Daily Archives: March 10, 2008

Cramer Hunts For Safe Harbor in a Storm: Genentech (DNA, GILD)

On tonight’s Mad Money on CNBC, Jim Cramer said he’s officially going "cautious" and noted that you can’t just start recommending stocks in the current market.  He noted that we haven’t even seen a run on the bank, and that was on the way.  As one defensive play Cramer did note that shares of Genentech (NYSE: DNA) might at least offer some safety as biotechs have often been holding up.  His catalyst was the upcoming analyst meeting this week where he thinks the estimates will climb up.  Cramer also noted that Gilead Sciences, Inc. (NASDAQ: GILD) has been one of the better performers, but noted Genentech being cheaper and having more upside.

As Genentech has been getting more expanded uses, that may be the case.  He’s tried getting behind this one before, as have many.  More than a year ago, Cramer called for Genentech to have a base case of $104.00 and an upside case of $140.00.  That was back at expectations for much higher P/E ratios in drug stocks and biotech stocks.  Back then shares were north of $85.00.  At the first part of 2008 shares were in the high-$60s, and now they sit just under $80.00.

The good news here is that the stock has finally worked itself out of that major downtrend that it saw twice rather than once.  That doesn’t mean it won’t go back down, but at least the sellers aren’t just leaning on it because it’s weak and they can take advantage of it.  The bad news is that the call is on the heels of what looks to be overbought territory that might still need to settle down a bit.  Rodman & Renshaw just raised this one last month.

Jon C. Ogg
March 10, 2008

IPO FILING: Eyeblaster, Inc. (EYEB)

Eyeblaster, Inc. has filed a registration statement with the SEC for a proposed initial public offering of its common stock. Eyeblaster plans to list up to $115 million in stock ($100 million before the overallotment) on the NASDAQ Stock Market under the ticker "EYEB".

Lehman Brothers, Inc. and Deutsche Bank Securities Inc. are the two brokers listed as joint bookrunners; co-managers are listed as UBS and Pacific Crest
Securities.

Eyeblaster is an independent provider of online campaign management solutions and services to advertising agencies and advertisers across digital media channels.  More specifically, it targets online, mobile and in-game, and a variety of formats, including rich media, in-stream video, display and search.

In 2007, it listed nearly 7,000 brand advertisers using roughly 2,500 media agencies and creative shops across over 2,500 web publishers in more than 40 countries globally.  The growth has been from a customer base of 245 in 2002 to 979 in 2007.  Revenues for 2007 were $44.7 million, up from $27.7 million in 2006.

Jon C. Ogg
March 10, 2008

So Far, CMGI Passes Earnings Test (CMGI)

CMGI, Inc. (NASDAQ: CMGI) shares are trading up slightly in after-hours trading  after earnings.  The supply chain manager and internet incubator posted a 14.4% drop in revenues to $278.0 million, but gross margins improved to 14.0% compared with 12.5% in the prior year period.  It also posted a 23.7% drop in operating income of $8.6 million.  Its net income was down 22.5% to $0.58 EPS on $27.8 million.

This one tends to operate on a pattern of its own because the targets for earnings and revenues are few and far between, but we did give a full earnings preview here.  As far as guidance, it continues to expect revenue of $1.10 billion to $1.15 billion and operating income to be about 2.0% to 2.5% of revenue in fiscal 2008.

While CEO Joe Lawler was a bit cautious in tone, he did note, "…….The challenging economic environment requires lower cost supply chains, faster time to market and swifter response to promotions and liquidations to reduce excess inventory. These factors play to the strengths of our business model and are contributing to our growing sales pipeline. Based on the strength of that pipeline, we are maintaining our full year financial guidance.”

As of January 31, CMGI’s working capital of $320.4 million comprised of cash and equivalents of $265.2 million. During the quarter, CMGI repurchased approximately 507,000 shares on the open market for about $6.0 million.  It has spent roughly $14 million of its $50 million share buyback plan. 

CMGI closed down 4% at $10.62 in regular trading, and shares are up 3% at $10.95 in after-hours trading.  The company’s market cap at the close was $520 million at the close.

