Daily Archives: June 19, 2007

The National Bank of Wal-Mart (WMT): The Retailer Moves To Mortgages

MarketWatch reports that Wal-Mart will enter the mortgage and home equity loan businesses. The retailer has not been able to get a federal bank charter, largely because of fears that it would damage the community bank business. The company does offer other services including check cashing and wire payment.

But, Wal-Mart tends to service a down-scale clientele. Much of the company’s customer base is the "unbanked" or "underbanked" group of the U.S. population that has little or no access to banking services. And, that is what makes the decision seem so queer. With the current considerable problems of sub-prime lending, it is hard to imagine how a company like Wal-Mart would be able to screen credit risk better than banks and mortgage loan companies.

The tactic creates another problem. If Wal-Mart is going to manage the offering of mortgages so that it does not have the some problem that have faced other lenders recently, it will have to turn away a lot of applicants. Those customers may be miffed. If so, it is hard to imagine them coming back to buy groceries and clothing.

Douglas A. McIntyre

Jerry Yang: Worth $1.75 Billion or -$600 Million to Yahoo!????

Stock Tickers: YHOO, GOOG, MSFT, TWX, DJ, DELL

In today’s pre-market trading activity in Yahoo! (YHOO-NASDAQ), shares were up 5% and the company would have had an implied $39.5 Billion Market Cap.  At yesterday’s close the market cap $37.75 Billion, yet the stock closed down 1.7% today at $27.63 with an implied market cap of $37.13 Billion.

So as recent as early this morning the Semel resignation and appointment of Jerry Yang as CEO was worth an extra $1.75 Billion in market cap to Yahoo! stock.  But at the close today compared to yesterday’s closing price the Semel-out Yang-in trade made the stock worth close to $600 Million less.  Before you go pick that apart for exact numbers, please keep in mind that these figures were rounded for simplicity purposes.  But you can see where we are going with this.

There are some that question how effective Yang can be, some wanted to have Sue Decker in, some want Semel out entirely, some think the model needs to be altered, and some will just NEVER be happy no matter what happens.  Some even want to believe the company should have to go recapture all the lost ground given up to Google (GOOG-NASDAQ), and some want it to merge with Microsoft (MSFT-NASDAQ) or even do some deal with Time Warner’s (TWX) AOL unit.  I have even seen some that want it in a deal of sorts going after Dow Jones (DJ-NYSE) or going after Asian search and Internet players….. I am sure if I read even more and more than the 30 or 40 blurbs that I’d find even more wants.

So what gives?  Yang may be here for a year, two years, maybe even longer.  But this is still better than where the stock was just last week when it looked like Semel was trying to stay dug in.  When I think about the market cap differentials between this +$1.75 Billion and -$600 Million it almost seems silly.  Yours truly thinks the company is better off for the move, even if this turns out to be a bandage for an axe wound rather than a surgical cure. 

If you use the Dell (DELL-NASDAQ) model, which isn’t even an entirely fair comparison, you should be reminded that it too gapped up and closed lower the following day and in fact shares had slipped another 10% more within 6-weeks.  Roughly 3 months from the Dell lows, its shares are now up almost 11% from the close before the announcement that Rollins was out and Dell was coming back in.  You can’t use one comparison as a predictor for the other because these cases are not the same, but this sure looks familiar.

Jon C. Ogg
June 19, 2007

Jon Ogg can be reached at jonogg@247wallst.com; he does not own securities in the companies he covers.

Morgan Stanley Earnings Preview (June 2007)

Morgan Stanley (MS-NYSE) is expected to post earnings per share of $1.98 on revenues of $9.85 Billion.  If you compare Morgan Stanley shares to last Monday’s close before we had any of the competing earnings out of other Wall Street firms, shares were at $88.54.  That is less than 1% higher than today’s $87.80 close and almost exactly in-line with the $88.50 close yesterday.

Since Monday of last week we have seen the following brokers perform as follows:

Lehman Bros. (LEH-NYSE) $81.30 close today; $75.68 last Monday before its earnings

Bear Stearns (BSC-NYSE) $146.79 close today; $148.39 last Monday and $149.49 before its earnings.

