Boeing Forecasts Global Demand for 1.2 Million New Pilots, Techs by 2036

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At a meeting of aircraft enthusiasts in Oshkosh, Wisconsin, Monday morning, Boeing Co. (NYSE: BA) projected that global demand over the next 20 years for new commercial pilots, technicians and cabin crew would top 2.5 million. Of that total, Boeing forecast demand for 637,000 new pilots, 648,000 new technicians and 839,000 new cabin crew.

The outlook for 2017 indicates demand for new pilots will be 3.2% higher than the demand forecast in last year’s outlook. Demand for technicians is now expected to fall by 4.6% in 2017.

Boeing’s 20-year outlook for the global commercial aviation support market forecasts annual spending to more than double to $586 billion in 2036 and total spending for the 20-year period to reach nearly $8.55 trillion.

The majority of that projected 20-year spending estimate (53%, or $4.5 trillion) is expected to be directed at what Boeing calls ground, station and cargo operations. Maintenance and engineering spending is estimated at $2.3 trillion, flight operations spending is tagged and $1.1 trillion, and marketing, planning and customer service spending accounts for $465 billion.

Boeing further broke out future demand by region. The following list includes the region, 20-year demand for new pilots, demand for new technicians and demand for new cabin crew:

  • Asia-Pacific: 253,000 new pilots; 256,000 new techs; 308,000 new cabin crew
  • Europe: 106,000; 111,000; 173,000
  • North America: 117,000; 118,000; 154,000
  • Latin America: 52,000; 49,000; 52,000
  • Middle East: 63,000; 66,000; 96,000
  • Africa: 24,000; 23,000; 28,000
  • Russia/CIS: 22,000; 25,000; 28,000

CEO Dennis Muilenburg has set a target to grow Boeing’s global services business to $50 billion in a decade from a current total of around $15 billion. In late January of this year, Boeing claimed a 7% market share in the commercial aviation services business and a 9% market share in defense services.

Boeing’s stock traded up about 0.1% in the noon hour Monday, at $212.32, after posting a new 52-week high of $212.58. The stock’s 52-week low is $126.31, and the consensus 12-month price target is $201.18. Boeing is the best performing stock on the Dow for the year to date and has held that position for nearly the entire year.