Special Report

Nations Most Concerned About World War III

Michael B. Sauter

Published: January 3, 2024 1:35 pm

Growing disagreements between several nations have led to an increase in global tensions in the past few years. With the ongoing war in Ukraine, the conflict between Israel and Hamas, and continuing tensions between China, Taiwan, and the United States, global tensions may be at their highest point in several decades. Russia’s invasion of Ukraine in 2022 resulted in Western sanctions against Moscow, and the arms sent to the besieged nation have created an effective proxy war between some of the world’s biggest military powers. Meanwhile, Russian President Vladimir Putin continues to threaten severe retaliation against Ukraine’s allies, including threats to use his tremendous nuclear arsenal. (Also read: here are the countries with the most nuclear disasters.) 

To find which nations have high concerns about WWIII, 247wallst reviewed a recent survey conducted by global market research firm Ipsos on behalf of the Halifax International Security Forum. Depending on the country, the fear of large-scale global conflict varies. It was found that 73% of people surveyed in some of the world’s largest countries believe that in the next 25 years, a major global conflict similar in scope to the World Wars is likely to occur. That represents a substantial increase from 2021 when that figure was 63%.  

Ipsos surveyed over 32,000 adults in 33 countries. The countries listed here are ranked by the percentage of recipients who responded “somewhat agree” or “strongly agree” to the statement: “I expect in the next 25 years we could see another world conflict involving superpowers similar to World Wars 1 & 2.” In addition to listing the survey results, 24/7 Wall St. added military spending as a percentage of a country’s gross domestic product and per capita military spending, adjusted for 2021 U.S. dollars, from the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute Military Expenditure Database. 

There are many sources of rising geopolitical tension besides the conflict between Russia and those aiding Ukraine. China has increased its threats against Taiwan, with record military incursions over the self-ruled island, which it claims as its territory. There are fears that military action by China to assert control over Taiwan could spark a U.S.-China war. Relations between the two superpowers are already somewhat tense, heightened after Nancy Pelosi, who at the time was the Speaker of the U.S. House of Representatives, visited the island nation. In retaliation, China conducted the most intense military training exercises near Taiwan. (Also see, the U.S. government is involved in secret wars in 15 countries.)

Despite this raised tension, it is interesting to see that China has one of the lowest shares of people reporting expectations of a global conflict in the near future, at 64%, tied for fifth-lowest among the 33 countries surveyed. Of the world’s three largest superpowers, Americans are the most likely to believe World War III is imminent, at 76%. Russia was not included in the survey, but 70% of Ukrainians believe the same.

Here are the nations most concerned about World War III.

33. Japan

Source: Mari05 / iStock via Getty Images

• Population expecting worldwide conflict within 25 yrs, 2022: 51.0%
• Population expecting worldwide conflict within 25 yrs, 2021: 36.0%
• Pop. fearing a nuclear, chemical, or biological attack in the next year, 2022: 81.0%
• Population believing gov’t should spend more on military, 2022: 52.0%
• Military expenditure per capita, 2022: $429 — #33 highest of 149
• Military expenditure as pct. of GDP, 2022: 2.5% — #124 highest of 146

32. Sweden

Source: fotoVoyager / iStock via Getty Images

• Population expecting worldwide conflict within 25 yrs, 2022: 60.0%
• Population expecting worldwide conflict within 25 yrs, 2021: 49.0%
• Pop. fearing a nuclear, chemical, or biological attack in the next year, 2022: 75.0%
• Population believing gov’t should spend more on military, 2022: 76.0%
• Military expenditure per capita, 2022: $776 — #19 highest of 149
• Military expenditure as pct. of GDP, 2022: 2.4% — #127 highest of 146

31. Germany

Source: Nikada / E+ via Getty Images

• Population expecting worldwide conflict within 25 yrs, 2022: 63.0% — tied
• Population expecting worldwide conflict within 25 yrs, 2021: 46.0%
• Pop. fearing a nuclear, chemical, or biological attack in the next year, 2022: 73.0%
• Population believing gov’t should spend more on military, 2022: 65.0%
• Military expenditure per capita, 2022: $668 — #23 highest of 149
• Military expenditure as pct. of GDP, 2022: 2.5% — #124 highest of 146