Goldman Sachs (GS) $229.47 close today; $227.85 last Monday and $233.64 before its earnings.

Jon C. Ogg
June 19, 2007

Jon Ogg can be reached at jonogg@247wallst.com; he does not own securities in the companies he covers.

The 52-Week Low Club

Journal Register (JRC) Another newspaper company steps further down the ladder. Down to $4.90 from 52-week high of $9.67.

McClatchy (MNI) Second newspaper chain. Two for the price of one. Falls to $25.68 from 52-week high of $44.95

Verasun (VSE) High cost of corn pounding ethanol stocks. Down to $13.69 from 52-week high of $28.75.

Hovnanian (HOV) Home builder. Enough said. Down to $19.53 from 52-week high of $38.66.

American Commercial Lines (ACLI) Back on the list again. Barge operator sees weakness in spot grain market where it gets much of its traffic. Shares off to $23.34 from 52-week high of $39.88.

Douglas A. McIntyre

Airgas Raised Guidance Big (ARG)

Airgas, Inc. (ARG-NYSE) just saw shares launch at the end of the day because the company raised guidance.  The guidance wasn’t just a bit, it was by 17%: $0.61 to $0.63 EPS now expected for Q1 versus prior $0.52 to $0.54 EPS range.  The company has seen a 9% same-store-sales and good growth in both gas and hardgoods same-store sales with strong demand including manufacturing and non-residential construction sectors.

Shares are up almost 7% after having been up 3% or 4% before the ‘raised guidance.’  This signals that there is still strength above and beyond expectations throughout much of the small and mid-sized manufacturing and construction services.  Airgas sells specialty gases to just about every industry so if you want to know who their customers are the answer is ‘almost everyone.’   Shares just crossed to new 52-week highs on the news, above the old 33.40 to $45.36 range over the last 52-weeks.

Jon C. Ogg
June 19, 2007

Jon Ogg can be reached at jonogg@247wallst.com; he does not own securities in the companies he covers.

IPO Filing: Heritage-Crystal Clean, Inc. (HCCI)

A rather small company called Heritage-Crystal Clean, Inc. has filed to come public via an initial public offering. The only two underwriters listed here are William Blair & Co. and Piper Jaffray, and the stock has an implied ticker of "HCCI" on NASDAQ.

The company claims to be the second largest provider of parts cleaning services in the United States that provides containerized waste services to small and mid-sized customers.  Within the industrial and hazardous waste services market, it focuses on parts cleaning, containerized waste, used oil and vacuum services.   It also estimates that these components together represent a $5 billion market opportunity and its network consists of 48 branches to 38 states and more than 34,000 client sites. During fiscal 2006, it performed more than 250,000 parts cleaning service calls.  Its largest customer accounted for only 1.2% of sales and its top 10 customers accounted for less than 7% of sales, so it is not reliant upon any single contract and arguably not reliant upon any groups of orders that may be closely linked.

Its sales were approximately $16 Million in fiscal 2000 and have grown to $77.1 Million in the 52 weeks ending March 24, 2007.  It also posted an operating profit of $7.4 million (after a one-time gain of $0.8 million) in the 52 weeks ending March 24, 2007. Up to $14 Million of the IPO will be subsequently placed with certain holders of preferred units and related persons.

Jon C. Ogg
June 19, 2007

Jon Ogg can be reached at jonogg@247wallst.com; he does not own securities in the companies he covers.

The Slaughter House, Q2 Earnings Bleeders: Sun Microsystems (SUNW)

A recent article in The Wall Street Journal pointed out that more enterprise servers where moving to Linux. One of the loser is Sun (SUNW) and it Solaris software. Other recent trends would seem to indicate that Wall St. believes the turnaround at the server company may be short-lived.

Over the last three months, Sun’s shares have dropped almost 20%. Even a large share buy-back announcement has not helped that trend. Some investors wonder why the company has nothing better to do with $3 billion in cash than to improve EPS by retiring shares.

