Daily Archives: April 9, 2007

Motorola Sees A Little More Icahn

Carl Ichan has upped his stake in Motorola (MOT) to 2.9% from 2.7%. The raider wants the telecom equipment and handset manufacturer to do something with its $11 billion in cash.

Icahn would probably be satisfied if MOT bought back some shares, in essence raising earnings per share (as long as the company doesn’t make a habit of losing money). Or, the firm might start to pay a much larger dividend. Currently, Motorola’s yield is 1.1%. With the cash on hand, it would not surprise anyone that they could double that.

Of course, either of these actions by Motorola would benefit Icahn. And, Icahn would argue that it would benefit all the other shareholders as well.

That may be true, but it may only be true short term.

The most significant problem at the company is that its RAZR handset was a one-hit wonder. It sold like hot cakes but did not have the "legs" of something like the Apple (AAPL) iPod which has sold 100 million units. Apple says most customers getting an iPod are first-time buyers.

Motorola, on the other hand, has to replace the RAZR with something that will sell as well as it did. That has not happened. It also may not happen, which leaves the company in a bind.

Motorola’s other big business is telecom equipment. It is the big infrastructure products that large telephone companies use to build their networks. If the handset business is going to take a long time to recover, the telecom equipment side of the house may have to pick up its pace.

That takes Wall St. back to the $11 million. There are at least two telecom equipment companies that could use new owners.

One is the newly merged Alcatel-Lucent (ALU) which has a broad array of products and a massive sales force. It is badly run and the integration of the two companies is going poorly, but that may be an opportunity for a new parent. The potential cost cuts coming from combining the two companies are significant. Alcatel-Lucent has a market cap of $29 billion. Despite its troubles, Morningstar writes glowingly about the company: "Alcatel-Lucent is one of the few truly global, diversified telecom equipment vendors, which should help insulate it from the spending whims of any one carrier."

The other company in the sector that has been doing poorly but now appears to be getting firm footing is Nortel (NT). The company has both large wireline and wireless businesses. It is run by a former Motorola senior executive. It has a market cap of $10.5 billion.

Mr. Icahn wants his money back. Motorola might be better served using its cash to build a broader base outside the handset business. It would make the road ahead a littler smoother.

Douglas A. McIntyre can be reached at douglasamcintyre@247wallst.com. He does not own securities in companies that he writes about.

Apple: Most iPod Sales Still To New Users

Apple (AAPL) announced that it had sold it 100 millionth iPod. It market share for MP3 players is now over 70% in the US and over 50% in Japan.

The company has sold over 2.5 billion songs on iTunes.

The extraordinary part of the Apple news is that most iPod sales sales are still to

According to The Wall Street Journal–Apple said the company is still primarily selling iPods to first-time buyers. "It’s hard to imagine where the saturation point is," said Philip Schiller, Apple’s senior vice president of worldwide marketing. "It’s anybody’s guess."

Which means that the iPod could go on and on.

Stunning.

Douglas A. McIntyre

Alcoa (AA) Earnings Tomorrow After the Close

From Ticker Sense

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The 52 Week Low Club

Micron Technology (MU) Mega-semi company falls as Goldman downgrades stock after poor financial showing. DRAM inventories still hurting prices. Drops to $11.13. Down from 52-week high of $18.65.

McClatchy (MNI) Shares of big newspaper chain keep falling as outlook for industry worses. Down to $30.86 from $50.64.

Sourcefire (FIRE) Network security software company says customer revenue is coming in more slowly than expected. IPO from March drops to $11.87. Down from $18.83 in such a short time. Shocking.

Conexant (CNXT) Communications chip maker says lack of demand will cause shortfall in most recent quarter. Stock falls to $1.50. The 52-week high was $3.90.

Rackable Systems (RACK) Competition in core server market will cause loss in most recent quarter. Stock down to $13.28. Drop from 52-week high of $55.25.

Vonage (VG) Bad luck for VoIP company with courts. Concern that service may be shut down. Drops to $2.88 from 52-week high of $17.25.

