The biggest thing to watch for in the FOMC Minutes is the effect of exceptionally low rates and other quantitative easing measures.  The minutes show that the group does not expect agency securities sale staking place before early 2015.  The view on how long these near-zero rates were far from being quite as clear as the “end of 2014” that was communicated.  Some see 2% in shorter rates as more appropriate by then.  The most see downside risks to GDP forecasts and upside risks to unemployment forecasts.  Another huge risk is the spillover effect risks coming from Europe.  If you just look at the tally of ‘majority’ versus others that are ‘some’ you may wonder how much you really like a more communicative Federal Reserve.

The FULL FOMC MINUTES from the January 24 to 25 meeting are here.

 

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