Daily Archives: August 1, 2007

BigBand Networks Hits Low Close Ahead Of Earnings (BBND)

On Thursday afternoon, we’ll get to see the first real quarter from BigBand Networks (NASDAQ:BBND).  The broadband network-based platform equipment maker has had a rough time of it since coming public earlier this year.  Unfortunately, this is a recent IPO and trusting consensus estimates requires faith that everyone is close and requires faith that even the estimates are accurate.  Please note that because of being skeptical and because of seeing so many crazy reports on post-IPO earnings, we give very little emphasis on earnings estimates for very new public companies and caution against any absolute estimates.

Shares fell almost 4% to $12.49 and hit a new post-IPO low close on Wednesday, even if shares did recover almost 3% off the $12.17 intraday lows.  It looks like estimates are $0.07 EPS and $55.2 million in revenues, with next quarter estimates at $0.08 EPS on $60.1 million in revenues.  Once again, please check estimates on your own as new companies can be guesswork.

The three main analysts that started coverage on the stock all started this with a positive rating, so they’ve been feeling some heat on this one.  This was also touted by Jim Cramer, even thnough he did back off the initial rosy calls he made.  If options can be trusted on a company this new, it looks like on a static basis that options traders are prepared for shares to move up to $0.90 or so in either direction.

A conference call is scheduled for tomorrow evening.  With shares off almost 50% from the post-IPO highs, this one has not bee very fun to watch.  This one is hard to have any conviction with no real history.

Jon C. Ogg
August 1, 2007

Posted on: August 1, 2007 – 6:54 pm in Earnings, IPOs, Technology Companies, , ,

Cramer Pans Financials Again, Then Talks Up Chipotle With Its CFO (CMG)

On tonight’s MAD MONEY on CNBC, Jim Cramer said despite a sweet close it isn’t time to celebrate.  In a preservation of capital strategy and cutting losses will generate gains anyway.  He thinks the market will gap up tomorrow and that is a good chance to sell.  The domino effect is many people walking away from homes, and homebuilders are not able to sell their inventory.  Some of the banks and mortgage brokers will fail over these loans and if they look cheap they are not.  The hedge funds and aggressive managers can’t borrow what they thought they could because of forced selling.  He thinks anything mortgage related should be sold into any strength tomorrow.

Jim Cramer wanted to talk about selective bull markets and said the best company he has in the food space is Chipotle Mexican Grill (NYSE:CMG).  He says this is a regional to national story that beat estimates and raised guidance.  He interviewed Chipotle’s CFO on the show:

Cramer asked about food costs being up….. costs are higher and theirs grew 100 basis points, but they have food integrity and solid contracts.  The rest of the P&L statement is very efficient.

Cramer’s concern is on the slowness of the buildout and then changing to rapid growth….. CFO said they are growing based on real estate availability and the quality of managers they can get.  Managers are coming from inside now and they can do better now than earlier.

How do they incentivize managers?  Elite managers are bonused on sales growth above expectations above plan plus they get $10K per group leader that gets turned into a manager.  As far as feeling like a chain….CFO said he doesn’t want it to feel like a chain and they want to personalize the experience.

Cramer noted that the stock hasn’t even seen upgrades after a 12% gain today on the better performance and Cramer said he thinks Chipotle will go up Thursday again.  Shares climbed nearly another 2% to yet another high, above $100.00.

Jon C. Ogg
August 1, 2007

Jon Ogg can be reached at jonogg@247wallst.com; he does not own securities in the companies he covers.

Posted on: August 1, 2007 – 5:32 pm in Cramer, Food, , ,

EA Guidance Sees Weakness From Halo 3 & Grand Theft Auto Competition (ERTS, THQI, TTWO, MSFT)

Electronic Arts Inc. (NASDAQ:ERTS) has posted results with a gross profit of $229 million, but its actual net loss was $132 million.  Its diluted EPS was -$0.42 net and -$0.22 on a non-GAAP basis on a 4% drop on revenues to a total of $395 million.  First Call estimates were -$0.34 non-GAAP and revenues were expected at $389.5 million.  The stock was down somewhat in sympathy with THQ Interactive (NASDAQ:THQI) after a lower loss but forecasts including higher spending.

