LyondellBasell Q3 2026: What Ended the Momentum After Q2's Price Spike

LyondellBasell posted adjusted earnings of $2.54 per diluted share for Q3 2026, missing expectations as the conflict-driven petrochemical price spike that powered a standout Q2 faded. Neither earnings nor revenue held the line.

The sharpest pressure came from the O&P Americas segment, where EBITDA excluding identified items dropped to $641 million from $1.27 billion in Q2. Softening polymer and olefin prices drove most of that swing. O&P EAI added to the drag, hurt by lower polymer prices, reduced volumes after a European asset sale, and the absence of an emissions-credit gain that had padded Q2.

The offset came from Intermediates and Derivatives, where EBITDA roughly doubled to $795 million. Stronger oxyfuels margins and higher volumes after the Bayport PO/TBA unit restart drove most of that improvement. GAAP diluted EPS came in at $2.32, with the gap to the adjusted figure reflecting identified items tied primarily to European site closure costs.

Operating cash flow of $1.7 billion shows the business still converting profit to cash even as segment results swing. Management repaid a EUR 500 million note maturity in September and continues to execute its Cash Improvement Plan, keeping the balance sheet on a deleveraging path.

For Q4, the company is guiding North American O&P operating rates at 85%, with a seasonal working-capital release expected. Management was explicit that any return to pre-conflict Middle East conditions will be non-linear and take longer than anticipated, so the pricing tailwind that defined much of 2026 is not assumed to snap back quickly. Polyethylene demand and oxyfuels margins remain supportive, while a planned North American polypropylene maintenance outage adds a headwind.