Douglas A. McIntyre

Market Comments From TheStockMasters

Sourcefire Inc. (FIRE) hits a new 52-week low after the Network Security company IPO’d back in March 07. Sourcefire’s shares are down 27% today and trading around $12.50 after they forecasted a Q1 net loss of $2.2M to $2.6M on revenue of $10.1M to $10.5M.
Just a few months ago Sourcefire (with $39M in accumulated deficit) went public valued at 7.5 times revenue. Shares of FIRE have traded up to $18.83 during the past few months, but today it’s going down in flames. The company is built around SNORT® – its open source intrusion prevention and detection technology. Why they didn’t go Beavis & Buttheadwith a Beavis and Butthead logo is beyond me, why choose a pig when your ticker is FIRE?!! Come on, Beavis would love it. It’s early in the game for Sourcefire, and now that the stock has dropped, it may be worth watching. SNORT has had 3,000,000 downloads, which is almost how many times Beavis and Butthead have downloaded pictures of Britney Spears. Think FIRE is worth investing in? Let’s give it a few months, but by all means, place your bets gentlemen. The only thing Sourcefire’s management is worrying about today is T.P. for their bunghole, right Beavis?

Cohen Is the “Top Dog” According to New York Magazine

From 13D Tracker

New York magazine has an interesting profile on hedge funds. The article lists the various "Top Dogs", putting Stevie Cohen of SAC Capital at the first on this list. They also discuss the hedge fund "Bad Boys", (activist we track here), putting Daniel Loeb of ThirdPoint LLC at the top of this list. Notably missing from the "Bad Boys" list (or any other list) is Carl Icahn, but his wife is No. 5 on the Wife List.

Chapman Capital Makes Quick Work of Embarcadero Techn (EMBT)

From 13D Tracker

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Sun Capital Discloses 5% Stake in Alpha Natural Resources (ANR)

From 13D Tracker

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Buffet Makes the Smart Monopoly® Play, But Will Shareholders Enjoy the Ride?

Buffet is comparable to nobody else but Greenspan when it comes to making news on the slightest “ahem”, so a broad investment in three railroad stocks needs little introduction.

Today Berkshire Hathaway (BRK.A) is disclosing a $3.25 billion equity investment in Burlington Northern Santa Fe (BNI), and another $1b spread across two other U.S. railroad companies (of which there are only three candidates, CSX Corp (CSX), Norfolk Southern (NSC), and Union Pacific (UNP).

As expected, all four stocks are up sharply today, with the S&P 500 Rail Index up over 7% earlier this morning, and BNI itself up over 8.5% to just shy of $89/share. 

8.5% is about a standard “Buffet Bounce” for a first-time announcement, but this move will push Burlington Northern to a new all-time high, an area that is not normally associated with Buffet activity. 

But it’s not unheard of from Buffet to invest in a business at its relative peak; he did it with Coca-Cola (KO) in the 1980’s and American Express (AXP) more than once.  At the end of the day he trusts the long-term value of the business, and especially the moat, more than anything.  And you can’t beat the railroads when it comes to attractive moats.

This was the thesis behind our break-up value analysis of Burlington Northern, which postulates that there could be more upside from here.  Our analysis didn’t take into account some of the broad trends that could add to long-term estimates, specifically prospects of increased coal transports from Wyoming, and also is not meant to be a terminal value for the stock but rather an estimate of its floor. 

Buffet’s calculations must have come to similar conclusions to be purchasing BNI stock at its peak, but unfortunately we can’t peek over his shoulder on this one. 

Railroads are obviously very sensitive to the overall economy, but rising fuel prices should continue to favor the rail operators as their pricing becomes a lot more attractive when gas is on the rise. 

Ryan Barnes

April 9, 2007

Ryan Barnes can be reached at ryanbarnes@247wallst.com; he does not own securities in the companies he covers.

Dow’s Buyout Premium is Falling Fast (DOW)

Dow Chemical (DOW) is once again spiking on buyout news this morning, but the stock is falling back below previous highs set on March 26th.  Today the British rumor mill is spitting out a $50 billion pending offer that the Sunday Express says would take Dow private at between $52 to $58 per share, and named a consortium including KKR as the bidding group. 

When another rumor surfaced (with price tag magically attached) from the same source on February 26th, the mid-day price went as high as $47.26 before ending the day just below $45.  Today DOW shares traded briefly as high as $47.49 before falling to the mid-$46 level. 