Fiscal March-2008 Guidance: revenues $3.2 to $3.5 Billion, up $100 million from prior guidance and net revenue excluding impact of deferrals $3.65 to $3.85 Billion (up $50 million from prior guidance). Non-GAAP EPS $0.90-$1.20, in line with prior guidance.  Unfortunately its GAAP EPS is still a loss, even if narrower: -$0.63 to -$0.10 instead of -$0.77 to -$0.23 prior.  First Call estimates for Fiscal march-2008 are $1.14 EPS and $3.7 Billion revenues, so the mid-point is under EPS targets and somewhat in-line to a tad under the mid-point on revenues.

Next quarter guidance: $465 to $570 million revenues, but $825 to $910 million excluding impact of change in deferred net revenue.  Non-GAAP EPS targeted at $0.10 to $0.20 outside of deferrals.  First Call pegs estimates at $0.33 EPS and $960 million revenues, so it looks like that is a shortfall.

The truth is that these are the throw-away quarters for video game companies.  The companies have slower sales in this quarter so the only issue at hand is each company’s outlook.  The most important issue to watch for all videogame producers in the next couple or three months is if the mega-hit releases of Halo 3 from Microsoft (NASDAQ:MSFT) and the new Grand Theft Auto release from Take-Two Interactive (NASDAQ:TTWO).  Halo 3 comes in late September and GTA comes in October as of now, and these two releases at the last coincidental calendar timing caused available gaming dollars to migrate away from all other producers for a period of 60 to 90 days as game players dwelled on those titles.  It looks like Halo 3 and GTA spending are going to exact a toll again against the other gamers.

Here is the ‘feel good ahead’ commentary part from Warren Jenson, Chief Financial and Administrative Officer: "Looking ahead, we have a strong slate.  In the balance of the fiscal year, we plan to launch our full EA SPORTS lineup, Need for Speed Pro Street, MySims, Medal of Honor Airborne and ten new properties, including Army of Two, The Simpsons, SKATE, Boogie and Rock Band."

Shares closed down 1.1% at $48.10 in normal trading, and shares are down over 1% more in after-hours trading to about $47.50.  That is within spitting distance of the $46.14 and well under the $58.85 highs seen in the last 52-weeks.

Jon C. Ogg
August 1, 2007

Jon Ogg can be reached at jonogg@247wallst.com; he does not own securities in the companies he covers.

Posted on: August 1, 2007 – 3:42 pm in Earnings, Earnings Warning, Video Games, , , , , , , , , , , ,

Starbucks Brews Earnings Gains (SBUX)

Starbucks Corp. (NASDAQ:SBUX) has shown its earnings, and the results came in at net $0.21 EPS on revenues of $2.4 Billion.  First Call estimates were $0.21 EPS and almost $2.4 Billion in revenues.  It is also maintaining $0.87 to $0.89 EPS guidance on 20% revenues, similar to before.

Introducing 2008 targets: It sees same store sales of 3% to 7%, is targeting 18% revenue growth and targets 20% to 22% earnings growth.  Fiscal September-2008 looks like estimates are $1.06 EPS on revenues of $11.33 Billion.  That is in-line on earnings guidance but could be deemed a tad light on the revenue front depending on your mid-point of guidance and which estimate you use.  The good news is that this is not showing any newer fundamental flaws or major problems that would create real caution inside the company.  Shares are acting accordingly in initial reactions, and we’ll have to see how others interpretthose earnings and revenue growth ranges before declaring a formal vistory.

Starbucks opened a record 668 stores in the quarter as well and posted a comparable sales growth per store of 4%.  It still sees a total of 2,400 store openings this year and is now targeting 2,600 store openings in 2008.

