2009 Hurricane Season Outlook: Now 'Just Average'

The Colorado State University forecast team has predicted that the 2009 hurricane season will be an “average” Atlantic basin hurricane season year rather than a light year or heavy year.  This new forecast now anticipates 12 named storms forming in the Atlantic basin between the June 1 and November 30 Hurricane season, which is actually a lower estimate of 14 which it projected in December.  If there is one thing that oil and energy traders look at beyond the economy and demand for oil, it is how natural disasters will affect supply and demand in the U.S.

It noted that 6 of these storms are predicted to become hurricanes.  Of the six, 2 of these are expected to develop into intense or major hurricanes in the category 3-4-5 with sustained winds of 111 mph or greater.  Previously, it expected 7 hurricanes, with 3 being major hurricanes.

The findings are based on the potential for a weak El Nino event and an observed cooling of tropical Atlantic sea surface temperatures.  It said that it has seen an anomalous cooling of sea surface temperatures in the tropical Atlantic over the past few months.

Also noted by William Gray, “If El Nino conditions develop for this year’s hurricane season, it would tend to increase levels of vertical wind shear and decrease levels of Atlantic hurricane activity.”

As far as landfall percentages, this is being put at 54% for the U.S. coastline, rather than a historic number of 52%.

FULL DETAILS from Colorado State University.  Here my own personal pictures taken of Hurricane Ike damage immediately after the storm inside the Loop in Houston, although Houston was hit far lighter than Galveston and the surrounding areas.

Oils is down about $1.50 per barrel around the $49.50 mark this morning.

JON C. OGG