For the first 10 weeks of 2016, Goldman Sachs Group Inc. (NYSE: GS) has traded down about 14.6%, and it is the worst performer among the 30 stocks that comprise the Dow Jones Industrial Avenue. To say that the financial sector has been hit hard so far in 2016 is more than a mild understatement.
Financial sector stocks trade down about 6% for the year to date, but that’s a big improvement from the sector’s nearly 18% drop in mid-February. When the Federal Reserve in December raised its policy interest rate from a range of 0.00% to 0.25% to a new range of $0.25% to 0.50%, the move was viewed as positive for banks. That has not proved out.
Goldman missed fourth-quarter profit estimates by a mile and revenue was also light. The firm’s investment banking revenues were up 7% in the quarter, but the dearth of initial public offerings so far in 2016 cannot be a positive for the bank.
Fixed-income revenues, perhaps the bank’s bread-and-butter, fell 8% year over year in the quarter. Goldman feasted on commodities for several years, and now that sector continues its struggles. That leaves only currency hedging and the recent moves announced by the European Central Bank that could help boost revenues and profits in Goldman’s so-called FICC (fixed-income, currency, commodities) business.
On December 31, 2015, Goldman’s shares closed at $180.23. On Friday the shares closed at $153.94, up about 1.9% for the day but down about 1% for the week. The stock’s 52-week range is 139.05 to $218.77, and the consensus price target is $189.28. The high target is $245 and the low is $125.
Goldman is the second most heavily weighted stock among the Dow 30, at 6.12%. It has ceded its top weighting to 3M, which now carries a Dow weighting of 6.44%.