30. Indonesia

Source: Yamtono_Sardi / iStock Unreleased via Getty Images

• Population expecting worldwide conflict within 25 yrs, 2022: 63.0% — tied
• Population expecting worldwide conflict within 25 yrs, 2021: N/A
• Pop. fearing a nuclear, chemical, or biological attack in the next year, 2022: 68.0%
• Population believing gov’t should spend more on military, 2022: 76.0%
• Military expenditure per capita, 2022: $30 — #103 highest of 149
• Military expenditure as pct. of GDP, 2022: 3.9% — #91 highest of 146

29. Italy

Source: MasterLu / iStock via Getty Images

• Population expecting worldwide conflict within 25 yrs, 2022: 64.0% — tied
• Population expecting worldwide conflict within 25 yrs, 2021: 45.0%
• Pop. fearing a nuclear, chemical, or biological attack in the next year, 2022: 65.0%
• Population believing gov’t should spend more on military, 2022: 43.0%
• Military expenditure per capita, 2022: $530 — #28 highest of 149
• Military expenditure as pct. of GDP, 2022: 2.6% — #121 highest of 146

28. China

Source: tcly / iStock via Getty Images

• Population expecting worldwide conflict within 25 yrs, 2022: 64.0% — tied
• Population expecting worldwide conflict within 25 yrs, 2021: 58.0%
• Pop. fearing a nuclear, chemical, or biological attack in the next year, 2022: N/A
• Population believing gov’t should spend more on military, 2022: N/A
• Military expenditure per capita, 2022: $203 — #54 highest of 149
• Military expenditure as pct. of GDP, 2022: 5.0% — #62 highest of 146

27. Hungary

Source: PEDRE / E+ via Getty Images

• Population expecting worldwide conflict within 25 yrs, 2022: 67.0%
• Population expecting worldwide conflict within 25 yrs, 2021: 57.0%
• Pop. fearing a nuclear, chemical, or biological attack in the next year, 2022: 73.0%
• Population believing gov’t should spend more on military, 2022: 46.0%
• Military expenditure per capita, 2022: $288 — #46 highest of 149
• Military expenditure as pct. of GDP, 2022: 3.2% — #106 highest of 146

26. South Korea

Source: SeanPavonePhoto / iStock via Getty Images

• Population expecting worldwide conflict within 25 yrs, 2022: 69.0%
• Population expecting worldwide conflict within 25 yrs, 2021: 52.0%
• Pop. fearing a nuclear, chemical, or biological attack in the next year, 2022: 67.0%
• Population believing gov’t should spend more on military, 2022: 71.0%
• Military expenditure per capita, 2022: $979 — #13 highest of 149
• Military expenditure as pct. of GDP, 2022: 10.5% — #23 highest of 146

25. Poland

Source: castenoid / Getty Images

• Population expecting worldwide conflict within 25 yrs, 2022: 70.0% — tied
• Population expecting worldwide conflict within 25 yrs, 2021: 66.0%
• Pop. fearing a nuclear, chemical, or biological attack in the next year, 2022: 72.0%
• Population believing gov’t should spend more on military, 2022: 81.0%
• Military expenditure per capita, 2022: $363 — #40 highest of 149
• Military expenditure as pct. of GDP, 2022: 4.6% — #72 highest of 146

24. Ukraine

Source: olga_prava / iStock via Getty Images

• Population expecting worldwide conflict within 25 yrs, 2022: 70.0% — tied
• Population expecting worldwide conflict within 25 yrs, 2021: N/A
• Pop. fearing a nuclear, chemical, or biological attack in the next year, 2022: N/A
• Population believing gov’t should spend more on military, 2022: 92.0%
• Military expenditure per capita, 2022: $137 — #64 highest of 149
• Military expenditure as pct. of GDP, 2022: 7.8% — #40 highest of 146