Jon C. Ogg
March 10, 2008

Market So Bad, Even Ex-Spitzer Target Stocks Close Much Lower (NYSE, AIG, JNS, MMC, MER)

By now you have heard news of New York Governor Eliot Spitzer’s involvement in a prostitution ring.  So much for crime and ethics fighters being immune from temptation.  But what we wanted to see was if this helped some of the old Eliot Spitzer target company, and shockingly this news did not even help these companies close in positive territory or even lend much aid from a bear bite.

Our apologies for not being able to include the full list because it was much more extensive than this.  Below is how these major former target companies closed, and they all closed down with a weak market: 

  • NYSE Euronext (NYSE: NYX) wasn’t a target itself, but Dick Grasso was over the pay package.  Shares closed down some 5% at $57.40, a new 52-week low and under the old $59.40 to $101.00 trading range.
  • American International Group (NYSE: AIG) just probably saw the odds of an increased quasi-return of Hank Greenberg, who has already expressed an interest in getting back in. AIG shares closed down over 2% at $41.95, also under the 52-week trading range of $42.14 to $72.97.
  • Marsh & McLennan (NYSE: MMC) fell under the insurance rebating issues, and it has never really recovered.  Marsh-Mac shares closed down 1.75% at $24.66, although that is not a 52-week low.
  • Janus (NYSE: JNS) was part of the market timing scandal brought on by Spitzer.  Shares closed down 1% at $21.88, also not a 52-week low.
  • Merrill Lynch (NYSE: MER) was part of the Wall Street research settlement, although that was a much larger group of companies than many other industry complaints.  Merrill Lynch shares closed down 5% at $42.84, under its 52-week trading range of $44.30 to $95.00.

Spitzer was not a great loved brother on Wall Street despite his actions cleaning up many business practices in various industries.  A better market or a decent day may have helped these stocks close higher.  This is just more reminder that we are in a bear market. 
Jon C. Ogg
March 10, 2008

The 52-Week Low Club (LVLT)(FNM)(C)(LEH)

Lehman (NYSE: LEH) hit by concerns about huge Q1 write-offs. Falls to $42.77 from 52-week high of $82.05.

Citigroup (NYSE: C) sells off because bank may have to raise more money. Down to $19.74 from 52-week high of $55.55.

Level 3 (NASDAQ: LVLT) loses its president, raises issues about next quarter. Sells down to $1.87 from 52-week high of $6.46.

Fannie Mae (NYSE: FNM) drops on negative comments in Barron’s. Sells off $18.50 from 52-week high of $70.57.

Thornburg Mortgage (NYSE: TMA) Capital calls raise concerns about bankruptcy. Goes down to $.75 from 52-week high of $28.40.

Keryx Biopharmaceuticals (NASDAQ: KERX) Big clinical trial falls short. Shares trade off to $.60 from 52-week high of $11.70.

Douglas A. McIntyre

Biotech Monday (CRIS, CGRB, EXEL, MNKD, PDLI, SQNM, TCM)

Curis Inc. (NASDAQ: CRIS) shares down 18% after development partner Wyeth terminated their contract that focused on cancer treatment developments. Shares are down $0.29 to $1.14. The 52 week range is $0.86 to $2.35.

Cougar Biotechnology, Inc. (NASDAQ: CGRB) down 23% to $17.75.

Exelixis (NASDAQ: EXEL) hit a new 5 year low this morning. Its down 7% to $5.38 on a 52 week low of $5.67 to $12.77.  No special reason for the downturn aside from a market wide lack of interest in developmental-stage drugs.

MannKind Corp. (NASDAQ: MNKD) downgrades and fears of ending inhaled insulin development lead to a new all-time low. Shares are down 18% at $4.52 in mid-day trading. The 52 week range is $5.25 to $15.99.

PDL BioPharma (NASDAQ: PDLI) fell another 8% after the recent drops after it canceled its sale last week.  Its shares hit lows of $10.12, another 52-week low.

Sequenom Inc. (NASDAQ: SQNM) down 17% on no new news. Shares are trading at  $5.47  with a  52 week range of $2.93 to $11.63.