A Goldman Sachs analsyt who covers Sun thinks that the company will make its goal this quarter of 15%or better sequential revenue growth and a 4% margin. But, that may be optimistic. A recent Gartner survey found that Sun was losing ground to companies like IBM (IBM) in its important Unix business. Sun’s market share actually dropped from 4.4% last year to 3.7% during the first quarter.

Dell’s (DELL) recent recovery may also be bad for Sun. Dell needs to do well in its server segment as well as with PCs. Sun may be a more likely target than stronger companies like IBM and Hewlett-Packard (HPQ). Certainly HP’s improved financial guidance could be due, in part, from picking up share in the server market.

Sun has a stunning history of disappointing investors. Much of its cost cutting is behind it. The slightest miss on revenue or drop in guidance will could turn the next quarterly report into a stock market route.

Douglas A. McIntyre can be reached at douglasamcintyre@247wallst.com. He does not own securities in companies that he writes about.

General Electric’s New Multi-Year Stock Highs (GE)

General Electric Co. (GE-NYSE) is actually putting in new multi-year highs today.  All of a sudden, mega-caps are back.  This is just a couple months after more than a few ‘overly-hyperactive activists’ were wrongly questioning the value of the conglomerate and even questioning the leadership of Jeff Immelt.

This is the problem of merely focusing on short periods of time because shares are actually up quite a lot since the post-2001 and 2002 lows, actually by more than 75%.  What happened for the year and a half after September 11, 2001 is not at all the fault of General Electric nor of any other conglomerate.  We were in a recession.   On a dividend-adjusted basis it looks like shares are now up almost 90% from the lows.  I was on CNBC earlier this year critical of Citigroup’s analysis showing that a break-up of GE would be good, mainly because my thesis is that breaking up the decades of work that it has taken to get here puts the company at risk when the economy is slowing and that breaking up is a bull market strategy only.

The focus of the complaints were based upon the fact that GE’s shares were considered dead money for most of the last two years.  The problem with focusing on a time period this short is that almost any company out there will have periods like that.  What’s sad is that this was not based on any earnings misses and wasn’t based on the fact that the company was blowing it across the divisions.  It was the fact that Wall Street was only willing to pay so much for a conglomerate and Mega-Cap stocks were not in demand and were even seeing P/E compression.  In fact, earnings have been growing by what the company forecast and after the law of large numbers comes into play it gets harder and harder to deliver significant upside.  Even the dividend, now at $0.28 per quarter, has grown virtually every year and was at $0.16 per share when Immelt took the helm. 

This recent stock move should put to bed any questions of Immelt’s leadership, which is why he was noted by yours truly as one of the most entrenched corporate leaders out there.  Based upon the $38.70 stock price GE has a $398 Billion market cap and it is no secret that it takes a bit more money in and out of this stock to move the bar compared to mid-cap stocks.  The previous high for the year was $38.49, and the 52-week low was $32.06.

Jon C. Ogg
June 19, 2007

Jon Ogg can be reached at jonogg@247wallst.com; he does not own securities in the companies he covers.

Google Maintains 65% of US Search

There are numerous online measurement services out there, and frankly all of the results are different from source to source.  But these are all still looked at by all marketers and advertisers regardless of any differences.

Today, Hitwise (with 10 million samples) has released its search percentage figures in the US for the four weeks ending May 26, 2007.  It lists Google (GOOG-NASDAQ) with 65.13% of US search, although it may be worth a note that this huge number is actually down 0.13% from April 2007 and up almost 6% from May 2006..  Hitwise lists Yahoo! (YHOO-NASDAQ) search as only 20.89%, but that number is actually up 0.16% from April 2007(and down 1.06% from May 2006).  The bulk of the US search market share losses year-over-year look out of Microsoft (MSFT-NASDAQ).  IAC/Interactive’s (IACI-NASDAQ) Ask.com lost year-over-year, but managed a decent pick-up from April considering its size.

On the continued page you can read the tables here:

Read More »

Blackstone Expedites IPO Date (BX)

Blackstone Group LP (BX-NYSE) is now expecting to price its IPO on this Thursday evening for a Friday trade date, one week earlier than originally planned.  The company has apparently ended the road show on more than enough demand for its shares.  The good news is that this means all that negative publicity and all of the preemptive tax issues are not killing the stock.  This is also probably to stem all of the pre-IPO coverage around the company itself rather a key individual who keeps staying in the media.

