Grupo Cibest (CIB) Q3 2026: Revenue Surges but Margin Squeeze Clips Earnings

Grupo Cibest's third quarter of 2026 presented investors with a sharp split: revenue of $9.23 trillion cleared the consensus estimate by 15.48%, yet earnings per ADS of $2.66 came in 4.1% shy of the $2.77 consensus, missing expectations. The strong top line and the weak bottom line come down to what happened inside the bank's lending book and funding costs.

Net interest margin narrowed 51 basis points to 7.43%, the most consequential single number in the report. The compression reflects a deliberate commercial lending strategy that prioritized differentiated pricing to grow the gross loan portfolio, which rose 4.31% quarter over quarter, alongside weaker results from fixed-income instruments and rising funding costs. Cost of deposits climbed 10 basis points to 4.50%, pushed higher by institutional time and savings deposits and Colombia's elevated benchmark rate, now at 12.25%.

Provisions were another drag, jumping 16.77% sequentially to $1.19 trillion and lifting the cost of credit to 1.80%. Credit card balances and UVR mortgage loans showed measurable deterioration, and one-off charges for select commercial clients in agriculture, construction, and manufacturing added to the pressure. Nequi, the digital payments unit, contributed a COP 39.0 billion extraordinary provision tied to its September 1 transition into an independent financing company.

Looking back across recent quarters, the miss follows a period of mostly positive earnings surprises. The bank beat estimates in each of the four quarters ending Q3 2025, then fell short in Q4 2025, Q1 2026, and again now in Q3 2026, with the outsized Q2 2026 beat of $3.32 against a $2.14 estimate partly explained by a COP 153 billion deferred tax reversal and foreign-exchange gains on proceeds from the June sale of Banistmo. Neither of those tailwinds repeated in Q3.

On the strategic front, the Banistmo divestiture for USD 1.418 billion and Nequi's spinout signal a deliberate narrowing of focus toward Colombia and core Central American markets. Digital engagement remains a longer-term offset, with 9.3 million active Mi Bancolombia app users and 23.8 million active Nequi accounts. Management projects Colombian GDP growth of 2.6% for full-year 2026, with inflation expected to close at 6.7%, a macro backdrop that keeps the pressure on margins and credit quality for the foreseeable future.