Ameren beats Q3 2026 estimates and lifts guidance on data center demand

Ameren posted adjusted earnings of $2.42 per diluted share for the third quarter of 2026, beating expectations. Revenue grew from the same period a year earlier and came in above estimates. The quarter marks the sixth consecutive period in which the St. Louis-based utility has topped the EPS consensus.

The outperformance was driven primarily by higher earnings on infrastructure investments aimed at improving system reliability and resiliency, alongside stronger Ameren Missouri electric retail sales attributed to warmer seasonal temperatures. Those gains more than offset a rise in operations and maintenance costs tied to reliability-focused tree trimming and energy center upkeep, as well as higher interest expense.

Management raised full-year 2026 EPS guidance and introduced 2027 guidance of $5.70 to $5.90, which the company says represents growth from the original 2026 guidance midpoint. The long-term outlook extends through 2031, anchored by planned infrastructure investment and continued rate base growth. Ameren also expects diluted EPS to grow at a compound annual rate from 2027 through 2031.

Data center demand is now explicitly cited by management as a key catalyst behind the multi-year load growth outlook. CEO Martin J. Lyons, Jr. noted that the updated long-term outlook reflects significant investments needed to serve growing demand from large customers, with large-load customers having signed electric service agreements with Ameren Missouri in 2026. Realization of that forecasted data center and large-load demand is listed among the company's key risks, meaning the growth case depends on those contracts converting to actual consumption.

Investors will want to monitor the outcome of Ameren Missouri's electric rate review filed with the Missouri Public Service Commission in June 2026, as well as Ameren Illinois's appeal of a November 2025 ICC natural gas rate order. Potential changes to renewable and battery storage tax credit eligibility under federal legislation are also flagged as a risk to the company's Smart Energy Plan generation and storage investments.