Tongjitang Chinese Medicines Co. (NYSE: TCM) shares are up over 33% to $8.83 in mid-day trading on news that the CEO and another board director submitted a proposal to acquire all outstanding shares and take the company private. The 52 week range is $6.57 to $12.88.

Rachel Lopez
March 10, 2008

Citigroup, Now A Teenager (C)

Shares of Citigroup (NYSE: C) have done what some would have thought impossible.  Last year that $40.00 floor was the imaginary hurdle, then $30.00 became the last hurdle.  But today the stock managed to break the $20.00 barrier and is currently trading at $19.85.

We recently noted that Citigroup could see $16.00 or $15.00in the Spring after reports of it needing more money.  Imagine how badthis would be in one day if the banks and guarantors all came cleanwith their news at once.

Oppenheimer’s Meredith Whitney made the most bearish public call on Wall Street in 2007, which ultimately brought her mush fire before praise.  She even recently noted the chance of it seeing $15.00 on write-down exposure.  Meanwhile, long standing banking analyst and market pundit Dick Bove of Punk Ziegel has started defending shares of Citi in recent weeks to months thinking enough is enough.  So far she is winning, but who knows…. They both may end up being right when it is all said and done.

Jon C. Ogg
March 10, 2008

CMGI Braces For Earnings (CMGI, SFE)

Today we’ll get to see earnings out of CMGI Inc. (NASDAQ: CMGI).  First and foremost, we’d note that the actual estimates are a guide and that this one almost seems like it acts on its own and any "formal estimates" are not as set in stone as with larger companies.

The estimates for the supply chain management company and internet incubator from First Call are $0.21 EPS on $315 million in revenues, although we would caution that there are only two estimates listed.  Next quarter estimates are $0.12 EPS on $282.1 million in revenues. Estimates for fiscal July-2008 are $0.60 EPS on $1.14 billion in revenues.

We’ve only seen one target at $22.00 and that is an old one.  CMGI does have a significant short interest of $4.022 million shares as of the end of February, up slightly from the prior report.            

CMGI’s 52-week trading range is $9.66 to $26.00, although we would note that this is after a reverse-split adjustment so it isn’t quite as representative as it sounds.

The company did recently make a new acquisition just last month.

Last quarter, CMGI said it would focus on gross margins with expanded offerings and lowering of infrastructure costs.  Its goal was to reach 12% to 14% margins with cost cuts.  One other issue that was noted was that the company expects to continue to derive the vast majority of operating revenue from sales to a small number of key clients.

We routinely have CMGI screened for our "10 Stocks Under $10" newsletter, although there hasn’t been a call there on this one of late because of price constraints.  A perceived competitor is Safeguard Scientifics (NYSE: SFE), and that was just added to the newsletter list this weekend.

Jon C. Ogg
March 10, 2008

SPAC IPO FILING: PJSC Acquisition Corp.

PJSC Acquisition Corp. is another SPAC, or special purpose acquisition corporation, that has submitted an IPO filing to come public. The filing shows a target of $150 million from 15 million units at the usual $10.00 per unit. Each unit includes one share of common stock and one warrant with a strike price of $7.50. The proposed maximum aggregate amount raised in securities is listed as $301,875,000. The sole book-running manager is Banc of America Securities. Usually, SPAC IPO’s apply to list on the American Stock Exchange; however, likely due to recent NYSE and NASDAQ moves that could allow SPACs to trade on their exchanges, the IPO did not specify an exchange. It did specify the symbol, “U” and a 24 month deadline to complete a transaction. 

PJSC Acquisition Corp. intends to focus on North American retail, apparel and consumer goods, distribution, and healthcare although they are not limited to any particular industry. PJSC will utilize the talent, networks, and resources of Peter J. Solomon Company, an independent investment bank . To be specific, PJSC Acquisition Corp’s senior management is the senior management of Peter J. Solomon Company, including Peter J. Solomon and Kenneth Berliner. The bank has advised in over 100 completed transaction since 2002.

