Agilon Health (AGL) Q3 2026: A $1.97 EPS Profit Where Analysts Expected a Loss

Agilon Health reported GAAP diluted EPS of $1.97 against a consensus estimate of negative $0.73, a swing of roughly 370%. Revenue of $1.52 billion came in about 4% ahead of the $1.46 billion estimate and rose 5.9% from the same quarter a year earlier. GAAP net income reached $34.9 million, compared with a net loss of $110.2 million in Q3 2025.

The single biggest driver was medical cost performance. The medical services expense ratio fell to 88.5% from 104.0% in the prior-year quarter, a dramatic improvement that reflects both better-than-expected burden-of-illness results and favorable claims development from the first half of 2026. The dollar amount of that claims development benefit was not separately quantified in the filing.

Encouraged by the results, management nearly doubled its full-year 2026 Adjusted EBITDA guidance, raising the range to $145 million to $155 million from a prior range of $75 million to $95 million. The full-year revenue outlook was also lifted, to $5.87 billion to $5.89 billion, and the updated MSER guidance improved to a range of 90.3% to 90.5% from the prior 91.4% to 91.9%.

The quarter is not without complications. Medicare Advantage membership declined 10% year over year, and the ACO model's Adjusted EBITDA contribution dropped to $11 million from $18 million in the year-ago period. Other medical expenses also rose sharply, to $78.0 million from $13.5 million. These crosscurrents matter for assessing how durable the profitability improvement will be.

Agilon posted losses of $6.30 and $6.75 per share in Q2 and Q3 of 2025, respectively, before beginning a recovery that now spans three consecutive beats. The Q3 2026 result is the largest upside surprise in that eight-quarter span, and management raised guidance alongside it.