The IPO is expected to be in the $4 Billion area raised as the company is selling roughly a 12% stake in partnership units at an indicated price of $29.00 to $31.00.  Last week we made a note that the press media giving near-Tabloid coverage to it could affect valuations and could even impact the timing.  Perhaps this will curb that notion.

Depending on how this is received, you are likely to see more private equity firms and hedge funds come public later this summer.  The only ‘recent’ IPO even close to this was the earlier IPO for Fortress Investment Group LLC (FIG-NYSE).  There are many other private equity and public investment firms that have been public for some time, and here is a list if you would like to review: American Capital Strategies (ACAS-NASDAQ), Allied Capital Corp (ALD-NYSE), Apollo Investment Corp (AINV-NASDAQ), and more.

Jon C. Ogg
June 19, 2007

Jon Ogg can be reached at jonogg@247wallst.com; he does not own securities in the companies he covers.

Expedia (EXPE): Finally, A Buy-Back That Works

Expedia (EXPE) has announced that it will buy in up to $3.5 billion of its shares. That will be about 42% of the company’s shares. The company is a spin-off of Barry Diller’s IAC/Interactive (IACI).

The company’s shares are up 17% to $29.63.

Perhaps the lesson to other companies that have not seen share price movement on disclosure of buy-backs should take a lesson. IBM (IBM) and Sun Micro (SUNW) are prime examples If you are going to make an offer, make it for most of your shares. Otherwise, don’t bother.

Douglas A. McIntyre

Gabelli Challenging the 24/7 Real Media Buyout Price?

THIS IS A DRAFT ONLY…….

The waiting period

Read More »

YouTube Goes Overseas

In an attempt to broaden its audience, Google’s (GOOG) YouTube will open local language sites in Brazil, France, Ireland, Italy, Japan, the Netherlands, Poland, Spain and the United Kingdom. According to The Wall Street Journal much of YouTube’s traffic already comes from outside the US.

The biggest question facing YouTube may be whether other, local video websites already established in these countries will be competition. While Google has a strong foothold in most large countries, in China the search engine will well behind the local competition, Baidu (BIDU). Yahoo! (YHOO) Video and AOL Video may have footholds in these countries as well.

Douglas A. McIntyre

Best Buy, Best Effort? (BBY, CC, GME)

Best Buy’s (BBY-NYSE) Q1 2008 was a bit of a disappointment, although that is somewhat par for the course as the mood was fairly sour going into the report.  The company posted $0.39 EPS on $7.927 Billion in revenues.  First Call estimates were $0.51 EPS and $7.84 Billion.  The company issued FY FEB-2008 EPS guidance $2.85 to $3.15 compared to $3.17 estimates.

The company noted that a significant contributor to the decline was the inclusion of the China business acquired last June, which carried a significantly lower gross profit rate. Domestically, the increase of lower-margin products in the revenue mix in notebook computers and gaming hardware also added to the decline. An increase in the products completing model transitions in the home theater area resulting in markdowns and lower profitability of computer transactions were also factors in the year-over-year decline in the gross profit rate.

Out of the $7.9+ Billion in revenues, the company generated $6.7 Billion in the U.S. alone.  This sets the bar even lower for Circuit City (CC-NYSE) earnings this week.  If the company is saying lower gaming hardware is hurting, it must be losing out to GameStop (GME-NYSE) because those strong gaming numbers in the sector are going somewhere.  Best Buy shares are down close to 4% in pre-market trading to $46.25; its 52-week trading range is $43.51 to $58.49.

Jon C. Ogg
June 19, 2007

Jon Ogg can be reached at jonogg@247wallst.com; he does not own securities in the companies he covers.