Starbucks shares are up almost 4% in initial after-hours reactionary trading at $28.25.  If that level can hold, shares will be well above 10% off of the recent lows and may give investors a reason to think the worst has been seen or that most of the bad news has been priced in.  We’ll see if that holds, but that’s the initial reaction.

Jon C. Ogg
August 1, 2007

Jon Ogg can be reached at jonogg@247wallst.com; he does not own securities in the companies he covers.

Posted on: August 1, 2007 – 3:22 pm in Earnings, Food, , ,

Cramer Still Vacant on Financials, For Obvious Reasons

On today’s STOP TRADING on CNBC, Jim Cramer discussed the myriad of financial-related stocks and anything tied to housing as an area he’d still stay away from.  In fact he said he’d sell most of these on any strength until this fallout from the derivative mess is behind us.  On MasterCard (NYSE:MA), Cramer said that down $18.00 feels like an overreaction, but even then he didn’t seem overly confident and probably would want to stay away.

Unfortunately, this financial sector malaise has created a dirth of issues, and it has made us make entire changes to our BAIT SHOP methodology and put many ’stock picks’ for newsletter subscribers on hold.  Sure, as these get cheaper they get more attractive.  But I’ve gone through this before, and this is all happening ahead of any serious economic slowdown.  It is too hard to fight the tape right now and it will be hard calling any exact bottom on almost any of these financial stocks.  Today on CNBC where Charlie Gasparino even noted that Bear Stearns is getting to a level that it could in theory be thought of as a buyout candidate, but right now until the dust settles it is unlikely that any such offer would be made by anyone.  I even noted it a month ago as the potential candidate in the sector that ‘could’ get a buy, but all that hidden value inside the company has turned into ‘hidden liability’ in the recent weeks.  The lawsuits haven’t even really started and the waves of downward earnings estimates haven’t come from Wall Street itself.  Until that happens, this tape is just too hard to fight regardless of fairly recent and longer-term opinions.

Jon C. Ogg
August 1, 2007

Jon Ogg can be reached at jonogg@247wallst.com; he does not own securities in the companies he covers.

Posted on: August 1, 2007 – 2:12 pm in Banking, Cramer, Financial Stocks, , ,

GM (GM) Sales Get Hammered

GM’s (GM) US sales fell 22% during July to 320,935. Car sales fell 26% and light trucks were off by 19%.

At about the same time that GM announced its results Ford (F) said that it would reassess its estimates for US car sales for the 2007 year. Speaking about its current estimates, a Ford executive told Reuters: "we are certainly going to reassess this once we get the final data for the July sales."

For some reason GM "backed its expected third-quarter production of 1.075 million vehicles", according to MarketWatch. .It is difficult to imagine how the company will pull that off with its present slide in addition to higher oil prices and a poor housing market.

Douglas A. McIntyre

Posted on: August 1, 2007 – 1:11 pm in Uncategorized, ,

Starbucks, Waiting For Earnings (SBUX, WFMI, MCD)

Starbucks Corp. (NASDAQ:SBUX) has seen its stock under pressure since the end of 2006.  Tonight it reports earnings, and First Call estimates are $0.21 EPS and almost $2.4 Billion in revenues.  The next quarter estimates are $0.21 EPS and $2.44 Billion in revenues, and next quarter marks the fiscal 2007-end.  Fiscal September-2008 looks like estimates are $1.06 EPS on revenues of $11.33 Billion, although we would caution that the range is wider than closer earnings because of 15-months outlook.

We already discussed how the company has a long way to go before itcan fix its woes.  Upon some store revisits it seems the company is trying, and we have already been given notice of some price hikes that are going to be passed on to yours truly and you.  The larger food initiative that is being rolled out on top of last year’s rollout is still in the infancy, so perhaps we’ll get a glimpse of the company’s thoughts there.  The company has been under pressure from McDonalds (NYSE:MCD) and faces other pressure from Dunkin and others.  Here was our list of suggestions in May for the company to follow after we did a series of store evaluations in various locations.

