ArcelorMittal MT Q2 2026 Earnings Miss Offset by Second-Half Outlook
As seen on the 24/7 Wall St. homepage on July 30, 2026.
ArcelorMittal missed both top and bottom lines as EBITDA momentum swung sharply upward, raising odds of a second-half catch-up driven by new EU trade protections and restart of shuttered mills across Europe. Management is guiding for all segments to ship more in the second half than the first half, counter to seasonal trends.
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ArcelorMittal reported Q2 2026 earnings per share of $0.90, falling roughly 17% short of the $1.09 consensus estimate. Revenue of $16.76 billion also came in just under the $17.07 billion Wall Street had expected, a miss of about 1.8%. The back-to-back top- and bottom-line shortfalls continue a pattern the company has wrestled with: in Q2 2025 EPS came in at $1.32 against an estimate of $1.81, and Q4 2024 produced a similar gap of $0.52 reported versus $0.73 expected.
Despite the headline misses, EBITDA momentum swung sharply upward during the quarter, which management cited as a foundation for recovery. The company is guiding for all of its segments to ship more steel in the second half of 2026 than in the first half — a stance that runs counter to typical seasonal patterns for the industry. Management pointed to new EU trade protections and the restart of shuttered mills across Europe as the primary drivers behind that unusually bullish second-half posture.
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Investors will want to watch whether the EBITDA improvement translates into earnings-per-share recovery as those restarted European mills ramp output. The last two quarters in which ArcelorMittal beat estimates — Q1 2026 at $0.75 versus a $0.71 estimate, and Q3 2025 at $0.62 versus $0.55 — both came in periods of relatively modest consensus expectations, suggesting the bar for a positive surprise may be achievable if volume guidance holds.