23. Turkey

Source: Thankful Photography / iStock via Getty Images

• Population expecting worldwide conflict within 25 yrs, 2022: 71.0% — tied
• Population expecting worldwide conflict within 25 yrs, 2021: 63.0%
• Pop. fearing a nuclear, chemical, or biological attack in the next year, 2022: 82.0%
• Population believing gov’t should spend more on military, 2022: 74.0%
• Military expenditure per capita, 2022: $182 — #57 highest of 149
• Military expenditure as pct. of GDP, 2022: 6.3% — #51 highest of 146

22. Argentina

Source: narvikk / iStock via Getty Images

• Population expecting worldwide conflict within 25 yrs, 2022: 71.0% — tied
• Population expecting worldwide conflict within 25 yrs, 2021: 66.0%
• Pop. fearing a nuclear, chemical, or biological attack in the next year, 2022: 73.0%
• Population believing gov’t should spend more on military, 2022: 56.0%
• Military expenditure per capita, 2022: $57 — #86 highest of 149
• Military expenditure as pct. of GDP, 2022: 0.0% — # highest of 146

21. Brazil

Source: diegograndi / iStock Editorial via Getty Images

• Population expecting worldwide conflict within 25 yrs, 2022: 72.0%
• Population expecting worldwide conflict within 25 yrs, 2021: 62.0%
• Pop. fearing a nuclear, chemical, or biological attack in the next year, 2022: 69.0%
• Population believing gov’t should spend more on military, 2022: 51.0%
• Military expenditure per capita, 2022: $90 — #73 highest of 149
• Military expenditure as pct. of GDP, 2022: 3.3% — #104 highest of 146

20. Saudi Arabia

Source: swisshippo / iStock via Getty Images

• Population expecting worldwide conflict within 25 yrs, 2022: 74.0%
• Population expecting worldwide conflict within 25 yrs, 2021: 62.0%
• Pop. fearing a nuclear, chemical, or biological attack in the next year, 2022: N/A
• Population believing gov’t should spend more on military, 2022: N/A
• Military expenditure per capita, 2022: $1,572 — #6 highest of 149
• Military expenditure as pct. of GDP, 2022: 20.5% — #4 highest of 146

19. Great Britain

Source: Vladislav Zolotov / iStock via Getty Images

• Population expecting worldwide conflict within 25 yrs, 2022: 75.0% — tied
• Population expecting worldwide conflict within 25 yrs, 2021: 56.0%
• Pop. fearing a nuclear, chemical, or biological attack in the next year, 2022: 77.0%
• Population believing gov’t should spend more on military, 2022: 71.0%
• Military expenditure per capita, 2022: $1,002 — #12 highest of 149
• Military expenditure as pct. of GDP, 2022: 4.7% — #69 highest of 146

18. France

Source: aristotoo / E+ via Getty Images

• Population expecting worldwide conflict within 25 yrs, 2022: 75.0% — tied
• Population expecting worldwide conflict within 25 yrs, 2021: 59.0%
• Pop. fearing a nuclear, chemical, or biological attack in the next year, 2022: 63.0%
• Population believing gov’t should spend more on military, 2022: 66.0%
• Military expenditure per capita, 2022: $866 — #15 highest of 149
• Military expenditure as pct. of GDP, 2022: 3.2% — #106 highest of 146

17. Netherlands

Source: mihaiulia / iStock via Getty Images

• Population expecting worldwide conflict within 25 yrs, 2022: 75.0% — tied
• Population expecting worldwide conflict within 25 yrs, 2021: 60.0%
• Pop. fearing a nuclear, chemical, or biological attack in the next year, 2022: 72.0%
• Population believing gov’t should spend more on military, 2022: 71.0%
• Military expenditure per capita, 2022: $801 — #16 highest of 149
• Military expenditure as pct. of GDP, 2022: 2.9% — #115 highest of 146

16. Spain

Source: filophoto / iStock via Getty Images

• Population expecting worldwide conflict within 25 yrs, 2022: 75.0% — tied
• Population expecting worldwide conflict within 25 yrs, 2021: 70.0%
• Pop. fearing a nuclear, chemical, or biological attack in the next year, 2022: 76.0%
• Population believing gov’t should spend more on military, 2022: 51.0%
• Military expenditure per capita, 2022: $418 — #37 highest of 149
• Military expenditure as pct. of GDP, 2022: 2.7% — #117 highest of 146