Rachel Lopez
March 10, 2008

Metal Commodity Price To Eat Car Company Margins, If They Had Any

Ford (NYSE: F) is trading near its 52-week low at $5.75. GM (NYSE: GM) came within a dime of its nadir today, trading at $21.43. These figures are not very different from where the shares traded two years ago when ratings agencies said there was some real chance of both companies going into bankruptcy.

Adding to weak sales in the US due to the recession and high gas prices, auto firms are faced with another near-catastrophic increase in the cost of metals used in manufacturing. According to Reuters "commodity prices are rapidly escalating for many of the key components in cars, including a 24-percent increase in steel, a 73-percent increase in platinum, and a 10-percent increase in aluminum." A Lehman Brothers estimate is that this could ad $350 to the price of each car.

Some experts think car sales in the US could be as low as 15 million units this year, compared to 16.1 million in 2007. That could take $30 billion in sales that the car companies had last year completely out of the market.

Auto companies cannot increase retail prices to make up for the rising component costs. Most car companies are already offering incentives to move inventory off their lots.

The Ford and GM dreams of having North American profits in 2009 are now all but gone. The advantages of the UAW contract are already in place along with a multitude of other expense cuts. What is becoming clear is that none of that will be enough.

Douglas A. McIntyre

Douglas A. McIntyre

IPO FILING: Bostwick Laboratories, Inc. (BOST)

Bostwick Laboratories, Inc. submitted an IPO filing Friday, March 7. The filing shows a proposed maximum amount in securities as $100 million.  The underwriters are listed as Banc of America, Wachovia Securities, William Blair, and Cowen & Co. It has applied to trade on the NASDAQ Global Market under the symbol “BOST.”

Bostwick Laboratories is a specialized anatomic laboratory that focuses on cancer diagnosis. CEO and founder Dr. David Bostwick developed their service-focused business model in which the company builds strong relationships with referring physicians through their diagnostic services and continuing communication about innovations and service adjustments to better meet physician needs. This model allows physicians to make quick and informed treatment decisions.  In 2007, Bostwick generated $102.8 million in revenues with a net income of $2.3 million. Bostwick believes they have a solid market position with strong growth potential because the anatomic pathology market in 2006 touched $11.3 billion in revenue and is expected to grow at an average of 9% over the next few years, due to an aging US population and increased incidence of cancer.

While most markets gasp for air, the cancer market seems healthy as ever.

Rachel Lopez
March 10, 2008
 

Fed: An Emergency Rate Cut

The Fed may cut rates between now and its scheduled meeting on March 18, according to Goldman Sachs.

The firm said it had previously expected the cuts to come later. Reuters reports "Goldman said the Fed would drop the benchmark federal funds target rate to 2 percent by late April, most likely in two 50 basis-point steps at the next two meetings."

An emergency cut now would be an excellent idea. The prices of oil and agricultural commodities are going up regardless of US interest rates. They are now part of a global demand cycle which operates, to some extent, separate from the US market.

With oil-based products and gasoline taking more of the consumer dollar, a relief on the credit side would be more than welcome. The problem the Fed has is that most banks are not passing lower rates on to businesses and consumers.

Unless the Fed adopts a position that it expends lenders to take some of the benefit of lower rates and move them to customers repeated cutting may benefit the balance sheets at embattled banks. What it does for the balance of the economy is unclear.

Douglas A. McIntyre

Citigroup See $9 Billion Write-Downs At Investment Banks

The first quarter should be another brutal right of passage for big investment banks. Citigroup is forecasting that they will have to write-down another $9 billion in Q1. According to Reuters the damage will be "primarily driven by additional leveraged loan and mortgage-related losses."

Among the hardest hit firms will be Goldman Sachs (NYSE: GS) which is facing as much as a $3.2 billion write-off, Merrill Lynch (NYSE: MER) which may post $2.9 billion in write-downs, and Morgan Stanley (NYSE: MS) where the figure could be as high as $1.2 billion.