What is interesting is if we take this into the consumer-meets-investor mindset.  Last night Whole Foods (NASDAQ:WFMI) posted stronger than expected or not as weak of results, and shares are up big today as a result.  Sure these comapnies are in different segments, but what they have in common is a loyal client base AND large earnings and valuation multiples compared to their competitors.  A 30+ P/E ratio used to be a 40+ P/E ratio for the longest time.  The question is what P/E multiple can victory be declared for a fair value.  We ran a piece wondering if shares had come close to a bottom at the end of June, and that is still an outstanding item. 

It’s quite possible that this multiple may need to compress further, but using the forward 2008 multiple it trades at an estimated 25.1 forward P/E.  Some will still deem this high if the market continues its weakness and volatility, but with earnings per share growth at more than 20% it becomes and argument over who will pay what for that growth.  If you wanted to use a ‘forward’  PEG ratio of 1.25 this becomes cheaper, with the flaw being that this is trying to fast-forward a year.  Based on that, this could still face more pressure as investors and traders fight over what the true value is.  But with the 52-week high of $40.00 and the curent $26.60 price it just looks and feels like the worst could be behind it.  One earnings warning or major hiccup will blow holes in that theory, and that always has to be kept in mind. 

Starbucks also saw its most recent short interest rise from 25.8 million shares in June to almost 27.4 million shares in July.  Options traders based on a static quote mid-day appear to be braced for a price move of just over 2.2% in either direction, although that is arguable with shares being stuck between strike prices.  The average analyst price target is still $35.00 or higher.

Jon C. Ogg
August 1, 2007

Jon Ogg can be reached at jonogg@247wallst.com; he does not own securities in the companies he covers.

Posted on: August 1, 2007 – 1:11 pm in Earnings, Food, , , , ,

Motorola (MOT) Hits New Low As Nokia (NOK) Near 100 Million Unit Quarter

Motorola (MOT) hit a new 52-week low today. And, at $16.73, it is no wonder. Nokia (NOK), the US company’s larger rival, is expected to say that it sold nearly 100 million handsets last quarter, well over twice what Motorola sold. According to MarketWatch, Nokia’s global market share could hit 39% for the quarter.

Word out of Korea is that Samsung, which is neck-and-neck with Motorola for second place in global handsets sales is reorganizing its business with the intention of " finding new sources of revenue, realigning businesses, cutting costs", according to Dow Jones Newswires.

Sounds like the industry is kicking Motorola while it is down.

Douglas A. McIntyre

Posted on: August 1, 2007 – 12:59 pm in Uncategorized, ,

Can Napster Become Profitable? (NAPS)

Napster Inc. (NASDAQ:NAPS) is set to report earnings after the close, and First Call pegs estimates for another loss at -$0.15 EPS and just under $32.5 million in revenues.  If the company offers guidance it is expected to post -$0.15 and $33.3 million revenues next quarter.

Now what is interesting here is that Napster has been deemed not quite on life support or in limbo, but the financial situation is a peculiar one.  The company is expected to post wide losses for fiscal March-2008 and for fiscal March-2009.  The revenues for each year respectively are $140.6 million and $165 million.

As of last quarter the company has $66.4 million in cash and equivalents.  The good news is that its entire liabilities were only $37 million but the company has been bleeding out over $7 million  (last quarter) and over $9 million in each of the two prior quarters.  Its total cash flow from operations was over $3 million last quarter. 

Here is the good news, at the current rate the company can sustain itself for several years without hitting the cash trough.  The bad news is that if it loses any key relationships then it has some serious decisions to make.  There has not been a peep from the 2006 hopes of any merger, and the company has not really been able to capitalize on being potentially the top iTunes competitor out there. 

With the contract agreements already in place there has to be some value to the online music database, but the question is more "what is that price?" than a current answer has shown.  The company has a $128 million market cap, and with shares at $2.76 it is closer to the bottom of its $2.55 to $4.92 trading range over the last 52-weeks.

Jon C. Ogg
August 1, 2007

Jon Ogg can be reached at jonogg@247wallst.com; he does not own securities in the companies he covers.