15. South Africa

Source: JacquesKloppers / iStock via Getty Images

• Population expecting worldwide conflict within 25 yrs, 2022: 75.0% — tied
• Population expecting worldwide conflict within 25 yrs, 2021: 72.0%
• Pop. fearing a nuclear, chemical, or biological attack in the next year, 2022: 81.0%
• Population believing gov’t should spend more on military, 2022: 73.0%
• Military expenditure per capita, 2022: $54 — #89 highest of 149
• Military expenditure as pct. of GDP, 2022: N/A — # highest of 146

14. UAE

Source: Juergen Sack / iStock Unreleased via Getty Images

• Population expecting worldwide conflict within 25 yrs, 2022: 75.0% — tied
• Population expecting worldwide conflict within 25 yrs, 2021: N/A
• Pop. fearing a nuclear, chemical, or biological attack in the next year, 2022: N/A
• Population believing gov’t should spend more on military, 2022: N/A
• Military expenditure per capita, 2022: $!Unexpected End of Formula — # highest of 149
• Military expenditure as pct. of GDP, 2022: N/A — # highest of 146

13. Canada

Source: bukharova / iStock via Getty Images

• Population expecting worldwide conflict within 25 yrs, 2022: 76.0% — tied
• Population expecting worldwide conflict within 25 yrs, 2021: 63.0%
• Pop. fearing a nuclear, chemical, or biological attack in the next year, 2022: 73.0%
• Population believing gov’t should spend more on military, 2022: 65.0%
• Military expenditure per capita, 2022: $695 — #22 highest of 149
• Military expenditure as pct. of GDP, 2022: 2.7% — #117 highest of 146

12. United States

Source: drnadig / E+ via Getty Images

• Population expecting worldwide conflict within 25 yrs, 2022: 76.0% — tied
• Population expecting worldwide conflict within 25 yrs, 2021: 70.0%
• Pop. fearing a nuclear, chemical, or biological attack in the next year, 2022: 77.0%
• Population believing gov’t should spend more on military, 2022: 62.0%
• Military expenditure per capita, 2022: $2,405 — #3 highest of 149
• Military expenditure as pct. of GDP, 2022: 8.3% — #34 highest of 146

11. Belgium

Source: MarioGuti / iStock via Getty Images

• Population expecting worldwide conflict within 25 yrs, 2022: 77.0% — tied
• Population expecting worldwide conflict within 25 yrs, 2021: 59.0%
• Pop. fearing a nuclear, chemical, or biological attack in the next year, 2022: 71.0%
• Population believing gov’t should spend more on military, 2022: 55.0%
• Military expenditure per capita, 2022: $543 — #27 highest of 149
• Military expenditure as pct. of GDP, 2022: 1.9% — #133 highest of 146

10. Romania

Source: karenfoleyphotography / iStock via Getty Images

• Population expecting worldwide conflict within 25 yrs, 2022: 77.0% — tied
• Population expecting worldwide conflict within 25 yrs, 2021: N/A
• Pop. fearing a nuclear, chemical, or biological attack in the next year, 2022: 77.0%
• Population believing gov’t should spend more on military, 2022: 74.0%
• Military expenditure per capita, 2022: $291 — #44 highest of 149
• Military expenditure as pct. of GDP, 2022: 5.3% — #59 highest of 146

9. Malaysia

Source: Kapook2981 / iStock via Getty Images

• Population expecting worldwide conflict within 25 yrs, 2022: 78.0% — tied
• Population expecting worldwide conflict within 25 yrs, 2021: 74.0%
• Pop. fearing a nuclear, chemical, or biological attack in the next year, 2022: 69.0%
• Population believing gov’t should spend more on military, 2022: 72.0%
• Military expenditure per capita, 2022: $117 — #68 highest of 149
• Military expenditure as pct. of GDP, 2022: 4.0% — #88 highest of 146

