Casella Waste Systems Q3 2026: First Miss in Two Years Explained

Casella Waste Systems broke a two-year streak of beating analyst expectations in its third quarter of fiscal 2026, with adjusted diluted earnings of $0.35 per share missing the $0.38 consensus estimate. Revenue of $559.2 million also came in below the $562.9 million expectation, though the miss was narrow at less than 1%. The underlying business continued to grow, while a single project write-off did most of the damage.

The largest drag on the quarter was a $13.6 million non-cash impairment charge tied to the termination of the Granite State Landfill greenfield project. That write-off, along with $6.3 million in acquisition expenses and $1.4 million in organizational transformation costs, pushed the GAAP result to a per-share loss of $0.11. Adjusted EBITDA margin compressed to 23.9% from 24.7% a year earlier, a direct consequence of absorbing those charges.

Despite the miss, revenue still grew 15.2% year over year, driven by acquisitions and solid waste pricing strength across collection and landfill operations. The company also acquired six businesses in the first nine months of 2026, adding more than $170 million in aggregate annualized revenues. Floating fuel fees continued to buffer the business against volatile fuel costs.

The quarter's stumble extended to the full-year outlook in a meaningful way. Management now guides to a full-year net loss of $10 million to $4 million, reversing prior guidance for net income of zero to $6 million. On the more operationally focused metrics, full-year revenue guidance was raised to $2.10 billion to $2.11 billion and Adjusted Free Cash Flow guidance was reaffirmed at $200 million to $210 million.

CEO Ned Coletta pointed to an improving Mid-Atlantic region as a reason for near-term confidence, noting that October Mid-Atlantic Adjusted EBITDA margins were up roughly 150 basis points from August and more than 300 basis points year over year. Looking further out, management expressed confidence in strong 2027 growth and committed to at least 300 basis points of Adjusted EBITDA margin expansion over the next three years, a target that will be closely watched given the compression this quarter.