joseph Pinion III (R)

Source: Chip Somodevilla / Getty Images News via Getty Images

1. Sen. Tim Scott, R-South Carolina
> Projected odds of winning in Nov. 2022: >99%
> Assumed office in: 2013
> Campaign fundraising: $44.3 million (99.8% of total race fundraising)
> Opponent: Krystle Matthews (D)

Methodology

To identify the U.S. senators who are most likely to win in the November 2022 midterm elections, 24/7 Wall St. reviewed fundraising and polling data for each of the 28 incumbent senators running for reelection. 

Using polling data analysis from data analytics company FiveThirtyEight, we selected those senators who are projected to have at least an 80% chance of winning the election. FiveThirtyEight’s projections are based on polling data that is weighted for pollster quality and sample size. All polling data is current as of Oct. 3, 2022. 

We also reviewed campaign fundraising data from the Federal Election Commission, compiled by the nonprofit, nonpartisan campaign finance transparency website, OpenSecrets. All fundraising data is current as of Oct. 4, 2022. 

Senators in this story are ranked by their odds of winning. In the case of a tie, the senator who has raised the most in campaign contributions ranks higher. In listing opponents, we only considered those running in one of the two major political parties. 

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