Transportation

Domestic Flights Expected to Boom Over the Next 20 Years, but Mostly in One Country

Douglas A. McIntyre

Published: June 18, 2019 4:59 pm

Last Updated: March 13, 2020 4:58 pm

In most developed nations, airports are stacked with airplanes that carry hundreds of millions of people each year. Growth in air travel will drive a need for new planes. An industry study just released puts the figure at more than 44,000 new planes in the next 20 years.

Each year, the troubled aircraft maker, The Boeing Co., puts out new numbers that forecast the next 20 years of demand. The exact number of new planes delivered to airlines is expected to be 44,040 between 2019 and 2038. By far, the largest market for these new planes is Asia, and particularly China. Boeing forecasts 17,390 planes will be delivered in that region over the 20-year period. Boeing will vie with Airbus for almost the entire market.

Boeing’s annual commercial market outlook (CMO) also looks at how 20-year forecasts are updated each year. The market for new aircraft is up about 3% compared with last year’s CMO. Even larger than the market for new planes is the aviation services market that Boeing estimates will rise to $9.1 trillion by 2038. The total commercial market for 2038 is valued at $16 trillion.

For that period, Boeing forecasts a breakdown 44,040 new commercial jets by size. Single-aisle planes like the Boeing 737 and Airbus A320 account for nearly three-quarters of the demand, or 32,420 aircraft, valued at $3.78 trillion. About 19% of all commercial jets (8,340) entering the global fleet will be widebodies (twin-aisle) with a market value of around $2.65 trillion, while regional jets (2,240 aircraft, valued at $105 billion) and widebody freighters (1,040 aircraft, valued at $300 billion) bring the total value of new aircraft to $6.8 trillion.

Passenger traffic is expected to rise the most on domestic flights within China, which will displace the intra-North American market (United States and Canada) as the region with the most traffic in 2028. Flights within Europe will rank third, while traffic from Europe to North America is expected to be the fourth-most-heavily traveled routes — and these are the most popular domestic flights around the world.

More specifically, aircraft deliveries over the next 20 years will be weighted heavily toward the Asia-Pacific region, where 17,390 new planes will be delivered, nearly double the 9,130 forecast for deliveries in North America.

Interestingly, when Boeing evaluates the industry’s prospects over the next 20 years, trade issues, such as those currently threatening U.S. trade with China, are not even mentioned. By the middle of the next decade, China is expected to have developed its own single-aisle jet and, by decade’s end, could have a twin-aisle plane near first delivery. Competition from China-based aircraft makers could change demand from the only two companies, Boeing and Airbus, that make large commercial aircraft. That would be a game changer for the entire industry and may alter the balance of the planes used by the airlines that serve the world’s most tourist-friendly nations.