Full IBM Earnings Preview

IBM’s earnings expectations are for $2.54 per share and $22.91 billion in revenue. IBM also has a price-to-book value of 9.11 to 1, which is somewhat high, and its market cap is almost $205.5 billion. IBM’s forward price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio is about 10 for next year. With a consensus target price of $192.38 from Thomson Reuters, it has an implied downside of 2.4%. IBM recently closed at $197.02, and the 52-week price range is $172.19 to $211.98.

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The first thing we would point out is that IBM was downgraded to Neutral from Buy at Citigroup just this week ahead of the earnings report. Also, Credit Suisse reiterated its Underperform rating and $160 price target last week.

IBM is always a wild card for the stock market because it is such a large Dow Jones Industrial Average component. As we have pointed out before, this is a value trap disguised as a value stock.

Mid-day trading is confused over IBM’s report. The stock was up four cents at $197.06 in late morning trading. We expect that IBM will again maintain its goal of at least $20 in earnings per share by the end of 2015.

IBM’s chart actually looks far better than its fundamentals. Shares have risen from $182 over the past month and from $172 at the start of February. Its 50-day moving average is down at $187.22, and the 200-day moving average is even lower at $184.15. In short, IBM has a lot of upside that has taken place during a tough market, and the strong support is considerably under the current stock price.