Posted on: August 1, 2007 – 12:37 pm in Earnings, Internet, Media, , ,

At Least Toyota’s (TM) Sales Fall, Too

Sales of Toyota (TM) vehicles fell over 7% to 224,058 in the US during July.

Ford (F) and Chrysler (DCX) had significant drop-offs in unit sales last month.

The Japanese car maket said that weakness in the housing market hurt its results. If so, the company and its US competitors could be in for a long period of declining sales.

Douglas A. McIntyre

Posted on: August 1, 2007 – 12:30 pm in Uncategorized, , ,

Amazon (AMZN) To Compete With PayPal

A report at TechCrunch indicates that Amazon (AMZN) will launch on online payment service to compete with Ebay (EBAY) PayPal and Google (GOOG) Checkout. TechCrunch writes users will be "redirected to Amazon’s servers to complete the payment and then returned to the original site."

Amazon’s size in the e-commerce market makes the report believable. It ranks seventh among US internet sites in terms of unique visitors with 53.3 million in June, just behind Ebay’s 81.2 million uniques.

Google’s Checkout has not been able to take much share from Ebay, but Google is obviously not primarily an e-commerce site. Amazon is and its has relationships to provide infrastructure to a number of other web properties. It could market the service to these clients as well as its own retail customers. That makes it a real threat to PayPal.

Douglas A. McIntyre

Posted on: August 1, 2007 – 12:16 pm in Uncategorized, , ,

Apple (AAPL): A 3G iPhone?

Reports circulating on Wall St. indicate that Apple (AAPL) may introduce new versions of its iPhone. TheStreet.com reports that  "RBC analyst Mike Abramsky issued a note Tuesday that attempted to draw a roadmap on where the popular iPhone is headed next." The analyst had conversations with an executive inside Apple.

The two models that may come out next would be a less expensive versions of the current phone and a model that works on 3G network.

The 3G version would be a big deal. A number of the criticisms of the handset center around the fact that it works on AT&T’s (T) slower network and that the product will not be popular in Europe and Asia where fast broadband networks are a critical part of the marketing of cell phones.

Without a 3G product, Apple is unlikely to get sales of the phone to 10 million a year. With it, sales could go well beyond that and the product would have a clear path to being a global success.

Douglas A. McIntyre

Read More »

Posted on: August 1, 2007 – 12:01 pm in Uncategorized, , , ,

EMC’s VMware IPO Date & Terms (EMC, VMW, INTC, CSCO)

The upcoming partial IPO of VMware (NYSE:VMW) from EMC Corp. (NYSE:EMC) has been one of great interest, which almost goes without saying.  Terms are now set and the IPO roadshow has begun.  As previously noted, this one has garnered investment from Intel (NASDAQ:INTC) last month, and more recently has garnered an investment from Cisco Systems (NASDAQ:CSCO) on July 27.  We have also noted where Intel and others also have an investment in a relatively free competitor named VirtualIron ("virtual-iron").

The final pre-IPO range is for 33 million shares of class A common stock at an expected price range of $23.00 to $25.00.   That price can change ahead of the IPO and is not set in stone.  Book runners are Citigroup, J.P.Morgan, and Lehman; co-managers are listed as Credit Suisse, Merrill Lynch, and Deutsche Bank.  After the offering EMC will own 26.5 million shares of Class A common stock but will own all 300 million shares of the Class B common stock, representing approximately 87% of the outstanding shares.  The rights of A & B shares are identical, except when it comes to who gets the final say: Class B shares have 10 votes, or then-times the 1 vote per share of class A common stock.

The prospectus is also out, and what is expected is that the partial IPO spin-off by EMC Corp (NYSE:EMC) will price on or around August 13, 2007 and trading will begin the following day. We had an assumed first full week in August earlier in July, so these dates are pretty close. The roadshow from Diane Greene, President & CEO, of VMware can be seen at the link here.

