Bloomin' Brands (BLMN) Q3 2026: Beat on Sales, But Traffic Still Sliding

Bloomin' Brands posted an adjusted loss of $0.17 per share for Q3 2026, beating expectations. Revenue came in at $944.3 million, also topping expectations and rising from the same period a year ago. The quarter is typically the company's weakest, so the smaller-than-expected loss carries real weight heading into the year-end stretch.

The headline beat, however, was partly shaped by a one-time accounting change. A $13.2 million gift card breakage recognition boosted GAAP revenue and lifted reported margins, but was excluded from adjusted results. The gap between the GAAP diluted loss of $0.02 per share and the adjusted loss of $0.17 matters for anyone trying to gauge underlying momentum, because the adjusted restaurant-level operating margin actually slipped to 9.3% from 9.5%, as inflation in commodities, labor and operating costs ate into pricing gains.

The traffic picture is the central tension in the Outback turnaround story. Combined U.S. comparable restaurant sales rose 1.9%, but that gain was entirely driven by average check per person rising 3.7%, while traffic fell 1.8%. Customers who do show up are spending more, with fewer of them walking through the door. CEO Mike Spanos highlighted five consecutive quarters of year-over-year improvement in Outback guest scores, but that goodwill has not yet translated into volume recovery.

One notable strategic move: the company entered a stalking horse agreement to acquire 61 restaurants from Outback's largest U.S. franchisee, which is currently in Chapter 11 proceedings. If completed, the deal would bring a significant block of locations back under corporate control, though it also introduces integration risk and exposure to the financial condition of the acquired units.

On the guidance front, management raised its full-year adjusted diluted EPS outlook to $0.97 to $1.02, up from the prior range of $0.90 to $1.00. The full-year U.S. comparable sales expectation was narrowed to 1% to 1.5%, from a prior ceiling of 2%, signaling a more cautious view on volume for the remainder of the year. For Q4 2026, the company guided for U.S. comparable sales of 0% to 1% and adjusted diluted EPS of $0.07 to $0.12.