If the numbers are correct, it may open the door for another round of raising funds for the brokerages. Now that most of them have called on sovereign banks overseas, it will be essential that US private equity firms or Treasury help them out of the mounting mess. In all probability, existing shareholders will be diluted driving the share prices of the firms down again,

Douglas A. McIntyre

Tiptree, A Filing For Private Vulture Fund

Tiptree Financial Partners, L.P. has submitted a filing to sell securities, although this is not a traditional IPO.  This is a limited partnership holding company managed by Tricadia Capital that we’d describe on our own as a vulture fund.  The proposed maximum aggregate amount is listed as $139,225,455 on approximately 9.2 million LP units which the company does not intend to list on any national securities exchange, although it appears that an OTC listing may be possible. A $134 million private offering by the LP was completed on June 12, 2007.

Tiptree intends to acquire performing and distressed credit assets and related equity interests, including broadly syndicated and middle market corporate leveraged loans, mezzanine debt, unsecured debt, synthetic credit default swaps, synthetic credit indexes and tranches from synthetic credit indexes, consumer related debt and structured debt, such as ABS’s and CDO’s.   The company will also use capital to make joint ventures or acquisitions on specialty finance companies as well as alternative asset managers. Income will be generated from distributions and realized capital gains; the company generated $2.5 million in net income from June 12, 2007 to December 31, 2007.

This will be a private vulture fund, or at least the equivalent of one.  Some notable risk factors include:

  • Beginning with the third calendar quarter of 2007, there has been considerable dislocation in credit markets. If credit markets do not recover, it may not be able to implement our business strategy effectively;
  • Many assets will be illiquid or have limited liquidity, which may have limited or no resale;
  • Most assets will be rated below investment grade or unrated.

Rachel Lopez
March 10, 2008

EMC’s Value In Iomega Snubbed (IOM, EMC)

If you have followed mobile storage solutions for computing for more than a decade, you know Iomega Corp. (NYSE: IOM).  The company used to be the leader for its Zip Drives, but by now many mobile professionals carry around smaller flash drives that are small enough to fit into your pocket and even onto a key chain.

The company announced that it has received an unsolicited acquisition offer from EMC Corp. (NYSE: EMC) for $3.25 per share.  Apparently the board of directors has determined during a weekend board meeting that the unsolicited offer falls short of a proposed share purchase agreement with ExcelStor Great Wall Technology Limited, Shenzhen ExcelStor Technology Limited, Great Wall Technology Company Limited, ExcelStor Group Limited, and ExcelStor Holdings Limited.

Iomega noted that it made the determination based on valuation and a view that EMC used overly broad diligence consistencies.  Iomega and ExcelStor Holdings Limited are currently in the process of gaining regulatory and stockholder approval for the share purchase agreement announced December 12, 2007.

Iomega’s stock has traded as low as $2.26 and as high as $5.75 over the last year.  Despite many troubles or at least fierce competition, it’s really no surprise that Iomega would snub this offer.  Shares closed at $2.66 Friday and are up at $2.95 shortly after the open.

Jon C. Ogg
March 10, 2008

Blackstone Shows Muted 2008 For Private Equity (BX)

The Blackstone Group, LP (NYSE: BX) has posted earnings of $0.08 EPS before charges, while First Call had $0.19 as consensus.  The private equity giant also posted revenues of $447.5 million, compared to consensus estimates of $434.6 million.  After charges and after items, the company lost $170 million in the quarter.

Blackstone decided it would also initiate a strong dividend and it declared a quarterly distribution of $0.30 per common unit and reaffirms priority distributions to public common holders of $1.20 per year through 2009.

Blackstone has noted a backlog in the second half of 2007 along with poor fixed income securities performance and increased credit losses have all materially hindered lenders’ willingness to fund new, large-sized acquisitions.  We have already noted this for some time as the giant club deals are dead.

Further, Blackstone noted that the volume of new private equity acquisitions has materially declined and new private equity buyouts have been smaller in size, less leveraged, and under less favorable terms for the debt provided. Almost all of the terms are lower in the current environment, the transaction fees are lower, the number of deals is lower, and the rate of appreciation is lower.  Market conditions in the U.S. and Europe are expected to remain lower in 2008 and visibility is light.