We’ll be sending out a full report to subscribers a day or two out from the formal IPO launch.  As a reminder, this is really being only partially spun-off by EMC and is in a sense no different than a tracking stock that will give an implied value monetization to the unit.  This will be a controlled entity and EMC shareholders as of now will not receive any shares of VMware from EMC.  That may change down the road of course, although no such indications have been telegraphed.

We’ll probably be following up with a couple more notes if any developments or changes occur between now and the IPO launch.

Jon C. Ogg
August 1, 2007

Jon Ogg can be reached at jonogg@247wallst.com; he does not own securities in the companies he covers.

Posted on: August 1, 2007 – 11:34 am in IPOs, Software, Technology Companies, , , , , ,

Chrysler’s (DCX) Poor Showing

Chrysler (DCX) had a sales drop 8% to 137,728. Mercedes sales fell 14%

Maybe Cerberus will ask for a better price.

Douglas A McIntyre

Posted on: August 1, 2007 – 11:28 am in Uncategorized,

Ford (F) Gets Gored

July sales for Ford (F) could not have been much worse. Total vehicles sold in the the US fell 19% to 195,245. Truck sales were off 11% to 135,157. Car sales plunged 33% to 60,088.

Bright spots were crossover utility vehicles which rose 40%.

But, sales at Mercury were off by 35% and Jaguar was hammered, down 43%.

Sales at Rover were driven by its new entry level car, the LR2. The division had an overall increase of 18%.

How Ford can sell Jaguar to a new owner becomes more and more of a mystery.

Ford’s shares are off 1.3% on the news

Douglas A. McIntyre

Posted on: August 1, 2007 – 11:19 am in Uncategorized,

Valero Energy Corp. Mixed Reaction (VLO)

Valero Energy Corp. (NYSE:VLO) posted earnings after yesterday’s close.  Profits came in at an all-time high on high oil prices.  The refiner’s net income was over $2.2 Billion with an EPS report of $3.89.  Revenues were lower than the prior year at $24.2 Billion, but that is reflective of refineries being partially closed and from a refinery sale.  The First Call estimate had consensus earnings estimates at $3.76.

Some refinery repairs are ongoing and it is already expected that most refiners aren’t able to operate at 100% capacity right now.  The buybacks continue in the stock as well, with $2 Billion earmarked for share stability and lowering some of its outstanding shares.  Valero’s earnings leave quite a bit of room for improvement in its dividend, particularly if it wants to differentiate itself from an industry that is stingy on using profits to pay out income in the form of dividends.

The research note that stood out the most today, at least so far, was from Goldman Sachs.  The brokerage firm noted that investors should use this pullback as an opportunity to add shares as it looks inexpensive on a historical basis, despite the fact that Goldman had to trim this year EPS estimates from $12.25 down to $10.00 and it trimmed next year EPS targets from $12.50 to $12.00.  If those estimates hold true, the refining giant trades at a mere 6.5-times forward EPS targets and only about 5.4-times next year EPS targets. 

Even if high prices are or aren’t sustainable quite at the current record-high prices, those multiples are pretty hard to argue against for investors seeking value and upside in the energy markets.  Goldman Sachs sees the potential for more than a 50% gain to its target of $105.00 over the next 12-months.

Valero opened slightly to the downside, and shares are now down over 2.5% to $65.20.   Over the last 52-weeks, its shares have traded as low as $46.84 and as high as $78.68.

Jon C. Ogg
August 1, 2007

Jon Ogg can be reached at jonogg@247wallst.com; he does not own securities in the companies he covers.

Posted on: August 1, 2007 – 9:29 am in Earnings, Oil & Gas, , ,

American Home Mortgage Carnage Continues in Mortgage Land (AHM, BSC, LEND, NLY, CHC, TMA)

American Home Mortgage Corp. (NYSE:AHM) shares traded over 30 million shares yesterday after being halted for a day and a half.  It is likely that the sub-Saharan tribal residents know of the company’s woes by now and the story has been well exposed.  This was somewhere around an 85% drop yesterday with shares closing down at $1.04 on the day.