The “club deal” or group of private equity investors slicing up the take would be of an unprecedented size on this one; this could finally bring the debate over club deal legality into the open.  And the rumored division between Middle Eastern and U.S. sources could create some massive regulatory concerns.  And again, that’s if the story has any basis to it – we’ve heard this cry of “wolf” before.

CNBC’s David Faber doesn’t think the rumor has a lot of merit, and his cited reasons include two very obvious ones: 

#1 – the source is a British tabloid…enough said

#2 – Dow has come out and said publicly that they’re not interested in going private or being split up

I’ll call attention to an important #3, which we highlighted a few weeks ago.  The numerous joint ventures Dow has going on seem to create a web that is thick enough to drive away all but the most serious of private equity bidders. 

Is there still potential upside to DOW shares from here?  Sure, if the break-up values proposed by us and others are accurate, prices below $50/share could be attractive.  But Dow is still a commodity-based business, and how much of a bidding war can we expect on a company already worth $12 billion more than the largest private equity deal in history? (TXU’s pending $30 billion buyout)

Stay tuned, as either rumors will continue to swirl or Dow will make a statement that removes most of the doubt surrounding their motives.  In the meantime, DOW shares trade at the top of their 52-week range of $33 – $47.26.

Ryan Barnes

April 9, 2007

Ryan Barnes can be reached at ryanbarnes@247wallst.com; he does not own securities in the companies he covers.

THC – Tenet Healthcare Corp: Coming Off of Life Support

By Saul Sterman

04/09/2007

The worst is over. Out of the four plagues that struck THC, two have been resolved, progress is being made on one and a cure needs to be found for the fourth.

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The World Gets Worse For AMD, Again

Advanced Micro Devices (AMD) cut its Q1 revenue estimate. It had already done so about a month ago.

The company now expects revenue for $1.23 billion, down from previous forecasts of $1.6 to $1.7 billion.

The company said that its battle with Intel (INTC) had taken its toll and that it would cut hiring and a number of expenses.

The announcement would seem to make the company’s cash position appear more dire. Some Wall St. analysts believe that AMD will have to raise at least $1 billion this year.

That figure may have just gone up.

Douglas A. McIntyre

UST: Parting More Sweet Than Sorrowful for UST’s Former CFO

By William Trent, CFA of Stock Market Beat

We have noted several times over the last week that the departure of a Chief Financial Officer tends to raise alarm bells. And while Mid Cap Watch List and Large Cap Watch List member UST Corp.’s (UST) CFO departure in March was billed at the time as a retirement after 26 years of service with the company, an SEC filing that just happened to occur on the Good Friday market holiday appears to suggest otherwise:

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Jobs Data Picture is Clear as Mud

By William Trent, CFA of Stock Market Beat

Employment Situation Summary

Nonfarm payroll employment rose by 180,000 in March, and the unemployment rate was essentially unchanged at 4.4 percent, the Bureau of Labor Statistics of the U.S. Department of Labor reported today. Employment increased in con- struction, retail trade, and health care. The number of manufacturing jobs continued to trend down. Average hourly earnings rose by 6 cents, or 0.3 per- cent, over the month.

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Test-Driving Joost: Beyond Slick, and Not Really a YouTube Competitor

From Internet Outsider

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Weekly Calendar (April 9-13, 2007)

Monday, April 9
CardioDynamics -$0.04e; Cascade (CAE) $0.75, Lawson Software (LWSN) $0.03, Schnitzer Steel (SCHN) $0.62.

Tuesday, April 10
ALCOA (AA) $0.76, Electro Scientific (ESIO) $0.20.

Wednesday, April 11
Apogee (APOG) $0.28, Bed Bath & Beyond (BBBY) $0.78, Genentech (DNA) $0.67, R-I-M (RIMM) $0.98, Ruby Tuesday (RI) $0.52, SAIC (SAI) $0.17.
March 21 FOMC Minutes at 2:00 PM
March Budget Statement from the Trasury

Thursday, April 12
Cost Plus (CPWM), Krisy Kreme (KKD) $0.04, Lam Research (LRCX) $1.06, MGIC (MTG) $1.76, Pier 1 (PIR) -$0.30, Polaris (PII) $0.32, Rite Aid (RAD) $0.02.
Weekly Jobless Claims
Export/Import Prices for March

Friday, April 13
General Electric (GE) $0.44, Infosys Tech (INFY) $0.40.
Producer Pricing Index for March
Trade Balance for February
Preliminary Sentiment from University of Michigan (April)

As a reminder, please understand that these dates and estimates may change ahead of the event.  They may have already changed.  These can change literally up to the day of the earnings.  We will not be posting changes to these even if they change.