8. Chile

Chileans (CC BY 2.0) by Francisco Anzola

• Population expecting worldwide conflict within 25 yrs, 2022: 78.0% — tied
• Population expecting worldwide conflict within 25 yrs, 2021: 76.0%
• Pop. fearing a nuclear, chemical, or biological attack in the next year, 2022: 77.0%
• Population believing gov’t should spend more on military, 2022: 51.0%
• Military expenditure per capita, 2022: $324 — #43 highest of 149
• Military expenditure as pct. of GDP, 2022: 5.9% — #53 highest of 146

7. Colombia

Source: dalomo84 / iStock Editorial via Getty Images

• Population expecting worldwide conflict within 25 yrs, 2022: 78.0% — tied
• Population expecting worldwide conflict within 25 yrs, 2021: 77.0%
• Pop. fearing a nuclear, chemical, or biological attack in the next year, 2022: 79.0%
• Population believing gov’t should spend more on military, 2022: 42.0%
• Military expenditure per capita, 2022: $199 — #55 highest of 149
• Military expenditure as pct. of GDP, 2022: 9.6% — #26 highest of 146

6. Thailand

Source: em100s / iStock via Getty Images

• Population expecting worldwide conflict within 25 yrs, 2022: 78.0% — tied
• Population expecting worldwide conflict within 25 yrs, 2021: N/A
• Pop. fearing a nuclear, chemical, or biological attack in the next year, 2022: 84.0%
• Population believing gov’t should spend more on military, 2022: 48.0%
• Military expenditure per capita, 2022: $94 — #72 highest of 149
• Military expenditure as pct. of GDP, 2022: 4.8% — #64 highest of 146

5. India

Source: jacus / iStock via Getty Images

• Population expecting worldwide conflict within 25 yrs, 2022: 79.0%
• Population expecting worldwide conflict within 25 yrs, 2021: 75.0%
• Pop. fearing a nuclear, chemical, or biological attack in the next year, 2022: 72.0%
• Population believing gov’t should spend more on military, 2022: 84.0%
• Military expenditure per capita, 2022: $55 — #88 highest of 149
• Military expenditure as pct. of GDP, 2022: 8.3% — #34 highest of 146

4. Mexico

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• Population expecting worldwide conflict within 25 yrs, 2022: 80.0% — tied
• Population expecting worldwide conflict within 25 yrs, 2021: 72.0%
• Pop. fearing a nuclear, chemical, or biological attack in the next year, 2022: 78.0%
• Population believing gov’t should spend more on military, 2022: 54.0%
• Military expenditure per capita, 2022: $67 — #83 highest of 149
• Military expenditure as pct. of GDP, 2022: 2.4% — #127 highest of 146

3. Peru

Source: Myriam Borzee / Getty Images

• Population expecting worldwide conflict within 25 yrs, 2022: 80.0% — tied
• Population expecting worldwide conflict within 25 yrs, 2021: 77.0%
• Pop. fearing a nuclear, chemical, or biological attack in the next year, 2022: 80.0%
• Population believing gov’t should spend more on military, 2022: 57.0%
• Military expenditure per capita, 2022: $71 — #81 highest of 149
• Military expenditure as pct. of GDP, 2022: 4.5% — #74 highest of 146

2. Ireland

Source: MOF / E+ via Getty Images

• Population expecting worldwide conflict within 25 yrs, 2022: 80.0% — tied
• Population expecting worldwide conflict within 25 yrs, 2021: N/A
• Pop. fearing a nuclear, chemical, or biological attack in the next year, 2022: 78.0%
• Population believing gov’t should spend more on military, 2022: 59.0%
• Military expenditure per capita, 2022: $254 — #48 highest of 149
• Military expenditure as pct. of GDP, 2022: 1.0% — #145 highest of 146

1. Australia

Source: Mlenny / E+ via Getty Images

• Population expecting worldwide conflict within 25 yrs, 2022: 81.0%
• Population expecting worldwide conflict within 25 yrs, 2021: 73.0%
• Pop. fearing a nuclear, chemical, or biological attack in the next year, 2022: 78.0%
• Population believing gov’t should spend more on military, 2022: 68.0%
• Military expenditure per capita, 2022: $1,231 — #8 highest of 149
• Military expenditure as pct. of GDP, 2022: 4.6% — #72 highest of 146