This morning, shares are back to $1.01, but it appears that shares traded as high as $1.33 on the day.  There are many who now believe that the margin calls and inverted liquidity crunching its books will implode the company.  It is trying to secure financing, and that will be up to you to decide if they can secure it or not.  We have seen roughly 6 million shares trade so far in the first 15 minutes of trading and it is expected that this will be one of the most active stocks on the day.

As always in near-implosion names, beware the rumor mill as chat room investors talk shares both up and down on no news out of the company.  Other mortgage names are seeing pressure as well after Bear Stearns (NYSE:BSC) is reportedly having another fund write-off.  Accredited Home Lenders (NASDAQ:LEND) are down over 4% today; Annaly Capital Management (NYSE:NLY) is down 1.1%, Thornburg Mortgage Inc. (NYSE:TMA) is down roughly 6%, and Centerline (NYSE:CHC) is down nearly 6%.

Jon C. Ogg
August 1, 2007

Jon Ogg can be reached at jonogg@247wallst.com; he does not own securities in the companies he covers.

Posted on: August 1, 2007 – 8:53 am in Financial Stocks, , , , , , ,

GPS Stocks Cruising Up Wall Street & Main Street (GRMN, NVT, TRMB, SIRF)

NAVTEQ  Corp. (NYSE:NVT) is seeing its shares trade up over 10% on strong orders that exceeded estimates and guidance that equally exceeded estimates.  This puts shares within striking distance of highs.

Sector leader Garmin Ltd. (NASDAQ:GRMN) shares are trading up 9% pre-market on results that mirrored those of NAVTEQ.  Earnings rose a sharp 74% with EPS coming in at $0.98 versus a $0.74 estimate.The company raised 2007 guidance on EPS to $3.15 EPS or higher, above the $2.90 estimate from First Call.  Shares are trading at new highs pre-market.

The smaller player in the group is Trimble Navigation Ltd. (NASDAQ:TRMB), is seeing shares indicated up over 3% pre-market on a 23% profit rise.  The company sees EPR at $0.26 to $0.28 and revenues of $294 to $299 million, compared to estimates of $0.26 EPS and under $294 million in revenues. Trimble shares are going to be within a few percent of that $35.60 high.

The only loser in the group is the chip maker for GPS systems, SiRF Technology (NASDAQ:SIRF).  It shares were hampered by what may be as little as one large order or a couple orders still pending and not completed, but nonetheless it posted light revenues and that won’t cut it.  Shares are trading down over 8% pre-market.  This drop puts shares only about $3.00 above the $18.20 low seen in the last 52-weeks.

Here was the full earnings preview for the sector yesterday ahead of the earnings onslaught.

Jon C. Ogg
August 1, 2007

Jon Ogg can be reached at jonogg@247wallst.com; he does not own securities in the companies he covers.

Posted on: August 1, 2007 – 8:30 am in Earnings, Transports, , , , , , , ,

Analysts To Blackstone’s Rescue (BX)

Blackstone Group, L.P. is seeing its shares, well units, trading up almost 2% pre-market on a day when DJIA futures have traded down over 100 points.  The catalyst was the end of the broker quiet period, which allows analysts in the underwriting group to initiate coverage of the company.

Despite the fall-off in shares since its IPO, the analyst calls seen so far today are mostly positive.  Banc of America, Citigroup, and Deutsche Bank have all started the private equity firm with BUY ratings.  Lehman and Morgan Stanley both initiated coverage with an Overweight rating.  Wachovia initiated coverage with a Market Perform rating and a fair value between $25 to $26.  That translates so far to essentially "5 Buys and 1 Hold" out of the coverage group.

There are certainly more analyst calls that have been made, and we’ll follow up on these as they come in.   The end of the quiet period may have been one of the stabilizing factors for the stock.  The credit markets haven’t loosened up their tight concerns in lending funds to private equity firms for what have become true LBO’s and it doesn’t take much to realize the markets have been weak for the last week and a half.  Shares bottomed out last Thursday under $24.00 at $23.27 and are now at $24.42.  Despite a poor performance since its IPO, this has been one of the standout gainers or stabile names out there.  That is even more impressive when you consider the financial sector of late.  Stay tuned as more analyst calls come in.