Jon C. Ogg
April 9, 2007

Jon Ogg can be reached at jonogg@247wallst.com; he does not own securities in the companies he covers.

Google 411, No Good News For Phone Companies

Google (GOOG) has launched a 411 directory look-up service. According to Tech Crunch, it works fairly well.

The phone companies including Verizon (VZ) and AT&T (T) don’t need another online competitor to take away a nice profit center. VoIP is already killing their profitable landline service. A good 411 product could take away another nice piece of revenue.

Verizon is still at the early stages of selling its fiber to the home service in the hopes of getting TV customers away from cable. And, AT&T is even further behind.

Further and further.

Douglas A. McIntyre

Airplane Wars: Sales Vs. Delivers

Boeing (BA) and Airbus play a clever PR game. Each company announced how many planes it has sold in a quarter. And, each companies announces how many it has delivered to customer. Since some sales can be cancelled, figuring out what is going on is very difficult.

The first quarter of 2007 is a fine example. Boeing says it sold 189 planes. Airbus sold 134, but that figure could be revised.

Airbus delivered 115 planes to customers in Q1. Boeing delivered 106.

One of the two companies is doing better than the other. Right now it would appear to be Boeing. Its 787 Dreamliner is selling well, and Airbus is facing delays on completion of its flagship the A380 Super Jumbo.

But, based on recent numbers, either company could claim it is doing very well. But, then again, maybe they aren’t.

Douglas A. McIntyre

Yahoo! MP3 To Challenge Apple (AAPL) iPod

Yahoo! (YHOO) is the latest company to go after the Apple iPod. It is going to offer an MP3 player with chip and storage company Sandisk (SNDK). The product will work with Yahoo! Music and other download stores. Sandisk has had some success in the MP3 market with a share of 9%.

The new music player will work with WiFi so that customers can connect to the Yahoo! Music service using a wireless connection.

Sandisk has a similar relationship with RealNetworks (RNWK) and its music download service.

Yahoo! should not bother wasting its time. Microsoft (MSFT) has already begun to go after the iPod with its new Zune player. The early results cannot even be described as lackluster. The MP3 market has been lost to Apple (AAPL), and would-be competitors are better off expending their energy elsewhere.

Douglas A. McIntyre

Vonage: Worth More In Pieces

Last September, Vonage (VG) had a share price of about $7.25 and a market cap of $1.1 billion. The company had two million subscribers. That valued each subscriber at $550. When the company had its initial public offering, the figure was over $1,200 per subscriber. Today, the value of those subscribers is about $210 based on the company’s market cap at $550 million.

With the announcement that a court has prevented Vonage from signing up new customers because it violates certain Verizon (VZ) patents, that value per subscriber is likely to fall again. An appeals court has stayed the ruling, but that may not last for more than a few weeks.

The problems raise the question of whether Vonage shareholders would be better off if the company’s assets were sold to one of the big cable companies like Comcast (CMCSA). The cable giant might pay $700 or $800 per subscriber to get well over two million customers for its growing VoIP business. It might even get these customers to take some of its higher end cable products like video on demand.

All of this assumes that Verizon does not have patent claims against cable firms like Comcast. So far, the phone company has not moved against its rivals, but, if it does, Vonage’s subscriber based might lose more value. A blanket prohibition for selling VoIP due to Verizon patents would set the entire industry back.

But, assuming that Verizon has not sued cable companies because they do not have technologies that are covered by the phone company’s patent portfolio, Vonage is worth more sold off to a company that can use its subscriber base than it is trying to fight a losing battle to stay afloat.

Douglas A. McIntyre can be reached at douglasamcintyre@247wallst.com. He does not own securities in companies that he writes about.