Despite the current environment, Blackstone noted that it has made eight new private equity commitments since the credit crunch for some $2.7 billion of equity.  It also expects to see continue to new investment opportunities globally, particularly in Asia, and it will remain disciplined and opportunistic.

The stock is indicated down marginally at the open.

Jon C. Ogg
March 10, 2008

Nationwide Parent Wants To Take It Private… Going Mutual! (NFS)

Nationwide Financial Services, Inc. (NYSE: NFS) has received a proposal from Nationwide Mutual Insurance Company, Nationwide Mutual Fire Insurance Company and Nationwide Corporation, to acquire all of the outstanding Class A shares of common stock of NFS for $47.20 per share in cash.

Nationwide Mutual owns all of the outstanding shares of the Class B common stock, which already gives the company essentially a "total control" status.  This represents a 66.3% equity ownership and 95.2% of the combined total voting power.

Nationwide did set up an independent committee to review the offer that is comprised of independent and non-affiliated directors to consider the proposal, and it has noted that it will respond to this acquisition offer in due course after a full review and evaluation of terms.

Nationwide closed at $37.93 Friday, and shares are indicated up around $47.50 in early pre-market trading today.  Its 52-week trading range is $37.42 to $65.52.  As this is already a controlled entity, expecting a significantly higher bid may be a bit optimistic.  A slightly higher bid isn’t that hard to fathom. 

Jon C. Ogg
March 10, 2008

Keryx Joins Biotech Zombie Ranks (KERX)

Keryx Biopharmaceuticals, Inc. (NASDAQ: KERX) may have just joined the ranks of a biotech zombie, even if it doesn’t want to admit that.  The company announced that top-line results from its SUN-MICRO Phase III clinical trial of Sulonex for the treatment of diabetic nephropathy have failed to meet the primary objective of the study.  Unfortunately, this was Keryx’s lead product candidate.

The study was aimed to achieve therapeutic success at 6-months as compared to placebo. The results showed that Sulonex and the placebo appeared to be similar.  Interestingly enough, the company lost its CFO last summer.

It will focus efforts and resources on rapidly moving Zerenex forward for ESRD patients with hyperphosphatemia and Perifosine for cancer. It listed its goal of having Perifosine in a pivotal program this year and to be well into its Zerenex high-dose Phase II trial before the end of the year.

Keryx notes that while this is the end of one chapter, it is not the end of Keryx as it noted that it has built up a portfolio of potential product candidates.  Wall Street isn’t taking that at face value.  With the SUN-MICRO name, you’d think that disappointment there could have been expected. 

At the end of 2007 it had $62 million in cash and equivalents with another $2.296 million in long-term investments.  It also had $36.6 million in total liabilities.  Its market cap before today’s implosion was $230 million.  We don’t have to wonder for too long about how much capital it will have to burn through for these two other phase studies.

Keryx closed at $5.26 on Friday and its prior range over the last year had been $5.01 to $11.70.  Shares are trading down over 80% at $0.80 in pre-market activity.

Jon C. Ogg
March 10, 2008

Level 3 (LVLT) Captain Walks The Plank

Less than a month ago, 24/7 Wall St. put the awful performance of Level 3 (NASDAQ: LVLT) at the feet of the two men who have run the company for over a decade and also wrote that the board was asleep at the wheel.

This morning, the company’s president, Kevin O’Hara left the company. Shares are down 7% on the news. They should be rallying.

Douglas A. McIntyre

McDonald’s (MCD) Has Boffo February

McDonald’s amazed even itself with magnificent same-store sales in February. Ronald McDonald and the other clowns in management watched the firm post February comparable sales which increased 8.3% in the U.S. as McDonald’s market- leading breakfast, Premium Roast Coffee and everyday value offerings continue to fuel performance.

Sales in Europe were up 15.4% as Irishmen and Frog stuffed their arteries with the good stuff.

In Asia same-store figures moved up 10.9%.

Always a master of understatement McDonald’s Chief Executive Officer Jim Skinner said "Our focus on our customers around the world continues to deliver results and drive McDonald’s global business."