Jon C. Ogg
August 1, 2007

Jon Ogg can be reached at jonogg@247wallst.com; he does not own securities in the companies he covers.

Posted on: August 1, 2007 – 8:06 am in Analyst Calls, Financial Stocks, IPOs, Pre-Market Activity, Private Equity, , , , , ,

Pre-Market Stock News (August 1, 2007)

(BSC) BearStearns trading lower on other reports of a hedge fund write-off.
(BWLD) Buffalo Wild Wings trading down 11% after earnings and guidance failed to keep up with recent performance.
(BX) Blackstone trading up over 2% as analysts initiated covereage.
(BYD) Boyd Gaming $0.45 EPS vs $0.47 est.
(CI) CIGNA $0.96 EPS vs $0.88 est.
(CME) Chicago Mercantile Exchange started a self-tender for up to6.25M shares.
(CMG) Chipotle trading up over 5% after beating earnings estimates.
(COCO) Corinthian Colleges guides EPS to $0.03 vs. $0.12 est.
(D) Dominion Resources $$0.89 EPs vs $0.87 est.
(DJ) Dow Jones finally agreed to a $5 Billion buyout from News Corp.
(DVN) Devon Energy $1.89 EPS vs $1.46 est.
(DWSN) Dawson Geophysical $0.99 EPS vs $0.76 est.
(ENDP) Endo Pharma $0.48 EPS vs $0.39 est.
(FCL) Foundation Coal $0.27 EPS vs $0.27 est.
(GRMN) Garmin Ltd. trading up 6% after beating earnings.
(HGSI) Human Genome Sciences -$0.38 EPS vs -$0.41 est.
(IOMI) Iomai vaccine showed statistically significant protection in Phase II studies against travelers diarrhea.  Good hint: Don’t drink the water!
(IRM) Iron Mountain $0.19 EPS vs $0.17 est.
(JNY) Jones Apparel $0.17 EPS vs $0.31 est.; unsure if comparable.
(KFT) Kraft Foods $0.50 EPS vs $0.47 est.
(LAZ) Lazard $0.52 EPS vs $0.50 est.
(LFUS) LittleFuse $0.40 EPS vs $0.41 est.
(MA) MasterCard $1.43 EPS bvs $1.34 est.
(MCO) Moody’s $0.76 EPS vs $0.70 est; announced a $2 Billion stock buyback program.
(MKTX) Marketaxess $0.10 EPS vs $0.08 est.
(MSO) Martha Stewart $0.09 EPS vs $0.08 est.; but guidance looks lite.
(NBL) Noble Energy $1.21 EPS vs $1.18 est.
(NVT) NAVTEQ traded up 7% after beating estimates and guiding higher.
(OMX) Office Max $0.35 EPS vs $0.32 est.
(PH) Parker Hannifin $1.84 EPS vs $1.78 est.
(PKD) Parker Drilling $0.20 EPS vs $0.20 estimate.
(Q) Qwest $0.13 EPS on revenues of $3.46 billion versus estimates of $0.15; completed half of its $2 Billion share buyback plan.
(RIG) Transocean $1.84 EPS vs $1.71 est.
(SIRF) SiRF traded down 11% after light revenues.
(SSYS) Stratasys $0.35 EPS vs $0.33 est.
(TRW) TRW Automotive $1.02 EPS vs $0.80 est.
(TWX) Time Warner Inc. $0.22 EPS vs $0.21 estimate.
(VC) Visteon $-$0.52 EPS vs -$0.51 est.
(WFMI) Whole Foods trading up 6% after beating earnings expectations.
(WYN) Wyndham Worldwide $0.49 EPS vs $0.46 est.

Jon C. Ogg
August 1, 2007

Jon Ogg can be reached at jonogg@247wallst.com; he does not own securities in the companies he covers.

Posted on: August 1, 2007 – 7:40 am in Pre-Market Activity