Edmunds Forecasts October Ford Sales to Fall 11%

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Automakers will be reporting U.S. October new car sales Tuesday, November 1, and analysts’ sales estimates have all rung in. On an annualized basis, the seasonally adjusted annual rate (SAAR) of sales in October of last year was 18.1 million light vehicles (cars, pickups and minivans). That number is forecast to decline to between 17.7 million and 17.9 million units.

Kelley Blue Book  has the high estimate of 17.9 million units, while J.D. Power/LMC Automotive estimate SAAR of 17.7 million. WardsAuto and Edmunds put the total at 17.8 million units.

Among the Detroit Three, Ford Motor Co. (NYSE: F) is expected to post the biggest year-over-year decline, according to the analysts at Edmunds. Ford’s sales are expected to drop 10.9% to 189,970 units, which is also 10.6% lower that September 2016 sales. The company’s market share is expected to slide from 14.6% in October 2015 and 14.2% in September 2016 to 14.0%.

Fiat Chrysler Automobiles N.V. (NYSE: FCAU) could post a unit sales decline of 10.6% year over year and 7.6% month over month to 178,245. Edmunds forecasts FCA’s market share at 13.1% for October, down from 13.7% a year ago and 13.5% in September.

General Motors Co. (NYSE: GM) is expected to post unit sales of 246,512 in October, down 6.3% year over year and 1.3% month over month. The company’s market share is expected to increase from 18.1% in October 2015 and 17.5% in September to 18.2%.

Edmunds expects Toyota Motor Corp. (NYSE: TM) to sell 189,995 units in October, down 6.9% compared with October 2015 and 3.7% compared with September. Toyota’s market share is forecast at 14.0%, flat with last year and up from 13.8% in September.

Honda Motor Co. Ltd. (NYSE: HMC) is expected to sell 125,162 units in October, down 4.9% from October 2015’s total and down 6.4% compared with September. Honda’s market share is forecast to rise from 9.0% a year ago to 9.2%, just 0.1 percentage point below September’s share.

The biggest loser in unit sales is Volkswagen. Edmunds is forecasting a unit sales drop of 17.6% year over year and 5.0% month over month. Sales are expected to total just 39,645 for the VW and Audi brands. Market share is forecast to drop from 3.3% last year to 2.9%, flat with September’s total.

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