Pre-Market Stock News (June 19, 2007)

(ALTH) Allos Therapeutics trading down 20% after its Phase III study of Efaproxyn failed to meet primary endpoint of improvement in overall survival.
(BAY) Bayer raised guidance on Schering integration.
(BMY) Bristol-Myers: FDA Grants Priority Review for Bristol-Myers Squibb’s Investigational Oncology Treatment Ixabepilone.
(BTU) Peabody Energy was named Cramer’s favorite pick in the coal sector.
(CLRK) Color Kinetics trading up 11% at $33.00+ on $34 buyout from Philips Electronics.
(CPKI) California Pizza Kitchen trades ex-split today to reflect a 3-2 stock Split.
(CUB) Cubic received a $468 million contract to give mission support to Army readiness training center.
(DAL) Delta is considering a 125 Boeing order for Dreamliners.
(DJ) Dow Jones may get a bid from billionaire Ron Burkle.
(EXPE) Expedia buying back $3.5 Billion in stock.
(FDS) FactSet $0.52 EPS vs $0.51 estimate.
(GE) GE buying controlling stake in natural gas pipeline Regency for $603 million.
(INO) Inovio Biomedical’s selective electrochemical tumor ablation therapy demonstrated safety, tolerability, and complete responses in breast cancer study.
(LNET) LodgeNet noted positively by Cramer on Mad Money.
(MRO) Marathon Oil trades ex-split today to reflect a 2-1 stock split.
(PRGS) Progress Software $0.45 EPS vs $0.41e.
(STR) Questar trades ex-split to reflect a 2-1 stock split.
(SGMO) Sangamo BioScience reached milestones in agriculture collaboration with Dow AgroSciences.
(SIRI) SIRIUS signed Volkswagen as standard equipment on all Touareg, New Beetle, New Beetle Convertible, GTI, and GLI sales for the 2008 models.
(TASR) TASER announced foreign order for 1,375 devices.
(TSN) Tyson making product announcementthis morning.
(YHOO) Yahoo! trading up 8% after Semel stepped down as CEO and co-founder Jerry Yang came back as CEO; Semel remaining non-executive Chairman.
(ZGEN) ZymoGenetics entered a global collaboration pact with Bayer for development and commercialization of recombinant human thrombin.

Jon C. Ogg
June 19, 2007

Jon Ogg can be reached at jonogg@247wallst.com; he does not own securities in the companies he covers.

Biotech Implosion: Allos Therapeutics (ALTH)

Allos Therapeutics, Inc. (ALTH-NASDAQ) is indicated down almost 20% in thin pre-market trading after it announced that top line results from ENRICH, the Company’s pivotal Phase III study of EFAPROXYN plus whole brain radiation therapy (WBRT) in women with brain metastases originating from breast cancer. The study failed to achieve its primary endpoint of demonstrating a statistically significant improvement in overall survival in patients receiving EFAPROXYN plus WBRT, compared to patients receiving WBRT alone.  All secondary efficacy endpoints also failed to achieve statistical significance.

Based on these results, Allos intends to discontinue the development of EFAPROXYN and focus on advancing the development of PDX (Pralatrexate), its novel antifolate currently under evaluation in a pivotal Phase 2 study in patients with relapsed or refractory peripheral T-cell lymphoma (PTCL).

Allos has essentially no revenues and as of last quarter it had $75.8 million in cash and short term investments and about $6 million in total liabilities.  Before today’s drop the market cap was $370 million.  The good news is that the company is still in the running here with another product candidate and that it still has plenty of cash.  The bad news is that it is now  in a spot where it has only the hope of a one-hit wonder potentially and is still worth more than 4-times its liquidity after just blowing a Phase III trial.

Jon C. Ogg
June 19, 2007

Jon Ogg can be reached at jonogg@247wallst.com; he does not own securities in the companies he covers.

Today’s & Upcoming Stock Splits (June 19, 2007)

Stock Tickers: CPKI, MRO, STR, PVA, AGN, ESRX, GILD, OMC, YUM

TODAY (June 19, 2007)
(CPKI) California Pizza Kitchen trades ex-split today to reflect a 3-2 stock Split.
(MRO) Marathon Oil trades ex-split today to reflect a 2-1 stock split.
(STR) Questar trades ex-split to reflect a 2-1 stock split.

