Is FedEx Actually in Trouble With China?

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A recent analyst report suggested that FedEx Corp. (NYSE: FDX) could be hurt by the trade war with China. While shares of the package delivery firm saw a bump early Tuesday, a strong start to the trading session appeared to be lifting all boats.

UBS’s Thomas Wadewitz has a Sell rating for the stock and lowered the price target to $145 from $161, implying downside of 6% from Friday’s closing price of $154.28. Note that this is the biggest bear for FedEx in recent memory.

FedEx posted revenues of roughly $65.45 billion at the end of its previous fiscal year. Consensus estimates are calling for $69.78 billion in revenue for the current fiscal year, which ended in May, though FedEx is not reporting until late June. UBS is estimating that China-related business revenue is roughly $4.5 billion, or about 6% of total revenue.

Wadewitz detailed in the report:

While it is difficult to anticipate the outcome [of China’s investigation], we believe it is reasonable to anticipate pressure on [FedEx’s] business with a portion of its China outbound customers which adds to the current backdrop of weak international airfreight activity.

UBS cut its fiscal 2020 and 2021 earnings per share (EPS) estimates to $15.00 from $15.45 and $15.25 from $16.50, respectively. The consensus earnings estimates are $16.66 per share in 2020 and $18.41 per share in 2021.

Shares of FedEx were trading up 1.4% at $154.44 on last look, in a 52-week range of $150.68 to $266.67. The consensus price target is $208.48.

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