Technology

Is the Fuel Cell Surge Getting Out of Hand?

Hydrogen fuel cell
Source: Thinkstock
Alternative energy company FuelCell Energy Inc. (NASDAQ: FCEL) began trading Monday morning at a 13% premium to Friday’s closing price, which was 18% higher than Thursday’s close. Friday’s bump came from the announcement of a $2.8 million contract continuation from the U.S. Department of Energy for a demonstration project of the company’s fuel cell technology that is scheduled to be completed by the end of the year.

We noted on Friday that for every dollar in that contract FuelCell’s market cap rose by $14, and because we have seen no further news this morning, that $2.8 million contract appears to be paying an even bigger dividend.

What started the run was an announcement two weeks ago from Plug Power Inc. (NASDAQ: PLUG) that it had won a significant order for fuel cell-driven forklifts from Wal-Mart Stores Inc. (NYSE: WMT). It seems that any company that has anything to do with fuel cells is on a rocket-ride to new highs, and there is not a lot of real folding money behind the enthusiasm.

Ballard Power Systems Inc. (NASDAQ: BLDP) was trading around $1.25 in November, before scoring a contract for fuel cell-driven buses for Netherlands-based Van Hool. When that contract was announced, the stock rose to $1.70. A second contract signing in February pushed the stock above $2 a share, and the shares have made small but steady gains. Then the Plug Power announcement hit and the shares jumped to more than $5. They are trading today as high as $6.20. Great news, unless you bought the stock in early 2000, when it was priced at $129 a share.

And if the blow-out tops on fuel cell stocks remind you of the run-up in solar stocks of five or so years ago, you are not the only one. Shares of First Solar Inc. (NASDAQ: FSLR) jumped 1,100% in about six months, from early 2007 to mid 2008. SunPower Corp. (NASDAQ: SPWR) was up 300%, and Chinese solar panel maker Trina Solar Ltd. (NYSE: TSL) was up about 250% in the same time frame. By mid-2012, all were trading at a loss, compared with their price in early 2007. Some have recovered a bit, and some — Suntech Power, for example — have not.

FuelCell Energy is scheduled to release its fiscal first-quarter earnings report after markets close Monday. Analysts expect an earnings per share loss of $0.04 on revenues of $43.44 million. Because analysts are forecasting losses as far as the eye can see, the company’s P/E ratio is infinitely high. Investors will be looking for some clue in the earnings report that FuelCell expects to turn those losses around. And there will be enough who find what they hope to find to keep the momentum going on this stock and some of its peers for at least a while longer.

FuelCell shares were trading at $4.00, up 13.6%, in the first hour of trading Monday morning, after posting a new high of $4.17. The 52-week low is $0.84. Volume was already triple the daily average of 11 million shares traded.

Ballard shares posted a new 52-week high of $6.25 as well, against a 52-week low of $0.76. The stock was up 14.6% at $6.05. Volume was double the daily average of 5 million shares.

Plug Power stock also hit a new 52-week high of $9.60 Monday morning. The stock’s 52-week low is $0.15. Shares traded at $9.54 and volume was 38 million shares, more than 25% higher than the daily average.

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