THIS WEEK
(PVA) Penn Viginia will trade ex-split on June 20 to reflect a 2-1 stock split.

NEXT WEEK
Allergan (AGN), Express Scripts (ESRX) and Gilead (GILD) all trade ex-split to reflect their pending 2-1 stock splits on June 25. 
Omnicom (OMC) will trade ex-split on on June 26 to reflect its pending 2-1 stock split. 
YUM! Brands (YUM) trades ex-split on June 27 to reflect its pending 2-1 stock split.

Jon C. Ogg
June 19, 2007

Jon Ogg can be reached at jonogg@247wallst.com; he does not own securities in the companies he covers.

Earlybird Analyst Calls (June 19, 2007)

ACLI cut to Hold at Deutsche Bank.
ACOR raised to Buy at B of A.
AGO cut to Underweight at JPMorgan.
ANAD started as Buy at Oppenheimer.
ANET cut to Neutral at Baird.
ATHR started as Buy at Oppenheimer.
AV cut to Mkt Perform at JMP Securities.
BAC raised to Buy at UBS.
BEAS cut to Neutral at UBS.
CHD started as Buy at Sun Trust Robinson Humphrey.
CI raised to Neutral at B of A.
EGLE started as Neutral at JPMorgan.
EPIC started as Buy at Sun Trust Robinson Humphrey.
GNK started as Overweight at JPMorgan.
GNTX raised to Buy at B of A.
KNX raised to Outperform at Wachovia.
LCC raised to Neutral at UBS.
MCHP cut to Mkt Perform at Piper Jaffray.
QMAR started as Neutral at JPMorgan.
SDXC started as Buy at Kaufman Bros.
SKH started as Buy at Jefferies.
SRE raised to Buy at Citigroup.
TZIX started as Buy at Deutsche Bank.
WERN raised to Outperform at Wachovia.
YRCW cut to Mkt Perform at Wachovia.

Jon C. Ogg
June 19, 2007

Jon Ogg can be reached at jonogg@247wallst.com; he does not own securities in the companies he covers.

Microsoft’s (MSFT) Dust Up With Linux Is About To Get Worse

According to The Wall Street Journal, open source operating system, Linux, is getting into more and more enterprise servers. Microsoft (MSFT) has been the largest supplier of software in this field for years, and Sun Microsystems (SUNW) also sells its Solaris software into the same markets. As one IT manager said: "Linux is significantly more cost-efficient."

While Linux may need further development to offer the robust features that Microsoft does, "less expensive" always has its attractions.

But, the world’s largest software company still has an ace in the hole. Microsoft has made over 200 patent claims against Linux, and, if it presses them, corporate use of the open source product could fall off. Linux, as a free software movement, may not have the capital to defend all of Microsoft’s allegations. And, that would mean that customers using the system now and in the future might have to foot the bill if Microsoft can prove that it is due royalties for its intellectual property.

Microsoft’s tactic cuts two ways. It may slow down the advances that Linux has made in the enterprise market, but if prices for the open source solution rise due to IP license fees, businesses could look at Microsoft as the cause. That could create some real tension between Redmond and some of its most important customers.

But, ultimately, it is probably Linux that will suffer. Enterprises certainly understand and may have sympathy for a firm asserting its intellectual property rights, even if everyone’s costs go up a bit.

Douglas A. McIntyre

Europe Markets 6/19/2007

European markets were moving down at 5.45 AM New York time.

The FTSE fell .2% to 6,689. British Air (BAB) was down 1.4% to 430.  GlaxoSmithKline (GSK) was down .2% to 1317. Unilever (UN) was down 1% to 1563. Vodafone (VOD) was down 1.9% to 158.9.

The DAXX was off .1% to 8,030. DaimlerChrysler (DCX) was up .2% to 68.88. SAP (SAP) was up 2.1% to 38.05.

The CAC 40 was down .1% to 6,079. Alcatel-Lucent (ALU) was up 1.3% to 10.27. ST Micro (STM) was down 1.4% to 14.35.

Data from Reuters

Douglas A. McIntyre