Why the oil-driven dip in aerospace and defense looks like a buying window
As seen on the 24/7 Wall St. homepage on October 10, 2026.
Borgeat is calling the jet-fuel squeeze a buying window for aerospace, pointing to locked-in defense contracts and a market he pegs at 6-7% annual growth. The tweet he quotes sees Brent running to 126 before peaking around the US midterms.
Load up on $ITA The aerospace sector has some of the most unique fundamentals and structural tailwinds. High barriers to entry—for example, in turbines—long-term contracts—for example, in defense—and an underlying market growing 6–7% annually. Currently under pressure due to https://t.co/WpfUuJggFi [Quoted @arvyMacroCycles]: Brent: we expect one more leg up. Break 113 → 126, worst case 140. Oil vol is still too low for a real top. Our timing window for the peak: around the US mid-terms. The reversal after that could be the trigger for the big risk bottom. https://t.co/BFOYYUezNA
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Thierry Borgeat is framing the current pressure on the iShares U.S. Aerospace and Defense ETF as an entry point. His argument rests on the structural makeup of the sector: high barriers to entry in turbine manufacturing, long-duration defense contracts that lock in revenue, and an underlying market he puts at 6 to 7% annual growth.
The near-term headwind Borgeat points to is oil, with arvy Macro Cycles expecting Brent crude to break above 113. Elevated jet-fuel costs squeeze airline margins and dampen sentiment across the aerospace supply chain, even when defense fundamentals remain intact.
The same quoted analysis provides a timing frame: arvy Macro Cycles pegs the Brent peak as likely around the U.S. midterms, after which it sees a reversal serving as the catalyst for a broader risk-asset recovery. For Borgeat, that sequence means the oil pressure weighing on aerospace names now has a plausible expiration date.
The thesis hinges on the sector's structural tailwinds (locked-in contracts and controlled competition in key subsystems) insulating long-term returns even as fuel-cost sentiment creates a temporary overhang. Investors watching this trade will want to track Brent's path toward 113 as the level that either validates or delays the setup.
Mentioned: ITA