MDU Resources Q3 2026: EPS Misses, but Bakken East Bet Is On

MDU Resources Group reported adjusted earnings per share of $0.08 for the third quarter of 2026, missing the consensus estimate of roughly $0.10. Revenue of $347.8 million came in ahead of the $346.5 million estimate and rose 10.4% from a year earlier.

The earnings shortfall traced to the natural gas distribution and pipeline segments, where several specific costs piled up at once. A decision to discontinue the Knott Landfill renewable natural gas project produced a $2.1 million net-of-tax loss, and advisory costs tied to the Bakken East Pipeline that could not be capitalized added another $0.5 million net of tax. Higher operating and maintenance expenses, including payroll, compounded the drag.

The electric utility carried the quarter: new rates across North Dakota, Montana, and Wyoming added revenue, the Badger Wind Farm contributed to earnings, and electric retail sales volumes rose 9.3%. Data center sales jumped 18.4%, reflecting the growing large-load customer demand that management has flagged as a long-term tailwind.

The headline strategic development this quarter was the board's final investment decision on the Bakken East Pipeline. The project, estimated to cost between $2.8 billion and $3.1 billion, would run roughly 350 miles with initial capacity of 1.4 billion cubic feet per day, with phased in-service dates targeted for late 2029 and late 2030. MDU is evaluating financing options, including bringing in financial or strategic investors, while WBI Energy retains majority ownership.

Despite the quarterly earnings miss, management reaffirmed 2026 EPS guidance of $0.93 to $1.00 and held its long-term EPS growth target of 6% to 8%. Planned capital expenditures for 2026 stand at $594 million across the electric, natural gas distribution, and pipeline segments. The FERC Section 7(c) application for Bakken East is expected in the fourth quarter of 2026, making regulatory progress the most immediate milestone to track.